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Marshallian externality, industrial upgrading, and industrial policies

A growth model with multiple industries is developed to study how industries evolve as capital accumulates endogenously when each industry exhibits Marshallian externality (increasing returns to scale) and to explain why industrial policies sometimes succeed but sometimes fail. The authors show that, in the long run, the laissez-faire market equilibrium is Pareto optimal when the time discount rate is sufficiently small or sufficiently large. When the time discount rate is moderate, there exist multiple dynamic market equilibria with diverse patterns of industrial development. To achieve Pareto efficiency, it would require the government to identify the industry target consistent with the comparative advantage and to coordinate in a timely manner, possibly for multiple times. However, industrial policies may make people worse off than in the market equilibrium if the government picks an industry that deviates from the comparative advantage of the economy.

Source: Marshallian externality, industrial upgrading, and industrial policies

Assessing the direct economic effects of reallocating irrigation water to alternative uses : concepts and an application

Irrigation water reallocations are playing an increasingly important role in both developed and developing countries. With growing urban and environmental water demands, rising costs for the development of new water supplies, and irrigated agriculture usually including the least economically valuable use of water, transfers of irrigation water to alternative uses are increasing. However, such reallocations are often controversial, and it is often questioned whether the benefits resulting from these transactions are large enough to outweigh the associated costs. This paper reviews the experience with irrigation water transfers, including the involvement of the World Bank. It discusses the problems of assessing the direct economic effects of reallocations, with a focus on the foregone direct benefits in irrigated agriculture. Because foregone direct benefits cannot easily be directly observed, they need to be estimated. However, assessments have shown widely differing estimates -- even when the same methodology was used. The paper reviews the methodologies and model specifications used for estimating foregone direct benefits; illustrates the impact of different model specifications on the magnitude of estimates of foregone direct benefits based on an application in an example case; and draws conclusions with regard to future efforts in assessing reallocation effects, including calculating adequate compensation for farmers. Because estimating the direct benefits of irrigation expansion is methodologically equivalent to estimating foregone direct benefits from reduced irrigation water supplies, the findings have implications for a broader range of water allocation decisions.

Source: Assessing the direct economic effects of reallocating irrigation water to alternative uses : concepts and an application

DR-CAFTA and the environment

The Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States aims to create a free trade zone for economic development. The Agreement is expected to intensify commerce and investment among the participating countries. This paper analyzes the changes in the production and trading patterns in 2-digit manufacturing sectors with the goal of understanding the short-term environmental implications of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. More specifically, the paper addresses the questions: Did pollution increase in the period after the Agreement negotiations? Did trade and production shift toward pollution intensive factors? The results suggest an increase in pollution emissions in the post-negotiations period. The increase in emissions is mainly attributable to scale effects. Composition effects are small and in some cases (including Nicaragua and Honduras) favoring cleaner industries and partially compensating the pollution gains from output and export growth.

Source: DR-CAFTA and the environment

Allocative inefficiencies resulting from subsidies to agricultural electricity use : an illustrative model

This paper provides an analytical discussion of several interconnected resource allocation problems from under-pricing of electricity used by farmers for groundwater extraction.  In these situations, groundwater extraction is inefficiently high even without electricity under-pricing. Moreover, part of the electric power supply intended for farmers is often diverted to other unauthorized uses (notably illicit consumption). The paper demonstrates that unless non-price electricity rationing imposes severe constraints on demand, the range of resource allocation problems includes insufficient incentives to provide high-level service by the power utility, insufficient incentives for farmers to install and operate efficient equipment, and losses due to political "rent seeking" activities to influence water allocations. It also shows that diversion of electricity to illicit uses can increase overall economic efficiency when this leads to less electricity use by farmers, thus somewhat ameliorating the problem of excessive groundwater extraction as well as the inefficiencies related to under-pricing of electricity. Systemic reforms for overcoming these problems may face severe political obstacles.

Source: Allocative inefficiencies resulting from subsidies to agricultural electricity use : an illustrative model

Geography and exporting behavior : evidence from India

This paper examines locational factors that increase the odds of a firm's entry into export markets and affect the intensity of its participation. It differentiates between two different sources of spillovers: clustering of general economic activity and that of export-oriented activity. It also focuses on the effect of the business environment and that of institutions at the spatial unit of districts in India. The study disentangles the within-industry effect from the within-firm effect. A simple logit specification is used to model the probability of entry. The analysis is based on a panel of manufacturing firms in India, which allows for the introduction of firm-specific controls and a battery of fixed effects. The findings suggest that exporter-specific clustering, general economic agglomeration, and institutional factors affect firms' export behavior.

Source: Geography and exporting behavior : evidence from India

Assessing economic and political impacts of Hydrological variability on treaties : case studies on the Zambezi and Mekong basins

International river basins will likely face higher hydrologic variability due to climate change. Increased floods and droughts would have economic and political consequences. Riparians of transboundary basins governed by water treaties could experience non-compliance and inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumed in a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope with these challenges through water storage, allocation, and use. This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, which measures gauge station runoff with wetness values derived from satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basin stream flow information to the entire river basin where natural flow information is limited. It demonstrates the approach with flow level data that provide estimates of monthly runoff in near real time in two international river basins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economic framework incorporating information on existing institutions to assess potential economic and political impacts and to inform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians. The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gauge station runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent in negotiating an international water agreement under increased hydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makers to devise more efficient institutional apparatus.

Source: Assessing economic and political impacts of Hydrological variability on treaties : case studies on the Zambezi and Mekong basins

Female wages in the apparel industry post-MFA : the cases of Cambodia and Sri Lanka

The end of the Multi-fiber Arrangement/Agreement on Textiles and Clothing in 2005 was a major policy change that affected the allocation of global apparel productions well as the lives of workers involved in this sector. Since the apparel industry is often the major female employer in developing countries, this policy change was expected to have major implications for women. This paper analyzes the wages and working conditions of women in the apparel sector in Cambodia and Sri Lanka following the phase-out the Multi-fibre Arrangement. In both countries, apparel is a major source of exports, and women constitute 70 to 80 percent of the workers employed in the apparel industry. The paper finds that after the removal of the Multi-fibre Arrangement, apparel prices declined as a result of the increased competition. The theoretical model suggests that a decrease in prices would lead to a decrease in apparel wage premiums relative to other industries in the short run and the widening of the male-female wage gap in the long run. The empirical findings support these theoretical predictions. Wage premiums in the apparel sector relative to other industries went down post-Multi-fibre Arrangement in Cambodia and Sri Lanka and the male-female wage gap increased. The paper finds mixed results in terms of working conditions in Cambodia and Sri Lanka.

Source: Female wages in the apparel industry post-MFA : the cases of Cambodia and Sri Lanka

Together we stand ? agglomeration in Indian manufacturing

This paper uses plant-level data to examine the impact of industrial and trade policy reforms on the geographic concentration of manufacturing industries in India from 1980 to 1999. First, the research shows that de-licensing and liberalization in foreign direct investment significantly reduced spatial concentration, but trade reforms had no significant effect on spatial concentration. Second, plants respond differently to policy reforms based on their size. Liberalization in foreign direct investment and de-licensing caused small plants to disperse, while trade liberalization had the opposite effect. However, for large plants trade liberalization led to lower spatial concentration.

Source: Together we stand ? agglomeration in Indian manufacturing

Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs

Water is increasingly becoming a limiting factor for sustainable economic growth and development in many countries. Its allocation has significant impacts on overall economic efficiency, particularly with growing physical scarcity in certain regions. Greater water supply variability further increases vulnerability in affected regions. Water also has become a strategic resource involving conflicts among those who may be affected differently by various policies. This paper analyzes various policy interventions aimed at improving water allocation decisions, using a novel approach that incorporates macro and micro level considerations in a unified analytical framework. The framework facilitates assessment of various linkages among policies and their impacts within individual sectors and economy-wide. Drawing on country based studies in Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, and Mexico, the analysis reveals difficult tradeoffs among various policy objectives, including priorities placed on different sectors, regional advantages, and general economic efficiency gains versus broader social impacts. The comparison of policy impacts demonstrates the usefulness of the framework in information that policy makers can use to rank the policy interventions according to the emphasis placed on different policy objectives. The paper also compares approaches used in other studies that apply computable general equilibrium models in various contexts of water, environment and agriculture.

