MikeLigalig.com

MAR 25, 2020

Social Distancing and Quarantine Were Used in Medieval Times to Fight the Black Death

DAVE ROOS

Almost 700 years ago, the overwhelmed physicians and health officials fighting a devastating outbreak of bubonic plague in medieval Italy had no notion of viruses or bacteria, but they understood enough about the Black Death to implement some of the world's first anti-contagion measures.

Starting in 1348, soon after the plague arrived in cities like Venice and Milan, city officials put emergency public health measures in place that foreshadowed today's best practices of social distancing and disinfecting surfaces.

"They knew that you had to be very careful with goods that are being traded, because the disease could be spread on objects and surfaces, and that you tried your best to limit person-to-person contact," says Jane Stevens Crawshaw, a senior lecturer in early modern European history at Oxford Brookes University.


A 14th-century Italian fresco of the plague, from the Stories of St Nicholas of Tolentino. DeAgostini/Getty Images

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Travel scams (Don't get wander-lost)

How it works: You get an email advertising an amazing deal on airline tickets to some exotic destination. Or, you see such a deal on the social media account of what appears to be a legitimate airline.

What's really going on: Like the "free trial" scam, these travel scams often have all sorts of extra costs hidden in the fine print behind that alluring cheap price. Most likely, you'll end up with a lighter wallet and no plane ticket.

The big picture: The peak time for these kinds of online scams is summertime when people have vacation on the brain. They're also common right before holidays such as Christmas and New Year. Scammers intentionally choose exotic, remote places that would be difficult to get to without their "amazing offer." Finally, they throw in an expiration date, saying that you've only got so many weeks or months to take advantage of this offer, hoping that a sense of urgency will rope you in.

Avoidance maneuver: Scour the details of the offer before clicking any sort of confirmation button, and certainly before giving any payment information. Make sure that what you see really is what you get. And, even if you crave a solo trip, it can't hurt to get a second pair of eyes as well. Another good tip is just to stick to travel agencies you trust; there are plenty of legitimate sites that still offer good deals. Finally, learning these cybersecurity secrets hackers don't want you to know will help you stay one step ahead of scammers.

https://www.rd.com/

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Hitman scam (This one's killer)

How it works: You get an email (or a text) from someone saying he's been hired to kill you or to kidnap a family member. He'll insist you send a large amount of money to a certain email address in exchange for your safety. Usually, the email will also warn you against contacting the authorities.

What's really going on: There is no assassin. Somebody found your email address randomly (along with hundreds of others) and just wants your money.

The big picture: Your first thought might be to wonder how anyone could possibly fall for this. But keep in mind that the first response of anyone who's just been threatened with murder online is, most likely, to panic. Even scarier, many of these scams include the victim's personal information, which is all too easy to access through social media.

Avoidance maneuver: If you get one of these scary messages, the best thing to do is to ignore it. Responding to the scammer clues them in that they have reached a live account, and they'll probably respond with more aggressive threats. No one wants that. Also, go ahead and contact the authorities; the better to stop the scammer in his tracks. To avoid being scammed, be careful about what you share on social media—there are some pieces of information you should definitely not be posting.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

A terrible scam-azon (Yes, that deal really is too good to be true)

How it works: You're doing some online shopping, as one does. You see what looks like a great deal on Amazon, a site you totally trust, and place an order.

What's really going on: The seller's a scammer; they're going to send you a counterfeit product, or nothing at all, and they'll still get your money.

The big picture: These scammers take advantage of Amazon's policies to profit. They post delivery dates that are three or four weeks from the date of purchase. Since Amazon pays its sellers every two weeks, the scammers will receive payment long before you discover that it was a scam. This scam technique hurts not just buyers, but other sellers as well. Rob Ridgeway, who sells board games through Amazon, complains that fake sellers are stealing his business. He's reported many of the scammers to Amazon, but more just keep coming. "I continue to play 'whack-a-mole,' trying to remove fake sellers," Ridgeway told BuzzFeed News.

Avoidance maneuver: Watch out for new sellers (also known as "just launched" sellers), and take a careful look at the seller's reviews before you buy from him or her. If you do fall victim to a scam, contact Amazon; their A-to-Z guarantee says that they have to refund you if you received a fake product (or none at all).

