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Sunday Book Review

Sea Change
‘Asia’s Cauldron,’ by Robert D. Kaplan

By IAN MORRIS
April 17, 2014
International New York Times


An American warship in Da Nang for joint U.S.-Vietnamese naval exercises in 2011, a reflection of increased tensions in the South China Sea. Credit Hoang Dinh Nam/Agence France-Press—Getty Images


This is the latest in a series of insightful books, like “The Revenge of Geography” and “The Coming Anarchy,” in which Robert D. Kaplan, the chief geopolitical analyst at the global intelligence company Stratfor, tries to explain how geography determines destiny — and what we should be doing about it. “Asia’s Cauldron” is a short book with a powerful thesis, and it stands out for its clarity and good sense from the great mass of Western writing on what Chinese politicians have taken to calling their “peaceful development.” If you are doing business in China, traveling in Southeast Asia or just obsessing about geopolitics, you will want to read it.

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The parallel Kaplan draws is straightforward and convincing. Between 1898 and 1914, the United States defeated Spain and dug the Panama Canal. This allowed Americans to link and dominate the trade of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, transforming the meaning of geography. “It was domination of the Greater Caribbean Basin,” Kaplan concludes, “that gave the United States effective control of the Western Hemisphere, which, in turn, allowed it to affect the balance of power in the Eastern Hemisphere.”

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Throughout the book, Kaplan tempers hard-nosed geopolitics with an engaging mix of history and travelogue (no reader is likely to forget his evocative comparisons of Hanoi and Saigon or his description of Borneo’s water villages) and also stresses the differences between the two cases as well as the similarities. Probably the biggest of these differences is that in the 1890s the revisionist power in the ­Caribbean — the United States — was militarily stronger than Spain, the status quo power, whereas in the 2010s the revisionist power in the South China Sea — China — is militarily weaker than America, the status quo power.

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These sentences might tempt readers to lump Kaplan into the company of “declinists,” writers who rejoice in announcing the imminent fall of the American Empire, but that would be too simple. ­Kaplan is in fact a leading proponent of the theory of international relations known as realism, which traces its ancestry back nearly 2,500 years to Thucydides. Kaplan is explicit about his intellectual debt to this tough-minded ancient Greek and, like him, glories in stripping away fondly held illusions to reveal the harsh reality of governments nakedly pursuing their own self-interest without concern for values, beliefs or ideology.

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The heroes in Kaplan’s story are hard, pragmatic men who recognize this, men like Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew (“head and shoulders above most other leaders worldwide in the 20th century”) and China’s Deng Xiaoping (“one of the great men of the 20th century”). Realists to their core, both regularly turned on a dime, ditching what had once seemed to be deeply held convictions. Neither had much time for democracy; nor, it seems, does Kaplan. Admitting that such thoughts are “heretical to an enlightened Western mind,” he writes that “if you left the South China Sea issue to the experts and to the elites in the region, the various disputes would have a better chance of being solved than if you involved large populations in a democratic process, compromised as they are by their emotions.”

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Poor Southeast Asia. So far from God, so close to China.


ASIA’S CAULDRON
The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific
By Robert D. Kaplan
225 pp. Random House. $26.


Correction: May 11, 2014

A review on April 20 about “Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific,” by Robert D. Kaplan, referred incorrectly to “Finlandization,” a concept the author applies by analogy to China’s relations with its neighbors. The term describes the Soviet Union’s influence on Finland during the Cold War, not Russia’s pressure on the country during the czarist period.


http://www.nytimes.com/

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PHILIPPINES SUBMITS MEMORIAL

Today, the Philippines submitted its Memorial to the Arbitral Tribunal that is hearing the case it brought against the People’s Republic of China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in January 2013.

The Philippines’ Memorial was submitted in conformity with the Rules of Procedure adopted by the five-member Arbitral Tribunal last August, which established 30 March 2014 as the due date for its submission.

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Volumes II through X contain the documentary evidence and maps that support the Philippines’ claims, all of which are cited in Volume I.  Volumes II through X consist of more than 3,700 pages, including more than 40 maps, for a total submission of nearly 4,000 pages.