Source: Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs

Aligning climate change mitigation and agricultural policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Greenhouse gas emissions are largely determined by how energy is created and used, and policies designed to encourage mitigation efforts reflect this reality. However, an unintended consequence of an energy-focused strategy is that the set of policy instruments needed to tap mitigation opportunities in agriculture is incomplete. In particular, market-linked incentives to achieve mitigation targets are disconnected from efforts to better manage carbon sequestered in agricultural land. This is especially important for many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where once-productive land has been degraded through poor agricultural practices. Often good agricultural policies and prudent natural resource management can compensate for missing links to mitigation incentives, but only partially. At the same time, two international project-based programs, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism, have been used to finance other types of agricultural mitigation efforts worldwide. Even so, a review of projects suggests that few countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia take full advantage of these financing paths. This paper discusses mitigation opportunities in the region, the reach of current mitigation incentives, and missed mitigation opportunities in agriculture. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternative policies designed to jointly promote mitigation and co-benefits for agriculture and the environment.

Source: Aligning climate change mitigation and agricultural policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

The future of the Nuclear industry reconsidered : risks, uncertainties, and continued potential

Skeptics point out, with some justification, that the nuclear industry's prospects were dimmed by escalating costs long before Fukushima. If history is any guide, one direct consequence of the calamity in Japan will be more stringent safety requirements and regulatory delays that will inevitably increase the costs of nuclear power and further undermine its economic viability. For nuclear power to play a major role in meeting the future global energy needs and mitigating the threat of climate change, the hazards of another Fukushima and the construction delays and costs escalation that have plagued the industry will have to be substantially reduced. One promising direction for nuclear development might be to downsize reactors from the gigawatt scale to less-complex smaller units that are more affordable. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are scalable nuclear power plant designs that promise to reduce investment risks through incremental capacity expansion; become more standardized and reduce costs through accelerated learning effects; and address concerns about catastrophic events, since they contain substantially smaller radioactive inventory. Given their lower capital requirements and small size, which makes them suitable for small electric grids, SMRs can more effectively address the energy needs of small developing countries.

Source: The future of the Nuclear industry reconsidered : risks, uncertainties, and continued potential

Rainfall variability, occupational choice, and welfare in rural Bangladesh

This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with non-flood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed in agriculture if they live in an area with high local rainfall variability. However, the occupational diversification strategy comes at a cost to households in terms of consumption welfare. The paper considers the effects of three policy actions, providing access to credit, safety net, and market. Access to market appears to be more effective in reducing the likelihood of costly within-household occupational diversification as an ex ante climate risk-reducing strategy as compared with access to credit and safety net.

Source: Rainfall variability, occupational choice, and welfare in rural Bangladesh

Poverty and distributional impact of gas price hike in Armenia

Armenia meets about 75 percent of its energy needs through imports, with natural gas imports from Russia accounting for about 80 percent of total energy imports and 60 percent of total primary energy supply. Because of high dependence on imported energy, Armenia is vulnerable to external energy price shocks, which are often beyond the control of its policymakers. A most recent case in point was the 2010 Russian gas tariff increase, which led to a nearly 40 percent increase in the retail gas price for residential consumers. Coming on the heels of the global economic recession that hit Armenia's economy hard, the price hike amplified the impact on households that rely primarily on gas for heating and cooking. Using aggregate energy consumption data and a nationally representative household survey immediately before the crisis, this paper provides an overview of household energy consumption patterns, highlights Armenia's energy vulnerability, and estimates the direct poverty and distributional impacts of the increase in the cost of imported gas. The analysis shows that the gas price hike resulted in a significant increase in energy expenditures, with disproportionately higher impact on the poor and vulnerable households. The paper concludes with a discussion on the effectiveness of the mitigation measures employed by the Government of Armenia.

Source: Poverty and distributional impact of gas price hike in Armenia

What explains big gender disparities in India ? local industrial structures and female entrepreneurship

Despite rapid economic growth, gender disparities in women's economic participation have remained deep and persistent in India. What explains these huge gender disparities? Is it poor infrastructure, limited education, and gender composition of the labor force and industries? Or is it deficiencies in social and business networks and a low share of incumbent female entrepreneurs?This paper analyzes the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. Good infrastructure and education predict higher female entry shares. There are strong agglomeration economies in both manufacturing and services, where higher female ownership among incumbent businesses within a district-industry predicts a greater share of subsequent entrepreneurs will be female. Moreover, higher female ownership of local businesses in related industries (similar labor needs, input-output markets) predicts greater relative female entry rates. Gender networks thus clearly matter for women's economic participation. However, there is a need to develop a better understanding of how gender networks influence aggregate efficiency. There is no doubt that gender empowerment can be the escalator to realizing human potential and for creating a robust platform for growth and job creation.

Source: What explains big gender disparities in India ? local industrial structures and female entrepreneurship

Promoting the rural farm and nonfarm businesses : evidence from the Yemen rural investment climate

This study examines the major constraints of rural business entry and performance in Yemen. The Yemen rural investment climate survey made it possible to analyze rural investment climate constraints for rural businesses. The survey was used to investigate both farm and nonfarm rural enterprises. The rural investment climate was assessed using a combination of subjective impressions related by rural entrepreneurs, and a more objective, empirical set of analyses that employed indicators to rank the constraints to "doing business" in the areas surveyed. These empirical analyses included application of the entry model, the performance model, the closure model, and the migration model. The migration model was introduced to identify how the rural investment climate variables at the community level increase migration and economic activities. Based on the assessment of the rural investment climate, this paper identifies and explains four critical areas in which the rural investment climate in Yemen can be improved: market demand, access to markets, access to finance, and the provision of business services. Because farm and nonfarm businesses often experience common or similar constraints, the climate in which they operate can often be improved with the same measures and policies. Addressing the constraints that affect rural women entrepreneurs in particular, who play a vital role in rural nonfarm enterprises, warrants clear priority as a means to generate income and employment. Security and labor issues are identified as the key such constraints that disproportionately affect women.

Source: Promoting the rural farm and nonfarm businesses : evidence from the Yemen rural investment climate

Can participation be induced ? some evidence from developing countries

The World Bank has allocated close to $80 billion towards participatory development projects over the last decade. A comprehensive review of the evidence on the efficacy of the approach conducted by the authors for the forthcoming Policy Research Report, Localizing Development: Does Participation Work?, finds that while participatory projects have been reasonably effective in improving access to basic services, there is far less evidence of their effectiveness in improving household income or in building sustainable participatory institutions at the local level. A key issue is that the institutional culture in development agencies such as the World Bank lacks the flexibility and long-term commitment necessary for effective externally induced participatory development. Induced participation -- driven by large-scale bureaucratically managed processes, is quite different from more organic types of participation endogenously organized by civic groups. It requires a very different approach to development, one that pays close attention to contextual variation and to uncertain trajectories of change. In order to be effective, induced participatory projects need a strong focus on learning-by-doing; on monitoring and evaluation and a willingness to learn from failure. A review of the World Bank's practices in monitoring and evaluation, and of its incentives to learn from failure, reveals that without significant changes, including changes in the incentive structures facing management, the Bank cannot be effective in inducing participation.

Source: Can participation be induced ? some evidence from developing countries

Did Latvia's public works program mitigate the impact of the 2008-2010 crisis ?

To mitigate the impact of the 2008-2010 global financial crisis on vulnerable households, the Government of Latvia established Workplaces with Stipends, an emergency public works program that targeted registered unemployed people who were not receiving unemployment benefits. This paper evaluates the targeting performance and welfare impacts of the program. It exploits the over-subscription of Workplaces with Stipends to define a control group. The paper finds that the program was successful at targeting poor and vulnerable people, and that leakage to non-poor households was small. Using propensity score matching, the paper finds that the program's stipend mitigated the impact of job loss and, in the short term, raised participating household incomes by 37 percent relative to similar households not benefiting from the program. The paper also finds that the foregone income for this program was less than foregone incomes estimated in other countries. This suggests a dearth of income-generating opportunities in Latvia; thus the program provided temporary employment opportunities and helped the unemployed mitigate the impact of the crisis. However, relative to the depth of the crisis in Latvia, the Workplaces with Stipends program scale was small, which meant long waiting periods for program applicants.

Source: Did Latvia's public works program mitigate the impact of the 2008-2010 crisis ?

Accounting for gender production from a growth accounting framework in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper draws on an expanded growth accounting framework to estimate the relative contribution of women to growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Empirical results show a consistently positive contribution of women to growth in gross domestic product in the region, both during economic downturns and growth spurts. This is despite the absence of any valuation of home-produced goods and informal sector production, which accounts for the bulk of womens production, in national product and income accounts. Women's positive contribution is largely attributed to their increased rates of labor force participation in wage employment and the reduction in the gender gap in education in recent years.

