Not that anyone should expect UNCLOS’s judgment, when rendered, will do much to clear things up overnight, or even in the short to medium term. Firstly, China is not offering a counter-submission and will not recognize the current process if a judgment is issued against it. Secondly, this court has no decision-making powers over territorial rights. That needs to be done through the International Court of Justice, and all the disputing parties have to agree to bring a case to this body – something that has so far proved impossible.
The main likely outcome of this current case will be to strengthen the principle that international law has a role to play in the ultimate resolution of the contesting claims. Whether Vietnam, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and other actors in this issue will line up with the Philippines and agree with this, let alone China, is a moot point. All of them have different agendas. But for all of them, except China, it is in their interests to do so.
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