The Memorial is the result of an enormous, collaborative effort by the extremely capable and dedicated legal team that has been serving the Philippines in this important case, headed by Solicitor General Francis Jardeleza and a team of lawyers from various agencies, including the OSG, DFA, DOJ, and the Office of the President.

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We are also most grateful to our international legal advisers led by
Paul Reichler and his team of international lawyers, including Mr. Lawrence H. Martin, Professor Bernard H. Oxman, Professor Philippe Sands, and Professor Alan Boyle for their invaluable guidance and assistance.

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Under the Rules of Procedure, the Arbitral Tribunal will decide on next steps and advise the Parties.  The Philippines will follow the guidance of the Arbitral Tribunal in regard to the publication of the Memorial.

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Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea demand a U.S. response

By Elizabeth Economy and Michael Levi
Published: May 16, 2014

The China National Overseas Oil Corporation (CNOOC) began drilling in Vietnamese-claimed waters last week, accompanied by more than 70 vessels, including armed Chinese warships. At first glance, this might look like merely another front in China’s quest for natural resources, which has taken Chinese companies to seemingly every corner of the earth.

Yet what is happening in the South China Sea is actually far more dangerous than what has come before — and the forces driving it go well beyond pursuit of energy riches. The United States needs to face up to the full magnitude of the Chinese challenge to have any hope of successfully confronting it. This means not only tough talk but also a willingness to take difficult action.

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Two other forces are essential to understanding what is going on. One is nationalism: The drilling is taking place near the Paracel Islands, which sit within a disputed area of the South China Sea, roughly 120 miles from Vietnam’s coast and well within Vietnam’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone. But China claims the islands based on historical usage and effective exercise of sovereignty, having occupied them since 1974. Backing off from the Paracels would deal a blow to China’s prestige, while underlining Chinese control over the islands would strengthen the leadership’s legitimacy at home.

Chinese leaders are also motivated by a desire to control the sea lanes of the South China Sea. More than $5 trillion of trade passes through the increasingly crowded waters each year. That includes almost one-third of world seaborne oil trade and more than three-quarters of Chinese oil imports (as well as most of the oil destined for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan). The Chinese navy may be too weak to challenge U.S. dominance in key Middle East sea lanes, or even to exercise control over the critical Straits of Malacca, but by operating naval forces across the South China Sea it can gain greater confidence that the United States will not be able to disrupt its supplies.

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The United States has said it won’t take a stand on the sovereignty dispute and has called on the two parties to resolve their differences peacefully. This is not enough: The United States ought to call China’s bluff and make clear the real stakes. The United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should present a unified front in refusing to recognize unilateral assertions of claims in disputed territories.

Even more important, the United States must be prepared to give life to its rhetorical position. Although it does not have a treaty obligation to defend Vietnam, its rebalancing to Asia is premised on its role as the primary guarantor of stability in the Pacific. Chinese actions challenge that.

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Q&A: South China Sea dispute 

BBC News, 8 May 2014


Tensions between the Philippines and China over overlapping claims has risen in recent months

Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries - but a recent upsurge in tension has sparked concern that the area is becoming a flashpoint with global consequences.

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Who claims what?

China claims by far the largest portion of territory - an area defined by the "nine-dash line" which stretches hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan. Beijing says its right to the area comes from 2,000 years of history where the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation.

In 1947 China issued a map detailing its claims. It showed the two island groups falling entirely within its territory. Those claims are mirrored by Taiwan, as the Republic of China.

Vietnam hotly disputes China's historical account, saying China had never claimed sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s. Vietnam says it has actively ruled over both the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century - and has the documents to prove it.

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Why are so many countries involved?

The Paracels and the Spratlys may have reserves of natural resources around them. There has been little detailed exploration of the area, so estimates are largely extrapolated from the mineral wealth of neighbouring areas.

The sea is also a major shipping route and home to fishing grounds that supply the livelihoods of people across the region.