Source: Accounting for gender production from a growth accounting framework in Sub-Saharan Africa

Learning from China's rise to escape the middle-income trap : a new structural economics approach to Latin America

This paper discusses the causes of the middle-income trap in Latin America and the Caribbean, identifies the challenges and opportunities for Latin America that come from China's rise, and draws lessons from New Structural Economics and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to help Latin America escape the middle-income trap. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are caught in a middle-income trap due to their inability to structurally upgrade from low value-added to high value-added products. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should intervene in industries in which they have a comparative advantage, calibrating supporting policies in close collaboration with the private sector through public-private sector alliances. Through continuous structural upgrading in sectors intensive in factors such as natural resources, scientific knowledge, and unskilled labor, the region could achieve dynamic growth. This would require investments in education, research and development, and physical infrastructure. Therefore, industrial upgrading and diversification would be essential to avoid further de-industrialization arising from the competitive pressures of the rise of China, broaden the base for economic growth, and create the basis for further sustained reduction in unemployment, poverty and income inequality. Failure to do so would lead to a loss of competitiveness and risks of further de-industrialization.

Source: Learning from China's rise to escape the middle-income trap : a new structural economics approach to Latin America

Household enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa : why they matter for growth, jobs, and livelihoods

Despite 40 percent of households relying on household enterprises (non-farm enterprises operated by a single individual or with the help of family members) as an income source, household enterprises are usually ignored in low-income Sub-Saharan-African development strategies. Yet analysis of eight countries shows that although the fast growing economies generated new private non-farm wage jobs at high rates, household enterprises generated most new jobs outside agriculture. Owing to the small size of the non-farm wage job sector, this trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. This analysis of enterprises and their owners shows that although it is a heterogeneous sector within countries, there are many similarities across countries, indicating that cross-country learning is possible. For labor force participants who want to use their skills and energy to create a non-farm income source for themselves and their families, household enterprises offer a good opportunity even if they remain small. The paper finds that given household human capital and location, household enterprise earnings have the same marginal effect on consumption as private wage and salary employment. The authors argue that household enterprises should be seen as part of an integrated job and development strategy.

Source: Household enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa : why they matter for growth, jobs, and livelihoods

The persistence of (subnational) fortune : geography, agglomeration, and institutions in the new world

Using subnational historical data, this paper establishes the within country persistence of economic activity in the New World over the last half millennium. The paper constructs a data set incorporating measures of pre-colonial population density, new measures of present regional per capita income and population, and a comprehensive set of locational fundamentals. These fundamentals are shown to have explanatory power: native populations throughout the hemisphere were found in more livable and productive places. It is then shown that high pre-colonial density areas tend to be dense today: population agglomerations persist. The data and historical evidence suggest this is due partly to locational fundamentals, but also to classic agglomeration effects: colonialists established settlements near existing native populations for reasons of labor, trade, knowledge and defense. Further, high density (historically prosperous) areas also tend to have higher incomes today, and largely due to agglomeration effects: fortune persists for the United States and most of Latin America. Finally extractive institutions,  in this case, slavery, reduce persistence even if they do not overwhelm other forces in its favor.

Source: The persistence of (subnational) fortune : geography, agglomeration, and institutions in the new world

Effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving women's employability and quality of work : a critical review

This paper examines the effectiveness of a variety of policy interventions that have been tried in developing and transition economies with the goal of improving women's employability and quality of work. The programs include active labor market programs, education and training programs, programs that facilitate work (such as childcare subsidies, parental leave programs and land titling programs), microfinance programs, entrepreneurship and leadership programs, and conditional cash transfer programs. Some of these policy interventions were undertaken to increase employment, some to increase female employment, and some for other reasons. All of these programs have been subjected to impact evaluations of different kinds and some also to rigorous cost-benefit analyses. Many were found to be effective in increasing women's quantity of work as measured by increased rates of labor market participation and number of hours worked. In some cases, the programs also increased women's quality of work, for example, by increasing the capacity for women to work in the formal rather than the informal sector where wages are higher and where women are more likely to have access to health, retirement, and other benefits.

Source: Effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving women's employability and quality of work : a critical review

Distortions to agriculture and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy induced distortions to relative agricultural prices to address this question econometrically. First, the authors test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. They find that on impact there is no significant response of relative agricultural price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita growth. Then, the authors test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative agricultural price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. The fixed effects estimates yield that, during the 1960-2005 period, a ten percentage points increase in distortions to relative agricultural prices decreased the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.

Source: Distortions to agriculture and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Poverty in Mozambique : new evidence from recent household surveys

This paper has three primary objectives: (i) to investigate potential problems regarding Mozambique's most recent nationally representative household survey on poverty dynamics; (ii) to assess the robustness and reliability of official poverty statistics; and (iii) to provide alternative estimates of poverty and welfare indicators in light of the methodological and analytical issues raised in areas (i) and (ii). It is determined that at least two significant weaknesses affect the official poverty-rate estimates: measurement errors in consumption data and flaws in the methodology used to calculate poverty lines (the cost-of-basic-needs approach based on provincial food bundles with entropy correction). A number of observations appear to be affected by substantial measurement errors, which severely distort the official poverty statistics. The paper provides methods to correct the consumption distribution by recalculating poverty lines based on a single national food basket -- as opposed to the current estimates, which are based on province-specific food baskets. The revised poverty statistics differ considerably from the official estimates of poverty across provinces and are far more consistent with other poverty indicators. In addition, poverty appears to be highly concentrated in certain areas, with dramatically higher rates found in Central and Northern Mozambique, as well as in rural areas overall, compared with relatively low rates in Southern Mozambique and in the country's urban centers. These findings substantially contradict the government's official poverty figures, which appear to systematically overestimate poverty rates in Mozambique's Southern provinces and urban areas while simultaneously underestimating the prevalence of poverty in the country's Central and Northern regions and in rural areas nationwide.

Source: Poverty in Mozambique : new evidence from recent household surveys

Is green growth good for the poor ?

The developing world is experiencing substantial environmental change, and climate change is likely to accelerate these processes in the coming decades. Due to their initial poverty, and their relatively high dependence on environmental capital for their livelihoods, the poor are likely to suffer most due to their low resources for mitigation and investment in adaptation. Economic growth is essential for any large-scale poverty reduction. Green growth, a growth process that is sensitive to environmental and climate change concerns, is often seen to be particularly helpful in this respect, leading to a win-win in growth and poverty reduction terms, with additional gains for the cause of greening the planet and avoiding further disastrous environmental change. This paper argues that such a view ignores important trade-offs in the nature of "green growth" strategies, stemming from a poor understanding of the sector and spatial processes behind effective poverty reduction. High labor intensity, declining shares of agriculture in gross domestic product and employment, migration, and urbanization are essential features of poverty-reducing growth. The paper contrasts some common and stylized green-sensitive growth ideas related to agriculture, trade, technology, infrastructure, and urban development with the requirements of poverty-sensitive growth. It finds that they may well cause a slow-down in the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty. The main lesson therefore is that trade-offs are bound to exist; they increase the social costs of green growth and should be explicitly addressed. If not, green growth may not be good for the poor and the poor should not be asked to pay the price for sustaining growth while greening the planet.

Source: Is green growth good for the poor ?

Natural capital, ecological scarcity and rural poverty

Much of the rural poor -- who are growing in number -- are concentrated in ecologically fragile and remote areas. The key ecological scarcity problem facing such poor households is a vicious cycle of declining livelihoods, increased ecological degradation and loss of resource commons, and declining ecosystem services on which the poor depend. In addition, developing economies with high concentrations of their populations on fragile lands and in remote areas not only display high rates of rural poverty, but also are some of the poorest countries in the world today. Policies to eradicate poverty therefore need to be targeted at the poor where they live, especially the rural poor clustered in fragile environments and remote areas. The specific elements of such a strategy include involving the poor in payment for ecosystem services schemes and other measures that enhance the environments on which the poor depend; targeting investments directly to improving the livelihoods of the rural poor, thus reducing their dependence on exploiting environmental resources; tackling the lack of access of the rural poor in less favored areas to well-functioning and affordable markets for credit, insurance, and land; and reducing the high transportation and transaction costs that prohibit the poorest households in remote areas from engaging in off-farm employment and limit smallholder participation in national and global markets.

Source: Natural capital, ecological scarcity and rural poverty

Declining inequality in Latin America in the 2000s : the cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico

Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources.  In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors.  Their relative importance depends on the country.

