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South China Sea’s judgement day

Ruling on dispute between China and the Philippines will be meaningful, even if it doesn’t quickly lead to resolution

KERRY BROWN

JULY 2015

An important ruling is imminent on contesting claims in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines. But will it hold any water, and what is the significance?

A significant judgement is expected some time this month in the Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Brought by the Philippines against China, it will be the first time that legal experts in an international court will opine on matters related to the contesting claims in the South China Sea.

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This is because, with the Philippines, they share one major bone of contention, which this judgment might clear up a little more – and that is about the now infamous nine-dash line asserted by China, which stretches almost 1,500 kms from the coast of Hainan, China’s most southerly point. This violates the principle of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) allowing separate countries 200 Nautical Miles of space around their coastal regions, skirting the edges of Malaysian, Vietnamese, Philippine and, at some point, Indonesian, territory. Broadly, the Philippines is stating that the nine-dash line violates this and needs to be questioned, and, even better for them, shown to be invalid.

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This alone means that no country involved is going to lie down and simply concede on this issue. At the moment, a complex series of claims, based on different arguments, spreads across the various features of the area. What constitutes an island has become important because of the stipulation under UNCLOS that this gives rights to extensive maritime areas around it – up to 200 nautical miles. Thus the attempts to define even features which most of the time are submerged under water as islands.  Since 2009, spats between contesting parties, some of them including the Philippines, have increased. Most of these have involved fishing or lifeguard vessels. But everyone knows they are proxy for harder, military assets. Even the United States has been increasingly sucked in, protesting neutrality but evidently keen to see China’s space pinned back and its grand claims circumscribed. More’s the pity, however, that the US is not a signatory to UNCLOS, somewhat eroding its moral authority here.

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Despite this, tactically just one legal judgment spreading a little legal light on the issues in the region would be significant. It would, ever so slightly, increase the role of law, not history or political might, as the most sustainable route to an eventual resolution of the South China Sea travails. For that reason, the Philippine move is an important one, and its outcome, beyond all the arcane details and the confusing context, potentially highly meaningful.


Kerry Brown is a Professor of Chinese Politics and Director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and an Associate Fellow of Chatham House, London

http://www.policyforum.net/south-china-seas-judgement-day/#sthash.7YSBvr7v.dpuf

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WASHINGTON — Some truths are best left unsaid, particularly in polite company. So it came as somewhat of a surprise when an analyst at Deutsche Bank posed the following question to Marillyn Hewson, the CEO of Lockheed Martin, in a recent conference call with investors: “If the U.S. does move toward the normalization with Iran over nuclear activities, does that in any way impede what you see as progress in the foreign military sales front there?” The question carries additional weight now that Iran has agreed to a framework deal that would curb its nuclear activities for the next decade and beyond.

The implication of the analyst’s question – which was uncovered by Lee Fang, a journalist at The Intercept – is that a reduction of tensions in the Middle East could be bad news for Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest arms-producing corporation.

-"Why war is bad for people but good for business" by William Hartung, Apr. 25, 2015, http://www.japantoday.com/category/opinions/view/why-war-is-bad-for-people-but-good-for-business

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Hehehe... naka tsamba diay meh

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