Vietnamese protesters mark China's seizure of the Paracels in 1974

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The Philippines has accused China of building up its military presence in the Spratlys. In early 2012, the two countries engaged in a lengthy maritime stand-off, accusing each other of intrusions in the Scarborough Shoal.

In July 2012 China formally created Sansha city, an administrative body with its headquarters in the Paracels which it says oversees Chinese territory in the South China Sea - including the Paracels and the Spratlys. Both Vietnam and the Philippines protested against this move.

Unverified claims that the Chinese navy deliberately sabotaged two Vietnamese exploration operations in late 2012 led to large anti-China protests on the streets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

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The Philippines has a rusting vessel beached on the Second Thomas Shoal, which China also claims

Is anyone trying to resolve the row?

Over the years, China has tended to favour bilateral arrangements negotiated behind closed doors - but other countries want international mediation.

Even if the Philippines is successful in its attempts to pursue China at a UN tribunal, however, China would not be obliged to abide by the ruling.

Recent attempts by regional grouping Asean to discuss new ideas for resolving the dispute appear to have left the bloc severely divided.

http://www.bbc.com/

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Overview

The Scarborough Shoal is claimed by both China and the Philippines. Taiwan also claims the shoal as part of its territory. On April 8, 2012, a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted eight Chinese fishing vessels docked at the waters of Scarborough shoal. BRP Gregorio del Pilar was sent on the same day by the Philippine Navy to survey the vicinity of the shoal, and confirmed the presence of the fishing vessels and their ongoing activities. On April 10, 2012, BRP Gregorio del Pilar came to inspect the catch of the fishing vessels. The Filipino inspection team claimed that they discovered illegally collected corals, giant clams and live sharks inside the first vessel boarded by the team. BRP Gregorio del Pilar reported that they attempted to arrest the Chinese fishermen but were blocked by Chinese maritime surveillance ships, China Marine Surveillance 75 (Zhongguo Haijian 75) and China Marine Surveillance 84 (Zhongguo Haijian 84). Since then, tensions have continued between the two countries.

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Cyber attack exchanges

Hackers suspected to be from China, defaced the website of the University of the Philippines on April 20. The hackers left a message claiming, “We come from China! Huangyan Island is Ours,”. On April 21 “Anonymous #Occupy Philippines” retaliated and attacked the China University Media Union website, defacing its homepage with an image of a Guy Fawkes mask. The hacker said, "Chinese government is clearly retarded. Scarborough Shoal is ours!”. The website of the University of the Philippines was back online at the same day. After the attacks, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III’s deputy spokesperson Abigail Valte said that it didn't appear that the attacks would have any negative effect on the talks by Manila and Beijing to find a diplomatic solution to the standoff, and urged both Filipinos and Chinese to refrain from escalating tensions. Philippine websites of Official Gazette, the Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning Office, and the Presidential Museum and Library were also defaced in April. On May 4, hackers defaced the websites of The Philippine Star newspaper.

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Suspension of tours to the Philippines

Most Chinese travel agencies suspended tours to the Philippines due to the standoff over the Scarborough shoal. Tourists from China makes about 9% of total arrivals to the Philippines according to the Philippine Department of Tourism.

The state-owned China Travel Service, Shanghai Tourism Bureau and Ctrip.com suspended all tours to the Philippines indefinitely citing the anti-Chinese sentiment in the country and for the safety of Chinese nationals.

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May 11 Hong Kong protests

Hong Kong activists organized a protest on May 11, to reiterate China's claim over the Scarborough shoal near the Philippine Consulate in Hong Kong. The protesters sent an open letter to the authorities claiming that the Scarborough shoal has been a Chinese territory since 1279 during the Yuan Dynasty. They also accuse the Philippines in inciting anti-China demonstration among Filipinos and disrupting Chinese fishermen in the shoal.

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Fishing ban

The Chinese government unilaterally imposed a fishing ban in the South China Sea, where the Scarborough shoal lies, lasting from May 16 to August 1. Since 1999, China has been imposing the annual summer fishing ban, which covers fishermen, regardless of nationality. Mono-layer gillnets, and hook and line fishing is not covered by the ban.