Source: Declining inequality in Latin America in the 2000s : the cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico

Self-employment in the developing world

This paper analyzes heterogeneity among the self-employed in 74 developing countries, representing two-thirds of the population of the developing world. After profiling how worker characteristics vary by employment status, it classifies self-employed workers outside agriculture as "successful" or "unsuccessful" entrepreneurs, based on two measures of success: whether the worker is an employer, and whether the worker resides in a non-poor household. Four main findings emerge. First, jobs exhibit a clear pecking order, with household welfare and worker education highest for employers, followed by wage and salaried employees, non-agricultural own-account workers, non-agricultural unpaid family workers, and finally agricultural workers. Second, a substantial minority of own-account workers reside in non-poor households, suggesting that their profits are often a secondary source of household income. Third, as per capita income increases, the structure of employment shifts rapidly, first out of agriculture into unsuccessful non-agricultural self-employment, and then mainly into non-agricultural wage employment. Finally, roughly one-third of the unsuccessful entrepreneurs share similar characteristics with their successful counterparts, suggesting they have the potential to be successful but face constraints to growth. The authors conclude that although interventions such as access to credit can benefit a substantial portion of the self-employed, effectively targeting the minority of self-employed with higher growth potential is important, particularly in low-income contexts. The results also highlight the potential benefits of policies that facilitate shifts in the nature of work, first from agricultural labor into non-agricultural self-employment, and then into wage and salaried jobs.

Source: Self-employment in the developing world

The patterns and determinants of household welfare growth in Jordan : 2002-2010

Jordan's economic growth in the past decade has translated into a significant rise in household consumption and a decline in poverty and inequality indicators. Yet, the sentiment of the overall population seems to point to worsening disparities. Using official household expenditure surveys for 2002, 2008, and 2010, this paper analyzes the patterns and determinants of household welfare growth and examines the extent to which economic growth has been inclusive of the more vulnerable groups. Using counterfactual decompositions, the paper dwells first on the dynamics observed behind the drop in poverty and inequality. It then carries out regression analysis using re-centered influence functions to examine the economic determinants of household welfare growth throughout the decade. The paper finds that welfare growth as opposed to welfare distribution was the main driver behind poverty reduction, and that the drop in inequality was primarily driven by a regional catching-up effect. In addition, the analysis identifies rent, access to human capital services, and more importantly employment in the services sector and the public sector as the major determinants of welfare growth in Jordan. Public hiring in particular was used extensively as a tool for poverty alleviation, especially for residents outside the capital.

Source: The patterns and determinants of household welfare growth in Jordan : 2002-2010

Benchmarking global poverty reduction

Against what standards should we judge the developing world's overall performance against poverty going forward? The paper proposes two measures, each with both "optimistic" and "ambitious" targets for 2022, 10 years from the time of writing. The first measure is absolute consumption poverty, as judged by what "poverty" means in the poorest countries. The second is a new measure of global poverty combining absolute poverty with country-specific social inclusion needs, consistently with national poverty lines. The optimistic benchmark would entail an absolute poverty rate of 9 percent in 2022, and a combined poverty rate of 40 percent, including the allowance for social inclusion. The more ambitious targets would bring the absolute rate down to 3 percent and the combined rate to 33 percent. The optimistic target would maintain the (impressive) progress against poverty of the last 20 years, without global crises to stall that progress. The ambitious target would require about a 1 percentage point higher growth rate for the gross domestic product of the developing world, as long as this did not come with a reduction in the household sector's share or any further increase in overall inequality beyond its level in 2008. Alternatively, the 3 percent target could be reached at currently expected growth rates but at the lower level of inequality found in 1999.

Source: Benchmarking global poverty reduction

The role of sectoral growth patterns in labor market development

This paper investigates the relationship between sectoral growth patterns and employment outcomes. A broad cross-country analysis reveals that in middle-income countries, employment responds more to growth in less productive and more labor-intensive sectors. Employment in middle-income countries is susceptible to a resource curse, and grows rapidly in response to manufacturing and export manufacturing growth. Within Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico, the effects of different sectoral growth patterns are context dependent, but differences in sectoral growth effects on employment and wages are substantially reduced in states or provinces with higher measured labor mobility. Consistent with this, aggregate employment and wage effects of growth by sector are close to uniform when examined over longer time horizons, after labor has an opportunity to adjust across sectors. The results reinforce the importance of growth in more labor-intensive sectors, and suggest that job mobility may be an important mechanism to diffuse the benefits of capital-intensive growth.

Source: The role of sectoral growth patterns in labor market development

Income risk, income mobility and welfare

This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an Autoregressive (AR(1)) component representing persistent changes in income. The analysis uses a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process.  The empirical application of the framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.

Source: Income risk, income mobility and welfare

Global income inequality by the numbers : in history and now --an overview--

The paper presents an overview of calculations of global inequality, recently and over the long-run as well as main controversies and political and philosophical implications of the findings. It focuses in particular on the winners and losers of the most recent episode of globalization, from 1988 to 2008. It suggests that the period might have witnessed the first decline in global inequality between world citizens since the Industrial Revolution. The decline however can be sustained only if countries' mean incomes continue to converge (as they have been doing during the past ten years) and if internal (within-country) inequalities, which are already high, are kept in check. Mean-income convergence would also reduce the huge "citizenship premium" that is enjoyed today by the citizens of rich countries.

Source: Global income inequality by the numbers : in history and now --an overview--

The Central African Republic's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Between 2000 and 2005, infrastructure contributed less than 1 percentage point to the Central African Republic's annual per capita GDP growth, despite substantial spending in the road sector. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 3.5 percentage points. The CAR has made significant progress in the transport, water, power, and information and communications technology (ICT) sectors. But the high cost of fuel, which raises transportation and energy costs, has been a vexing issue across all infrastructure sectors. The CAR's most pressing infrastructural challenge lies in the transport sector, which relies heavily on neighboring countries and could benefit from improved road conditions and enhanced performance at the port of Douala in Cameroon. In the power sector, the country suffers from a deteriorating infrastructure stock that it can no longer afford to maintain, and an inefficient and unreliable power supply. Additional challenges include a need for improved infrastructure in the water and sanitation and ICT sectors. Addressing the CAR's infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditure of $346 million per year over the next decade. The nation already spends around $134 million per year on infrastructure, with $37 million a year lost to inefficiencies of various kinds. If those inefficiencies were fully eliminated, the country's annual infrastructure funding gap would be $183 million per year. Improvements in funding, coupled with the prospect of an economic rebound and prudent policies, could lift the country from its fragile state back to and beyond the prosperity standards it once enjoyed.

Source: The Central African Republic's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Sierra Leone's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Infrastructure development in Sierra Leone contributed about half a percentage point to the economy's per capita growth rate in 2003-07. But if Sierra Leone could upgrade its infrastructure to the level of the best performer in Africa, per capita growth rates could be boosted by more than three percentage points. After nine years of peace, economic activity is flourishing at every level in Sierra Leone. But the 11-year civil war destroyed the country's infrastructure, and rebuilding the road network and ports while improving the electrical, water, and telecommunications infrastructure is proving difficult. Looking ahead, expanding electrification is a top priority because current access levels, at only 1-5 percent of the urban population and 0 percent in rural areas, are impeding other development. The water and sanitation sector faces similar challenges, as only 1 percent of the rural population has access to piped water. Sierra Leone has been spending about $134 million annually on infrastructure in recent years. About $66 million is lost each year to inefficiencies. Comparing spending needs against existing spending and potential efficiency gains leaves an annual funding gap of $59 to $278 million per year. If savings from greater efficiency could be fully captured, Sierra Leone would not meet its posited infrastructure targets for another 30 years. Sierra Leone needs to make difficult decisions about the prioritization of infrastructure investments and must think strategically about bundling and sequencing investments for maximum returns.

Source: Sierra Leone's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Low-level versus high-level equilibrium in public utility service



Source: Low-level versus high-level equilibrium in public utility service

Municipal solid waste management in small towns : an economic analysis conducted in Yunnan, China

Municipal solid waste management continues to be a major challenge for local governments in both urban and rural areas across the world, and one of the key issues is their financial constraints. Recently an economic analysis was conducted in Eryuan, a poor county located in Yunnan Province of China, where willingness to pay for an improved solid waste collection and treatment service was estimated and compared with the project cost. This study finds that the mean willingness to pay is about 1 percent of household income and the total willingness to pay can basically cover the total cost of the project. The analysis also shows that the poorest households in Eryuan are not only willing to pay more than the rich households in terms of income percentage in general, but also are willing to pay no less than the rich in absolute terms where no solid waste services are available; the poorest households have stronger demand for public solid waste management services while the rich have the capability to take private measures when public services are not available.