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Love for sale (The cruelest con)

How it works: You meet someone on a dating site, on Facebook, in a chat room, or while playing a virtual game. You exchange pictures, talk on the phone. It soon becomes obvious that you were meant for each other. But the love of your life lives in a foreign country and needs money to get away from a cruel father or to get medical care or to buy a plane ticket so you can finally be together.

What's really going on: Your new love is a scam artist. There will be no tearful hug at the airport, no happily-ever-after. You will lose your money and possibly your faith in humankind.

The big picture: Online social networking has opened up bold new avenues for heartless scammers who specialize in luring lonely people into bogus friendships and love affairs, only to steal their money.

Cindy Dawson, a 39-year-old customer service representative for a manufacturing firm, fell for a Nigerian named Simon Peters whom she met on a dating site. "We started talking on the phone," the divorced mother of three recalls. "He said his father lived in Bolingbrook, Illinois, not far from me." They exchanged photos; Peters was a handsome man. Dawson sent him pictures of her kids, who also talked to him on the phone. "He kept saying how much he cared about me," says Dawson, fighting back tears at the memory. "I was in love with him."

Soon enough, Peters started asking for money—small amounts at first, to buy food. He always wanted the money wired by Western Union to someone named Adelwale Mazu. Peters said he couldn't use his own name because he didn't have the right documentation. "It started progressing to higher amounts of money," says Dawson. "I sent him money for airfare from Nigeria. I drove to the airport, but he never showed."

Peters continued working the scam, explaining that authorities in Lagos wouldn't let him board the plane. Then he needed money for school. Then he was stuck in London. "Everybody told me he was scamming me," says Dawson, "but I didn't want to believe it. Finally my 12-year-old daughter said, 'Stop sending him money; he's never coming.'" After reading about these types of online scams, Dawson searched for the fake name and figured out that Peters's photo was a stock image of a male model repurposed from the Web. "He got about $15,000 out of me," she says. "I was angry, and I felt stupid."

Avoidance maneuver: "On the Internet, it is almost impossible to be too paranoid," says Durst. "But don't be paralyzed; be smart." Dating and social-networking sites can be a great way to meet new friends, even from foreign countries. But if someone you know only from the Web asks for money, sign off quickly and follow these other tips for keeping yourself safe from online dating scams.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

We are the world (The world of charity scams, that is)

How it works: You get an email with an image of a malnourished orphan—from Haiti or another developing nation. "Please give what you can today," goes the charity's plea, followed by a request for cash. To speed relief efforts, the email recommends you send a Western Union wire transfer as well as detailed personal information—your address and your Social Security and checking account numbers.

What's really going on: The charity is a scam designed to harvest your cash and banking information. Nothing goes to helping disaster victims.

The big picture: The Internet, email, and text messaging have given new life to age-old charity scams. "These cons watch the headlines very closely," says Durst, and they quickly set up websites and PayPal accounts to take advantage of people's kindness and sympathy. Durst recalls seeing fake donation websites within days of Michael Jackson's death, urging fans to contribute to his favorite charities. Natural disasters, too, tend to spawn all sorts of fake charities.

Avoidance maneuver: Donate to real charities on their own websites. Find the sites yourself instead of clicking on links in email solicitations; in the wake of the Haiti earthquake, scammers even set up fake Red Cross sites that looked real. Genuine aid organizations will accept donations by credit card or check; they won't ask for wire transfers, bank account information, or Social Security numbers. Donations via text message are okay as long as you confirm the number with the organization.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Dialing for dollars (With a ring of fraud)

How it works: You get a text message on your cell phone from your bank or credit card issuer: There's been a problem, and you need to call right away with some account information. Or the message says you've won a gift certificate to a chain store—just call the toll-free number to get yours now.

What's really going on: The "bank" is a scammer hoping you'll reveal your account information. The gift certificate is equally bogus; when you call the number, you'll be told you need to subscribe to magazines or pay shipping fees to collect your prize. If you bite, you will have surrendered your credit card information to "black hat" marketers who will ring up phony charges.