The Philippines does not recognize the Chinese fishing ban but has imposed its own fishing ban. The Filipino fishing ban lasted from May 16 to July 15 and the Philippine Coast Guard will bar Filipino fishermen from the shoal. President Benigno Aquino III insisted that the ban was for the preservation of the marine resources. Fish aggregating devices were installed in the municipal waters of Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig and Iba in Zambales, as well as in La Union, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte to ensure the livelihoods of affected Filipino fishermen. As of June 26, fishing vessels, together with paramilitary ships, are still in Scarborough shoal despite the Chinese fishing ban still effect.

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Continued Chinese presence

Under a 2012 deal mediated by the United States, China and the Philippines promised to withdraw their forces from the shoal until a deal over its ownership could be reached. The Philippines complied with the agreement and withdrew. China, however, did not abide the agreement and maintained its presence at the shoal, effectively militarizing it. Philippine president Benigno S. Aquino III later compared China's behavior to Nazi Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia.

By July 2012, China had erected a barrier to the entrance of the shoal, according to the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs. Since then, vessels belonging to the China Marine Surveillance and Fisheries Law Enforcement Command have been observed in the nearby disputed shoal and Chinese government vessels have been turning away Filipino vessels sailing to the area. In response, the Philippines has stated that it would be preparing to resend vessels to the shoal, in what has been described as a "cold standoff". By January 2014, China continued to maintain a presence within the shoal, among heightened tensions regarded a new law which requires non-Chinese fishing boats to seek permission from China when in the South China Sea, however Philippine fishing boats were able to fish around the shoal without Chinese interaction.

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  India – The Indian Ministry of External Affairs said that, "Maintenance of peace and security in the region is of vital interest to the international community. India urges both countries to exercise restraint and resolve the issue diplomatically according to principles of international law."

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  Pakistan – Pakistan Ambassador to China Masood Khan said in an ambassador's forum in the China Women's University said that "Pakistan is with China" on the Scarborough shoal incident.

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  Taiwan – Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou hoped that the conflict will be solved "peaceful manner" but he also reiterate that Taiwan "will still continue to uphold sovereign claims over the South China Sea.”

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  Vietnam – Vietnamese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi said that Vietnam is "deeply concerned" over the Scarborough shoal incident. He stressed that "concerned parties need to practise restraint and peacefully resolve the disputes based on international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 and the Declaration on Conduct of the Parties in the East Sea (DOC), to maintain peace, stability, security and maritime safety in the East Sea and region."

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as of 30 march 2014, the philippines has submitted a memorial in its case against china. 

Defying China’s warnings, the Philippines on Sunday pressed ahead with the submission of a crucial arbitration document packed with evidence and legal arguments seeking to invalidate China’s massive claim over the South China Sea.

Ignoring a possible backlash from China, the Philippine government transmitted the document, called a “memorial” in international arbitration parlance, to the Netherlands-based Permanent Court of Arbitration where a five-member tribunal operating under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea will hear Manila’s complaint.

“Today, the Philippines submitted its memorial to the arbitral tribunal that is hearing the case it brought against the People’s Republic of China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario told a news conference.

“With firm conviction, the ultimate purpose of our memorial is our national interest.”

Manila declined to release a copy of the memorial as it has yet to be reviewed by the court.

But Del Rosario said the document consists of “ten volumes with maps” with “nearly 4,000 pages” and will fortify the Philippine case, which seeks to declare China’s claim as illegal. A hard copy will be forwarded to the tribunal on Monday.

The document, he said, “contains the Philippine analysis of the applicable law and the relevant evidence, and demonstrates that the arbitral tribunal has jurisdiction over all the claims made by the Philippines.”

It will be used by the tribunal to determine if the Philippine case has legal merit under international law, and if the court has jurisdiction over it, Del Rosario said.

“Every claim is meritorious,” he said. “It sets out the specific relief sought by the Philippines in regard to each of its claims, and shows why it is entitled to such relief.”