Source: Municipal solid waste management in small towns : an economic analysis conducted in Yunnan, China

Valuing water quality improvement in China : a case study of lake Puzhehei in Yunnan province

While polluted surface water is encountered across most of China, few economic valuation studies have been conducted on water quality changes. Limited information about the economic values associated with those potential water quality improvements or deteriorations is a disadvantage for making proper choices in water pollution control and clean-up activities. This paper reports an economic valuation study conducted in Yunnan, China, which aims to estimate the total value of a real investment project to improve the water quality of Lake Puzhehei by one grade level. Located in Qiubei County, which is far from large cities, the lake has been experiencing fast water quality deterioration in the past years. A conservative estimation strategy shows that on average a household located in Qiubei County is willing to pay about 30 yuan per month continuously for 5 years for water quality improvement, equivalent roughly to 3 percent of household income. The elasticity of willingness-to-pay with respect to income is estimated to be 0.21. The economic rate of return of the proposed project is estimated to be 18 percent, indicating a strong demand and high efficiency of investment in water quality improvement in China. This study also demonstrates that previous knowledge about water quality changes and the project may have a significant positive impact on people's valuation, and that the interviewer effect on valuation can be negative.

Source: Valuing water quality improvement in China : a case study of lake Puzhehei in Yunnan province

Angola's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Infrastructure made a net contribution of around 1 percentage point to Angola's improved per capita growth performance in recent years, despite unreliable power supplies and poor roads, which each holding back growth by 0.2 percentage points. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost Angola's annual growth by about 2.9 percentage points. As a resource-rich, postconflict country, Angola has shown an exceptionally strong commitment to financing the reconstruction and expansion of its infrastructure. It has recently expanded its generation capacity, embarked on an ambitious multibillion-dollar road rehabilitation program, begun to make investments aimed at easing congestion at the Port of Luanda, and embarked upon an ambitious rehabilitation program for urban water systems. Numerous challenges remain, however. Angola needs to upgrade its electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, expand its urban water-supply system, improve efficiency at the Port of Luanda, and make policy and regulatory adjustments across the board. Angola presently spends around $4.3 billion per year on infrastructure, with $1.3 billion lost to inefficiencies. After taking sectoral allocations and inefficiencies into account, a modest funding gap of $115 million per year remains, which could be largely eliminated by focusing on lower-cost water and sanitation options. Angola's infrastructure needs are manageable relative to its fast-growing economy, as long as the country can address inefficiencies.

Source: Angola's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Burkina Faso's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Infrastructure contributed 1.3 percentage points to Burkina Faso's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the past decade, much of it due to improvements in information and communication technology (ICT). Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost annual growth by more than 3 percentage points per capita. Burkina Faso has made significant progress developing its infrastructure in recent years, especially in the ICT sector. The country has also moved forward in the areas of road maintenance and water and sanitation, but still faces challenges in these sectors, as well as in the electricity sector. As of 2007, Burkina Faso faced an annual infrastructure funding gap of $165 million per year, or 4 percent of GDP. That gap could be cut in half by the adoption of more appropriate technologies to meet infrastructure targets in the transport and the water and sanitation sectors. Even if Burkina Faso were unable to increase infrastructure spending or otherwise close the infrastructure funding gap, simply by moving from a 10- to 18-year horizon the country could address its efficiency gap and meet the posited infrastructure targets.

Source: Burkina Faso's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Cameroon's infrastructure : a continental perspective

The poor state of Cameroon's infrastructure is a key bottleneck to the nation's economic growth. From 2000 to 2005, improvements in information and communications technology (ICT) boosted Cameroon's growth performance by 1.26 percentage points per capita, while deficient power infrastructure held growth back by 0.28 points per capita. If Cameroon could improve its infrastructure to the level of Africa's middle-income countries, it could raise its per capita economic growth rate by about 3.3 percentage points. Cameroon has made significant progress in many aspects of infrastructure, implementing institutional reforms across a broad range of sectors with a view to attracting private-sector participation and finance, which has generally led to performance improvements. But the country still faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, including poor road quality, expensive and unreliable electricity, and a stagnating and uncompetitive ICT sector. Cameroon currently spends around $930 million per year on infrastructure, with $586 million lost to inefficiencies. Removing those inefficiencies would leave an infrastructure funding gap of $350 million per year. Given Cameroon's relatively strong economy and natural-resource base, as well as its success in attracting private financing, the country should be able to close that gap and meet its infrastructure goals within 13 years.

Source: Cameroon's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Zimbabwe's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Despite general economic decline and power-supply deficiencies, infrastructure made a modest net contribution of just less than half a percentage point to Zimbabwe's improved per capita growth performance in recent years. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 2.4 percentage points. Zimbabwe made significant progress in infrastructure in its early period as an independent state, building a national electricity network with regional interconnections, an extensive and internationally connected road network, and a water and sewer system. But the country has been unable to maintain its existing infrastructure since it became immersed in economic and political turmoil in the late 1990s. Zimbabwe now faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, the most pressing of which lie in the power and water sectors, where deteriorating conditions pose risks to the economy and public health. Zimbabwe currently spends about $0.8 billion per year on infrastructure, though $0.7 billion of this is lost to inefficiencies of various kinds. Even if these inefficiencies were fully captured, Zimbabwe would still face an infrastructure funding gap of $0.6 billion per year. That staggering figure can be reduced, however, to $0.4 billion if the country adopts a more modest spending scenario, or even to $0.1 billion under a minimalist, maintenance-only scenario. To close the gap, Zimbabwe needs to raise additional public, private-sector, and international funding, which, when coupled with the prospect of economic rebound and prudent policies, would allow the country to regain its historic infrastructure advantages.

Source: Zimbabwe's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Mozambique's infrastructure : a continental perspective

In the last 10 years, Mozambique's economy has grown steadily at an impressive rate of 7.7 percent per year, driven by the service sector, light industry, and agriculture. This pace is expected to continue or even increase with the massive influx of already-planned investment on the order of $15-20 billion. Mozambique's infrastructure is well developed in some sectors, including its east-west transport infrastructure, power grid, and water and sanitation networks. But the nation still faces critical challenges in these and other areas, including developing north-south transport connections, properly managing the water system, and expanding hydroelectric generation to meet potential. Mozambique spent about $664 million per year on infrastructure during the late 2000s, with as much as $204 million lost annually to inefficiencies. Comparing spending needs with existing spending and potential efficiency gains leaves an annual funding gap of $822 million per year. Mozambique could reduce inefficiency losses by positioning itself as a key power exporter. The country could reach infrastructure targets in 20 years through a combination of increased finance, improved efficiency, and cost-reducing innovations.

Source: Mozambique's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Botswana's infrastructure : a continental perspective



Source: Botswana's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Allocative inefficiencies resulting from subsidies to agricultural electricity use : an illustrative model

This paper provides an analytical discussion of several interconnected resource allocation problems from under-pricing of electricity used by farmers for groundwater extraction.  In these situations, groundwater extraction is inefficiently high even without electricity under-pricing. Moreover, part of the electric power supply intended for farmers is often diverted to other unauthorized uses (notably illicit consumption). The paper demonstrates that unless non-price electricity rationing imposes severe constraints on demand, the range of resource allocation problems includes insufficient incentives to provide high-level service by the power utility, insufficient incentives for farmers to install and operate efficient equipment, and losses due to political "rent seeking" activities to influence water allocations. It also shows that diversion of electricity to illicit uses can increase overall economic efficiency when this leads to less electricity use by farmers, thus somewhat ameliorating the problem of excessive groundwater extraction as well as the inefficiencies related to under-pricing of electricity. Systemic reforms for overcoming these problems may face severe political obstacles.