The big picture: Welcome to "smishing," which stands for "SMS phishing," the text-message version of the lucrative email scam. In this ploy, scammers take advantage of the smart-phone revolution—hoping that a text message to your cell will make it less likely you'll investigate the source, as you might do while sitting at your desk. Since many banks and businesses do offer text-message notifications, the scam has the air of legitimacy. Shirena Parker, a 20-year-old newlywed in Sacramento, California, was thrilled when she got a text message announcing she'd won a $250 Wal-Mart gift card. When she called the number, a representative explained there would be a $2 shipping charge (later upped to $4 by another "representative"). Parker gave the scammer her debit card number and started getting round-the-clock calls from him, asking for the phone numbers and emails of friends and family. "It was turning into harassment," she says. After two days, she contacted the Better Business Bureau, which told her that Wal-Mart was not giving away gift cards. Hearing that, Parker's husband canceled their debit card before the con could empty the account but not before he had helped himself to the $4 "shipping" charge. "I don't know how they got my name and phone number," says Parker. "But I learned my lesson." Scammers can even reach you by mail–beware of this new trick that targets pregnant women.

Avoidance maneuver: Real banks and stores might send you notices via text message (if you've signed up for the service), but they never ask for account information. If you're unsure, call the bank or store directly. You can also try the Better Business Bureau, or Google the phone number to see if any scam reports turn up. Had Parker checked out the phone number, she would have learned this was a scam, and probably could avoid these phone call scams that can steal your money, too.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Your computer is infected! (And we can help)

How it works: A window pops up about a legitimate-sounding antivirus software program like "Antivirus XP 2010" or "SecurityTool," alerting you that your machine has been infected with a dangerous bug. You're prompted to click on a link that will run a scan. Of course, the virus is found—and for a fee, typically about $50, the company promises to clean up your computer.

What's really going on: When you click on the link, the bogus company installs malware—malicious software—on your computer. No surprise, there will be no cleanup. But the thieves have your credit card number, you're out the money, and your computer is left on life support. Scams are everywhere–you can even become a "doctor" online with just $99.

The big picture: "Scareware" like this is predicted to be the most costly Internet scam of 2010, with over a million users affected daily, according to Dave Marcus, director of security and research for McAfee Labs, a producer of antivirus software. "This is a very clever trick," says Marcus, "because people have been told for the past 20 years to watch out for computer viruses." Even computer veterans fall prey. Stevie Wilson, a blogger and social-media business consultant in Los Angeles, got a pop-up from a company called Personal Antivirus. "It looked very Microsoft-ish, and it said I had downloaded a virus," she recalls. "It did a scan and said it found 40 Trojan horses, worms, and viruses. I was concerned that they were infecting emails I was sending to clients, so I paid to upgrade my anti-virus software. Right after I rebooted, my computer stopped working." Wilson had to wipe her computer hard drive clean and reinstall everything. Although most of her files were backed up, she lost personal photos and hundreds of iTunes files. "I felt powerless," she says.

Avoidance maneuver: If you get a pop-up virus warning, close the window without clicking on any links. Then run a full system scan using legitimate, updated antivirus software like free editions of AVG Anti-Virus or ThreatFire AntiVirus. Tip: Your "private" browser may not be so private.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

The not-so-sweet tweet (It's a real long shot)

How it works: You get a "tweet" from a Twitter follower, raving about a contest for a free iPad or some other expensive prize: "Just click on the link to learn more."

What's really going on: The link downloads a "bot" (software robot), adding your computer to a botnet of "zombies" that scammers use to send spam email.

The big picture: Scammers are taking advantage of URL-shortening services that allow Twitter users to share links that would otherwise be longer than the 140-character maximum for a tweet. These legitimate services break down a huge URL to ten or 15 characters. But when users can't see the actual URL, it's easy for bad guys to post malicious links.

Avoidance maneuver: Before clicking on a Twitter link from a follower you don't know, check out his profile, says Josh George, a website entrepreneur in Vancouver, Washington, who follows online scams. "If he's following hundreds of thousands of people and nobody is following him, it's a bot," he says—a good tip to keep in mind for how to protect yourself online and avoid being scammed.

MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

The hot spot imposter (He's close, real close)

How it works: You're sitting in an airport or a coffee shop and you log into the local Wi-Fi zone. It could be free, or it could resemble a pay service like Boingo Wireless. You get connected, and everything seems fine.

What's really going on: The site only looks legitimate. It's actually run by a nearby criminal from a laptop. If it's a "free" site, the crook is mining your computer for banking, credit card, and other password information. If it's a fake pay site, he gets your purchase payment, then sells your card number to other crooks.