“It is about seeking not just any kind of resolution but a just and durable solution grounded on international law,” he added. (http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/, march 30 2014)

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So, How Does the Chinese Press Feel About the UNCLOS Arbitration?
by Julian Ku

For those of you wondering how seriously the Chinese media is taking the Philippines’ arbitration claim against China over the South China Sea (there must be at least two of you out there), here is an illustrative cartoon from a Chinese newspaper, “JingChu Times”, in Central China (although originally from another publication).

Although one doesn’t need to read Chinese to get the jist, here is my attempt to translate anyway.

The Foot is labeled: “Chinese Territory”

The Fish biting the Foot’s toe is labeled: “The Philippines”.  The Fish is holding a sign with the words: “Mine!”.

Yes, this Annex VII UNCLOS arbitration claim is really sending shock waves throughout China. -- http://opiniojuris.org/

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Klarex. Gihimong kataw-anan...

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In “History, Identity, and Security,” there is an intriguing discussion, all too short, on Jeffrey Wasserstrom’s classification of political protests in China into either subversive “political theater” or establishment-oriented “political ritual.” What would that make of the May 12, 2012 protest in Beijing against the Philippines at the height of the Scarborough Shoal standoff, when, according to Hayton, only five people showed up? The “mass nationalist anger” Philippine effrontery was supposed to have stirred up seems merely ritualistic.

Read more: http://opinion.inquirer.net/74462/mapping-the-humiliation-of-china#ixzz32JChxbNE

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DFA

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Nine Chinese fishermen, part of 11 detained on May 6, stand outside the Palawan Provincial Jail on Wednesday, May 14, as they await trial. The PNP on May 6 intercepted a Chinese fishing boat carrying about 350 marine turtles off Half Moon Shoal in the Spratlys, arrested its crew of 11 and took them to Palawan to face charges of violating wildlife protection laws. Two minors who were with the fishermen were released and were turned over to the DSWD. Reuters/Liezel Chiu

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Vietnam and Philippines agree to oppose China

Associated Press
By JIM GOMEZ
22 May 2014


Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, right, greets Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung during his courtesy call at the Malacanang Presidential Palace in Manila, Philippines Wednesday, May 21, 2014. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, POOL)

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Vietnam and the Philippines will jointly oppose "illegal" Chinese actions in the South China Sea, Vietnam's prime minster said Wednesday in a rare show of public solidarity between two Southeast Asian nations wrestling with Beijing's determination to assert its sovereignty claims in the disputed waters.

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"The two sides are determined to oppose China's violations and call on countries and the international community to continue strongly condemning China and demanding China to immediately end the above said violations," he said.

The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, has been more vocal in opposing China than Vietnam, which has been trying to quietly resolve its territorial dispute with Beijing using ties between the two country's Communist parties. But Hanoi was incensed by the deployment of the oil rig on May 1, leading to speculation it would shift its approach.

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Last year, the Philippines filed a case against the Chinese claims at a U.N. tribunal, to Beijing's displeasure.

Analysts have said Vietnam might now file its own appeal or join Manila's legal challenge against China.

The Philippines took the legal step after exhausting other peaceful means to resolve its territorial disputes with China, Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said.

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sadly, what the chinese are doing is unilaterally develop the contested areas first and discuss later, if at all.

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China and the Philippines are in a standoff over another South China Sea reef, the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese coast guard ships have thrice attempted to block Filipino vessels delivering new military personnel and food supplies to Philippine marines keeping watch on the disputed area on board a long-grounded ship.

Many have feared the long-seething territorial disputes in the resource-rich South China Sea could spark Asia's next major armed conflict. Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also have overlapping territorial claims in the strategic area, but the disputes between China, on the one hand, and Vietnam and the Philippines, on the other, have particularly flared in recent years.

China has steadfastly said that virtually the entire South China Sea has belonged to it since ancient times.

Chinese maritime surveillance ships took effective control of Scarborough Shoal off the northwestern Philippines after Filipino government vessels withdrew from the disputed fishing ground two years ago. Alarmed by China's move, the Philippines challenged the legality of Beijing's vast territorial claims in the South China Sea before an international arbitration tribunal last year.

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