Source: Allocative inefficiencies resulting from subsidies to agricultural electricity use : an illustrative model

Tanzania's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Infrastructure contributed 1.3 percentage points to Tanzania's annual per capital GDP growth during the 2000s. If the country's infrastructure endowment were improved to the level of the African leader, Mauritius, annual per capita growth rates could increase by 3.4 percent. Tanzania has made great progress in reforming its trunk roads, improving the quality of the road network. The country has also seen significant gains in ICT networks, and has one of the most competitive domestic air transport sectors in Africa. The power sector poses Tanzania's most serious infrastructure challenge. Despite significant improvements in pricing and operational performance in recent years, inefficiency still absorbs about 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to heavy reliance on hydro-power the sector remains vulnerable to climate variability. The port of Dar es Salaam also suffers from performance problems as rapid traffic growth has increasingly exposed deficiencies in storage and access to the port. Poor access to safe water is another challenge, exacerbated by poor budget execution in the sector. Tanzania would need to invest $2.4 billion annually for 10 years to meet its infrastructure targets. Spending at that level would absorb just over 20 percent of the country's GDP. Existing spending stands at $1.2 billion a year. Tanzania loses $0.5 billion each year to inefficiencies such as underpricing, undercollection of revenue, overstaffing, and lack of budget prioritization. But even if inefficiencies could be fully captured, an annual funding gap of $0.7 billion would remain. That gap could be shrunk to $0.4 billion if lower-cost technologies were adopted and if regional power trade could be further developed.

Source: Tanzania's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Uganda's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Uganda has made substantial progress on its infrastructure agenda in recent years. The early and successful ICT reform detonated a huge expansion in mobile coverage and penetration resulting in a highly competitive market. Power sector restructuring has paved the way for a rapid doubling of power generation capacity. Uganda is doing well on the water and sanitation MDGs, and has made effective use of performance contracting to improve utility performance. However, a number of important challenges remain. Despite reforms, the power sector continues to hemorrhage resources due to under-pricing and high distribution losses, while electrification rates are still very low. Providing adequate resources for road maintenance remains a challenge, and further investment is needed to increase rural connectivity and improve road safety. Addressing Uganda's infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditure of around $1.4 billion per year over the next decade, strongly skewed towards capital expenditure. Uganda already spends approximately $1 billion per year on infrastructure, equivalent to about 11 percent of GDP. A further $0.3 billion a year is lost to inefficiencies, the bulk of which are associated with underpricing and distribution losses in the power sector. Uganda's annual infrastructure funding gap is about $0.4 billion per year, most of which is associated with irrigation as well as water and sanitation infrastructure.

Source: Uganda's infrastructure : a continental perspective

Assessing economic and political impacts of Hydrological variability on treaties : case studies on the Zambezi and Mekong basins

International river basins will likely face higher hydrologic variability due to climate change. Increased floods and droughts would have economic and political consequences. Riparians of transboundary basins governed by water treaties could experience non-compliance and inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumed in a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope with these challenges through water storage, allocation, and use. This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, which measures gauge station runoff with wetness values derived from satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basin stream flow information to the entire river basin where natural flow information is limited. It demonstrates the approach with flow level data that provide estimates of monthly runoff in near real time in two international river basins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economic framework incorporating information on existing institutions to assess potential economic and political impacts and to inform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians. The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gauge station runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent in negotiating an international water agreement under increased hydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makers to devise more efficient institutional apparatus.

Source: Assessing economic and political impacts of Hydrological variability on treaties : case studies on the Zambezi and Mekong basins

Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs

Water is increasingly becoming a limiting factor for sustainable economic growth and development in many countries. Its allocation has significant impacts on overall economic efficiency, particularly with growing physical scarcity in certain regions. Greater water supply variability further increases vulnerability in affected regions. Water also has become a strategic resource involving conflicts among those who may be affected differently by various policies. This paper analyzes various policy interventions aimed at improving water allocation decisions, using a novel approach that incorporates macro and micro level considerations in a unified analytical framework. The framework facilitates assessment of various linkages among policies and their impacts within individual sectors and economy-wide. Drawing on country based studies in Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, and Mexico, the analysis reveals difficult tradeoffs among various policy objectives, including priorities placed on different sectors, regional advantages, and general economic efficiency gains versus broader social impacts. The comparison of policy impacts demonstrates the usefulness of the framework in information that policy makers can use to rank the policy interventions according to the emphasis placed on different policy objectives. The paper also compares approaches used in other studies that apply computable general equilibrium models in various contexts of water, environment and agriculture.

Source: Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs

Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change

While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the "best" solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision-makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision-making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision-makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project's lifetime, cost, and vulnerability.

Source: Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change

Handwashing behavior change at scale : evidence from a randomized evaluation in Vietnam

Handwashing with soap, which has been shown to reduce diarrhea in young children by as much as 48 percent, is frequently mentioned as one of the most effective and inexpensive ways to save children's lives. Yet rates of handwashing remain very low throughout the world. Handwashing with soap campaigns are de rigueur in developing countries, but little is known about their effectiveness. Few have been rigorously evaluated, and none on a large-scale. This paper evaluates a large-scale handwashing campaign in three provinces of Vietnam in 2010. Exposure to the campaign resulted in a slight increase in the availability of handwashing materials in the household, and caregivers in the treatment group were more likely to report washing hands at some of the times emphasized by the campaign. However, observed handwashing with soap at these times is low, and there isn't any difference between the treatment and control groups. As a result, no impact on health or productivity is found. These results suggest that even under seemingly optimal conditions, where knowledge and access to soap and water are not main constraints, behavior change campaigns that take place on a large scale face tradeoffs in terms of intensity and effectiveness.

Source: Handwashing behavior change at scale : evidence from a randomized evaluation in Vietnam

Promoting handwashing behavior in Peru : the effect of large-scale mass-media and community level interventions

This paper analyzes a randomized experiment that uses novel strategies to promote handwashing with soap at critical times in Peru. It evaluates a large-scale intervention that includes a mass media provincial campaign and a district-level community component. The analysis finds that the mass media intervention alone had no significant effect on exposure to the handwashing promotion campaign messages, and therefore no effect on handwashing knowledge or handwashing behavior. In contrast, the community-level intervention, a more comprehensive intervention that included several community and school activities in addition to the communications campaign, was successful in reaching the target audience with handwashing promotion messages and in improving the knowledge of the treated population on appropriate handwashing behavior. Those improvements translated into higher self-reported and observed handwashing with soap at critical junctures. However, no significant improvements in the health of children under the age of five were observed. The results are consistent with earlier literature, which indicates that substantively changing behavior to improve health is a complex task requiring intensive and more personalized interventions.

Source: Promoting handwashing behavior in Peru : the effect of large-scale mass-media and community level interventions

3D Animation Studio, Where Virtual-Reality Come Into Life

3D Animation Studio, the first thought leads to - Disney, Pixar, DreamWorks, and many more. These are a few great studios which has brought life to great characters like- 'Woody' (the pull string cowboy), 'Shrek' (the Ogre), or even witnessing the masterpiece Sci-Fi movie 'Avatar'.

Source: 3D Animation Studio, Where Virtual-Reality Come Into Life

Computer Animation: How It's Changed Everything

The computer has basically revolutionized how we as a society go about our everyday lives. We check our email, go on Facebook, read the news and search for videos on YouTube. In animation school, it became apparent that the old fashioned way of animating was becoming a thing of the past. Not necessarily so: some animators still go the old fashioned route, but computer animation and computer generated effects have pretty much changed the way animation and films are made.

Source: Computer Animation: How It's Changed Everything

An Animation Writer's Decision - The Hero's Journey Versus Good Versus Evil

Writing for animation essentially means writing for children. Story is important but should be short to allow for humor and character development.

Source: An Animation Writer's Decision - The Hero's Journey Versus Good Versus Evil

String Puppets and Other Fun Things

The ventriloquist puppet is also called a pull string puppet. This kind of puppet sits on the ventriloquist's lap. The ventriloquist places a hand into the back of the puppet. Inside the opening are strings that cause the puppet's mouth to move. Another string might be used to wave the puppet's hand.

Source: String Puppets and Other Fun Things

Top 5 Disney Sidekicks

The stories created by Disney are those of fairy tales and fantasy. Usually a hero will have to overcome insurmountable odds in order to succeed, but very rarely do they do it alone. As with superheroes in comic books, it's the same with Disney stories. The main character, be it the hero or princess gets by with a little help from their friends, the sidekicks.

Source: Top 5 Disney Sidekicks

Computer Animation Graphics: A Popular Career Choice

The 2012 Academy Awards have reinforced the love affair that Americans have with computer-generated animation. Computer animation is used in the films that are nominated and win reinforce the importance and place of computer animation in American life.

Source: Computer Animation Graphics: A Popular Career Choice

Best 3D Modelling Software - What to Look For

It's hard not to notice the achievements and advancements of 3D animation over the years. From Walt Disney right up to movies such as Tin Tin or a long, long list of current movies. Cartoons and mixed media. The audio, the colors and the movements! Incredible! It's possible now to buy your own software and learn all the techniques of advanced 3D animation and move it up to a money making and enjoyable career.

Source: Best 3D Modelling Software - What to Look For

3D Animation Software - A Quick Look At How It Is Used

In this article I will explain a few key points about animation and how it can be used in different context. This will give you an insight into the world of animation and help explain some of the methods they use on the big screen. Hope you enjoy the article.

Source: 3D Animation Software - A Quick Look At How It Is Used

How to Make a Cartoon on the Computer the Old Fashioned Way

A guide how to use modern tools for a classical hand drawn frame by frame animation. Photoshop and Flash can improve this process a lot.

Source: How to Make a Cartoon on the Computer the Old Fashioned Way

Top 3D Modeling Services

In this day and age, 3D modeling is a very common tool people are using when creating their works of art. If you are interested in having a 3D model for your project but don't know how to do it yourself there are plenty of 3D modeling services that can get the job done for you.

Source: Top 3D Modeling Services

Learn to Draw Cartoons: Keep It Simple

Learning to draw cartoons is a great hobby for anyone, at any age. You don't need lots of natural talent, just the desire to learn and the will to do it! Drawing cartoons is a place where you can exercise humor, and keep things light as you learn...

Source: Learn to Draw Cartoons: Keep It Simple

How to Make a Cartoon on the Computer With Flash and Skeletal Animation

A guide how to create cartoons from character drawings with Flash and skeletal animation in short time. There is quite a reputation around skeletal animation and vector model design. There's a good reason for its being so highly praised, and contrary to popular belief, it's very easy to use.

Source: How to Make a Cartoon on the Computer With Flash and Skeletal Animation

The 3D Adventure

The exciting adventure into a magical world with multiple dimensions where your imagination is allowed to run wild is the world of 3D animation. Take a swim in the deep blue sea exploding with tropical, colourful fish that you can almost touch and feel with your fingers.

Source: The 3D Adventure

The Guilty Pleasures Of Pixar Films

As a thirty year veteran of the Hollywood Animation Industry I may have a bias against 3D computer animated films since CGI animation effectively put my generation of animation artists out of work. But I've noticed how the obsolescence of traditional 2D animation has been reflected as a theme in the 3D films of Pixar.

Source: The Guilty Pleasures Of Pixar Films

The History of Japanese Anime

In 1854, with the opening of Japan to foreign trade, the technologies developed in the West were introduced to and quickly adopted by many in Japan. That ushers in the era of Japanese animation in 1914 with the earliest anime being first screened in 1917 with a two minute clip of a folk tale and comedy about a samurai warrior.

Source: The History of Japanese Anime

The Best 3D Character Animation Software

3D character animation is growing in leaps and bounds. 3D characters are used in every many facets, including games, videos, design industry, and business presentations.

Source: The Best 3D Character Animation Software

Get Your Career Started in 3D Animation

When you were a small child were you fascinated with animated movies? Would you sit mesmerized in front of the television watching your favorite animated show? Did you spend your free time drawing or found yourself doodling during class? Well, I'm sure you are already aware you fit this description, then you are in love with animation.

Source: Get Your Career Started in 3D Animation

The Coolest Animated Movies Of All Time

A disclaimer: We're discussing 2D, traditional, hand drawn animation, not 3D computer graphic designed animation. These are also not in any real particular order as taste dictates what is "coolest" and this list is more for use as a "suggested viewing" list.

Source: The Coolest Animated Movies Of All Time

Overview of One Piece Episode One

The story begins with a view of a civilian ship sailing leisurely through the ocean and an insight into the happenings on board, inside the main room many glamorous individuals are eating, drinking and dancing. The sailors on the deck are all going about their duties - bar a few, who spot a barrel floating in the sea and decide to use a grappling hook to bring it aboard - thinking it to be wine or something valuable. Disaster then strikes when one of the sailors sights a pirate ship on the horizon, flying the flag of Alvida...

Source: Overview of One Piece Episode One

Animation Programs for Beginners

Do you have a desire to learn animation and other computer graphics techniques? If so, you probably just need a little direction or a little motivation to get you started. All it takes is you wanting to start doing what you love and with a little time, effort, and patience you will be on your way.

Source: Animation Programs for Beginners

Hire 3D Animation Services for Building Design and Construction

Architects, interior designers and civil engineers all have to work so very hard to communicate their ideas for the designing and construction of a building. They have to draw designs, construct models but still it feels as if the idea is not properly getting across. They can remove this minor hurdle and benefit greatly by using 3D modeling services for their designs.

Source: Hire 3D Animation Services for Building Design and Construction

How to Make 3D Characters In iClone

iClone has endless features to help you developer the 3D character in your visions. Here is how you can build your very own animation with each of the many features provided.

Source: How to Make 3D Characters In iClone

Architectural Rendering Services

Architectural Rendering services is an innovation in the industry that is used for creating a visual impact of exterior as well as interior, and marketing purpose. Read more...

Source: Architectural Rendering Services

All Aspects and Areas of 3D Animation Applications

3D Animation certainly became the new fad this year with box office hits such as The Lion King 3D, Toy Story 3, as well as Puss in Boots, just to name a few. 3D Animation technology is growing and expanding everyday and has surpassed the movies.

Source: All Aspects and Areas of 3D Animation Applications

25 Years of Pixar

Two and a half decades of imaginative story-telling have passed since Pixar opened our eyes to computer animation. Ever since the release of Toy Story in 1995, people have been entertained by the timeless classics that churn out of Disney's sister studio.

Source: 25 Years of Pixar

Full Metal Alchemist the Story of Edward Eric

Full metal alchemist is the story of two brothers. It was written by Hiromu Arakawa. The brothers are Edward Eric and Alphonse Eric. In this story people use alchemy. Alchemy is the science of equivalent exchange.

Source: Full Metal Alchemist the Story of Edward Eric

My Favorite Animation Dinosaurs

Ironically, the two aspects of working in an animation studio that I liked the best, outside of the paycheck, are now both gone. Animation cell setups and animation pencil tests hold a fascination for me, even today.

Source: My Favorite Animation Dinosaurs

How To Time Action For An Animated Film Or Music Video Part 2

Legendary animation director Chuck Jones once gave a talk to the students of Cal Arts and complained that some studios "over animate". In a Bugs Bunny episode which is a highly stylized comedic cartoon, such details would certainly be out of place and even a distraction but for a more realistic environment, God is in the details.

Source: How To Time Action For An Animated Film Or Music Video Part 2

How To Time Action For An Animated Film Or Music Video Part 1

Whether you're making a classically animated 2D film, an animated music video or a 3D CGI computer animated movie the basics of animation timing remain the same. Everyone has their own individual style of timing such as they have their own individual drawing style and the work of directors such as Chuck Jones and Tex Avery can be spotted based on their animation timing alone.

Source: How To Time Action For An Animated Film Or Music Video Part 1

Disney's 2013 Animation - The King of the Elves

Disney has had a run of recent successes from its latest films. As the old formula is returned with Disney princesses, Broadway style songs and fairy tales, there are rumours of a Disney Revival, the likes of which we haven't seen since the Disney Renaissance in the later 80s and 90s. It's not surprising therefore, that a lot is riding on their upcoming animation; The King of Elves.

Source: Disney's 2013 Animation - The King of the Elves

Drawing Cartoon Children Using Correct Proportions

When drawing cartoon children increasing the size of the head in relation to the body can help your viewer to see the age of child you are drawing. A baby's head is around twice as large related to whole body height as is the case for a grown adult. Get to be familiar with the ratios to bring your cartoon to life.

Source: Drawing Cartoon Children Using Correct Proportions

How to Get Rich as a Cartoon Animator

My students at Cal Arts would occasionally ask how one gets rich as an animator. To get rich in the field of Animation one must own a character that becomes a "star".

Source: How to Get Rich as a Cartoon Animator

3D Animation - Make Better Designs for Your Dime

Transitioning into the world of 3D animation has been an exciting adventure for many studios across the world. The chance to gain inspiration from a whole new perspective is largely a great gift, but has proven to be slightly problematic for more classic companies. Disney itself came into a minor crisis, due to the fact that Mickey was always drawn with both circular ears visible at all angles, to keep his trademark silhouette.

Source: 3D Animation - Make Better Designs for Your Dime

Review for Nodame Cantabile - A Romantic Love Story

?Nodame Cantabile is originally a series of Japanese manga drawn by Tomoko Ninomiya. The manga was later turned into an anime and Japanese Drama. While the manga provides a quick story, the anime and Japanese Drama allows the audience to enjoy fully the classical music that is being played.

Source: Review for Nodame Cantabile - A Romantic Love Story

The Real World Brought to Life in Character Animation-3D Rigging

The animators are so intricate in each step of 3D character design. Each animator is an expert in his or her own field of design. This expertise includes but is not limited to modeling, texturing, and rigging.

Source: The Real World Brought to Life in Character Animation-3D Rigging

3D Modeling - Start Your Epic Creation

It may seem scary and complex at first, but to let you in on a little secret you are already a 3D model master! Everyone has created a 3D model before, most likely as a youngster; remember Play-Dough, Model Magic? You were an expert 3D modeler at the age of five and didn't even know it!

Source: 3D Modeling - Start Your Epic Creation

3D Character Animation - Bringing Motion and Emotion to the Arts

When an animator is asked what drives the passion in their work the most, the answer is always 'bringing the characters to life'. What other medium allows the artist to not only design and flesh out their own creations, but have them move and interact with a world of their own?

Source: 3D Character Animation - Bringing Motion and Emotion to the Arts

What Is Anime Based On?

Anime is most commonly based off of a manga, which is basically the Japanese word for comics. That's not all though, anime is also very commonly based on video games, and some even have entire franchises of video games based on the anime. Of course, some anime are even original creations, these however require far more work than simply taking comic strips and animating them together (not a proper explanation of the manga to anime transformation but the gist of it). Original creations require, at least in my opinion, a truly visionary person to create them.

Source: What Is Anime Based On?

Otaku Culture: What Is an Otaku and What Do They Do?

Have you ever wondered what an otaku is? Or possibly what a little bit of their history is? Well, it's covered right here. Find out what an otaku is and what they do. Discover the differences between using the term in it's native country Japan versus using it outside of the country in places such as America.

Source: Otaku Culture: What Is an Otaku and What Do They Do?

The Disney Revival

There's a few whispers among Disney fans that a second renaissance is on its way. What was seen in the 1980's with the rise in popularity for their animated films, after a troubled period for the studio, can be seen happening again today. Many Disney fans have dubbed this period the Disney Revival.

Source: The Disney Revival

Internal migration in Ghana : determinants and welfare impacts



Source: Internal migration in Ghana : determinants and welfare impacts

Experimental approaches in migration studies

The decision of whether or not to migrate has far-reaching consequences for the lives of individuals and their families. But the very nature of this choice makes identifying the impacts of migration difficult, since it is hard to measure a credible counterfactual of what the person and their household would have been doing had migration not occurred. Migration experiments provide a clear and credible way for identifying this counterfactual, and thereby allowing causal estimation of the impacts of migration. The authors provide an overview and critical review of the three strands of this approach: policy experiments, natural experiments, and researcher-led field experiments. The purpose is to introduce readers to the need for this approach, give examples of where it has been applied in practice, and draw out lessons for future work in this area.

Source: Experimental approaches in migration studies

How and why does history matter for development policy ?

The consensus among scholars and policymakers that "institutions matter" for development has led inexorably to a conclusion that "history matters," since institutions clearly form and evolve over time. Unfortunately, however, the next logical step has not yet been taken, which is to recognize that historians (and not only economic historians) might also have useful and distinctive insights to offer. This paper endeavors to open and sustain a constructive dialogue between history -- understood as both "the past" and "the discipline" -- and development policy by (a) clarifying what the craft of historical scholarship entails, especially as it pertains to understanding causal mechanisms, contexts, and complex processes of institutional change; (b) providing examples of historical research that support, qualify, or challenge the most influential research (by economists and economic historians) in contemporary development policy; and (c) offering some general principles and specific implications that historians, on the basis of the distinctive content and method of their research, bring to development policy debates.

Source: How and why does history matter for development policy ?

The development impact of a best practice seasonal worker policy

Seasonal migration programs are widely used around the world, and are increasingly seen as offering a potential "triple-win"-- benefiting the migrant, sending country, and receiving country. Yet there is a dearth of rigorous evidence as to their development impact, and concerns about whether the time periods involved are too short to realize much in the way of benefits, and whether poorer, less skilled households actually get to participate in such programs. This paper studies the development impacts of a recently introduced seasonal worker program that has been deemed to be "best practice." New Zealand's Recognized Seasonal Employer program was launched in 2007 with an explicit focus on development in the Pacific alongside the aim of benefiting employers at home. A multi-year prospective evaluation allows measurement of the impact of participation in this program on households and communities in Tonga and Vanuatu. Using a matched difference-in-differences analysis based on detailed surveys fielded before, during, and after participation, the authors find that the Recognized Seasonal Employer program has indeed had largely positive development impacts. It has increased income and consumption of households, allowed households to purchase more durable goods, increased the subjective standard of living, and had additional benefits at the community level. It also increased child schooling in Tonga. This should rank it among the most effective development policies evaluated to date. The policy was designed as a best practice example based on lessons elsewhere, and now should serve as a model for other countries to follow.

Source: The development impact of a best practice seasonal worker policy

Impacts of international migration and remittances on child outcomes and labor supply in Indonesia : how does gender matter ?

This paper aims to investigate empirically how international migration and remittances in Indonesia, particularly female migration, affect child outcomes and labor supply behavior in sending households. The authors analyze the Indonesia Family Life Survey data set and apply an instrumental variable estimation method, using historical migration networks as instruments for migration and remittance receipts. The study finds that, in Indonesia, the impacts of international migration on sending households are likely to vary depending on the gender of the migrants. On average, migration reduces the working hours of remaining household members, but this effect is not observed in households with female migrants. At the same time, female migration and their remittances tend to reduce child labor. The estimated impacts of migration and remittances on school enrollment are not statistically significant, but this result is interesting in that the directions of the effects can be opposite when the migrant is male or female

Source: Impacts of international migration and remittances on child outcomes and labor supply in Indonesia : how does gender matter ?

Intersubjective meaning and collective action in 'fragile' societies : theory, evidence and policy implications

The capacity to act collectively is not just a matter of groups sharing interests, incentives and values (or being sufficiently small), as standard economic theory predicts, but a prior and shared understanding of the constituent elements of problem(s) and possible solutions. From this standpoint, the failure to act collectively can stem at least in part from relevant groups failing to ascribe a common intersubjective meaning to situations, processes and events. Though this is a general phenomenon, it is particularly salient in countries characterized by societal fragility and endemic conflict. We develop a conceptual account of intersubjective meanings, explain its relevance to development practice and research, and examine its implications for development work related to building the rule of law and managing common pool resources.

Source: Intersubjective meaning and collective action in 'fragile' societies : theory, evidence and policy implications

Diaspora effects in international migration : key questions and methodological issues

This paper reviews the existing literature on the impact of migrants networks on the patterns of international migration. It covers the theoretical channels at stake in the global effect of the networks. It identifies the key issues, namely the impact on size, selection and concentration of the migration flows. The paper also reviews the empirical hurdles that the researchers face in assessing the importance of networks. The key issues concern the choice of micro vs a macro approach, the definition of a network, the access to suitable data and the adoption of econometric methods accounting for the main features of those data. Finally, the paper reports a set of estimation outcomes reflecting the main findings of the macro approach.

Source: Diaspora effects in international migration : key questions and methodological issues

The correlation between human capital and morality and its effect on economic performance : theory and evidence

This paper incorporates morality -- defined as lower utility from consuming goods obtained through appropriative rather than productive activities -- into a simple static general equilibrium model in which agents choose whether to be producers or appropriators. The authors analyze the relationship between the correlation between morality and human capital on the one hand, and aggregate economic performance on the other. They show that there is a main effect that tends to cause this relationship to be positive, and that there can be secondary effects that can either rein-force or oppose (or even overbalance) the main effect. They test the theory using the World Val-ues Survey as a source of proxies for morality. Using their preferred proxy, they find evidence that higher within-country correlation between morality and ability, holding constant the levels of morality and ability, increases per-capita income levels. Under the preferred specification, a one-standard-deviation increase in the correlation between morality and ability raises the log of per-capita income by about one-fourth of a standard deviation, equal to approximately $3,600 for the median income country in the sample. The results are robust to correcting for endogeneity and to changes in sample and specification. The results are mixed when the analysis uses alternative morality proxies, but the coefficient on the morality-ability correlation is still usually positive and statistically significant.

Source: The correlation between human capital and morality and its effect on economic performance : theory and evidence