The big picture: Fake Wi-Fi hot spots are cropping up everywhere, and it can be difficult to tell them from the real thing. "It's lucrative and easy to do," says Brian Yoder, vice president of engineering at CyberDefender, a manufacturer of antivirus software. "Criminals duplicate the legitimate Web page of a Wi-Fi provider like Verizon or AT&T and tweak it so it sends your information to their laptop."

Avoidance maneuver: Make sure you're not set up to automatically connect to nonpreferred networks. (For PCs, go to the Network and Sharing Center in the Control Panel. Click on the link for the Wi-Fi network you're currently using. A box with a "General" tab should pop up. Click "Wireless Properties." Then, uncheck the box next to "Connect automatically when this network is in range," and click OK to enable. For Macs, click on the Wifi button in the upper right, click "Open Network Preferences," and check "Ask to join new networks.") Before traveling, buy a $20 Visa or MasterCard gift card to purchase airport Wi-Fi access (enough for two days) so you won't broadcast your credit or debit card information. Or set up an advance account with providers at airports you'll be visiting. And don't do any banking or Internet shopping from public hot spots unless you're certain the network is secure. (Look for https in the URL, or check the lower right-hand corner of your browser for a small padlock icon.) Finally, always be on the lookout for these red flags someone is spying on your computer, whether you're in public or not.

10 Online Scams You Need to Be Aware of—And How to Avoid Them

Meghan Jones

Swindlers may be following your every tweet and post, looking for a chance to fleece you. Here's how to confound 10 major online cons.
virus


MACROVECTOR/SHUTTERSTOCK

Free trial offer! (Just pay forever)

How it works: You see an Internet offer for a free one-month trial of some amazing product—often a teeth whitener or a weight-loss program. All you pay is $5.95 for shipping and handling.

What's really going on: Buried in fine print, often in a color that washes into the background, are terms that obligate you to pay $79 to $99 a month in fees, forever.

The big picture: "These guys are really shrewd," says Christine Durst, an Internet fraud expert who has consulted for the FBI and the FTC. "They know that most people don't read all the fine print before clicking on 'I agree,' and even people who glance at it just look for numbers. So the companies spell out the numbers, with no dollar signs; anything that has to do with money or a time frame gets washed into the text." That's exactly what you'll see in the terms for Xtreme Cleanse, a weight-loss pill that ends up costing "seventy-nine dollars ninety-five cents plus five dollars and ninety-five cents shipping and handling" every month once the 14-day free trial period ends or until you cancel.

Avoidance maneuver: Read the fine print on offers, and don't believe every testimonial. Check TinEye.com, a search engine that scours the Web for identical photos. If that woman with perfect teeth shows up everywhere promoting different products, you can be fairly certain her "testimonial" is bogus. Reputable companies will allow you to cancel, but if you can't get out of a "contract," cancel your card immediately, then negotiate a refund; if that doesn't work, appeal to your credit card company. Not all websites will lose you money–Youtube can make you a fortune.

great!

SOURCES

Disease and History by Frederick C. Cartwright, published by Sutton Publishing, 2014.

Disease: The Story of Disease and Mankind's Continuing Struggle Against It by Mary Dobson, published by Quercus, 2007.

Encyclopedia of Pestilence, Pandemics, and Plagues by Ed, Joseph P. Byrne, published by Greenwood Press, 2008.

Influenza, The American Experience.

Source Book of Medical History, Logan Clendening, published by Dover Publications, 1960.

Citation Information

Article Title
Pandemics That Changed History

Author
History.com Editors

Website Name
HISTORY

URL
https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline

Access Date
March 24, 2020

Publisher
A&E Television Networks

Last Updated
March 23, 2020

Original Published Date
February 27, 2019

BY HISTORY.COM EDITORS

2019: COVID-19


This photo taken on February 17, 2020 shows a man (L) who has displayed mild symptoms of the COVID-19 coronavirus using a laptop at an exhibition centre converted into a hospital in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province.
STR/AFP/Getty Images

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization announced that the COVID-19 virus was officially a pandemic after barreling through 114 countries in three months and infecting over 118,000 people. And the spread wasn't anywhere near finished.

COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus, the family of viruses that includes the common flu and SARS. Symptoms include respiratory problems, fever, and cough, and can lead to pneumonia and death. Like SARS, it's spread through droplets from sneezes.

The first reported case in China appeared November 17, 2019, in the Hubei Province, but went unrecognized. Eight more cases appeared in December with researchers pointing to an unknown virus.

Many learned about COVID-19-19 when ophthalmologist Dr. Li Wenliang defied government orders and released safety information to other doctors. The following day, China informed the WHO and charged Li with a crime. Li died from COVID-19 just over a month later.

Without a vaccine available, the virus spread beyond Chinese borders and by mid-March, it had spread globally to more than 163 countries. On February 11, the infection was officially christened COVID-19.

2003: SARS

First identified in 2003 after several months of cases, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is believed to have possibly started with bats, spread to cats and then to humans in China, followed by 26 other countries, infecting 8,096 people, with 774 deaths.

SARS is characterized by respiratory problems, dry cough, fever and head and body aches and is spread through respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes.

Quarantine efforts proved effective and by July, the virus was contained and hasn't reappeared since. China was criticized for trying to suppress information about the virus at the beginning of the outbreak.

SARS was seen by global health professionals as a wake-up call to improve outbreak responses, and lessons from the pandemic were used to keep diseases like H1N1, Ebola and Zika under control.

1981: HIV/AIDS

First identified in 1981, AIDS destroys a person's immune system, resulting in eventual death by diseases that the body would usually fight off. Those infected by the HIV virus encounter fever, headache, and enlarged lymph nodes upon infection. When symptoms subside, carriers become highly infectious through blood and genital fluid, and the disease destroys t-cells.

AIDS was first observed in American gay communities but is believed to have developed from a chimpanzee virus from West Africa in the 1920s. The disease, which spreads through certain body fluids, moved to Haiti in the 1960s, and then New York and San Francisco in the 1970s.

Treatments have been developed to slow the progress of the disease, but 35 million people worldwide have died of AIDS since its discovery, and a cure is yet to be found.

1957: Asian flu

Starting in Hong Kong and spreading throughout China and then into the United States, the Asian flu became widespread in England where, over six months, 14,000 people died. A second wave followed in early 1958, causing an estimated total of about 1.1 million deaths globally, with 116,000 deaths in the United States alone. A vaccine was developed, effectively containing the pandemic.

1918: Spanish Flu

The avian-borne flu that resulted in 50 million deaths worldwide, the 1918 flu was first observed in Europe, the United States and parts of Asia before swiftly spreading around the world. At the time, there were no effective drugs or vaccines to treat this killer flu strain. Wire service reports of a flu outbreak in Madrid in the spring of 1918 led to the pandemic being called the "Spanish flu."

By October, hundreds of thousands of Americans died and body storage scarcity hit crisis level. But the flu threat disappeared in the summer of 1919 when most of the infected had either developed immunities or died.

1889: Russian Flu

The first significant flu pandemic started in Siberia and Kazakhstan, traveled to Moscow, and made its way into Finland and then Poland, where it moved into the rest of Europe. By the following year, it had crossed the ocean into North America and Africa. By the end of 1890, 360,000 had died.

1875: Fiji Measles Pandemic

After Fiji ceded to the British Empire, a royal party visited Australia as a gift from Queen Victoria. Arriving during a measles outbreak, the royal party brought the disease back to their island, and it was spread further by the tribal heads and police who met with them upon their return.

Spreading quickly, the island was littered with corpses that were scavenged by wild animals, and entire villages died and were burned down, sometimes with the sick trapped inside the fires. One-third of Fiji's population, a total of 40,000 people, died.

1855: The Third Plague Pandemic

Starting in China and moving to India and Hong Kong, the bubonic plague claimed 15 million victims. Initially spread by fleas during a mining boom in Yunnan, the plague is considered a factor in the Parthay rebellion and the Taiping rebellion. India faced the most substantial casualties, and the epidemic was used as an excuse for repressive policies that sparked some revolt against the British. The pandemic was considered active until 1960 when cases dropped below a couple hundred.

1817: First Cholera Pandemic

The first of seven cholera pandemics over the next 150 years, this wave of the small intestine infection originated in Russia, where one million people died. Spreading through feces-infected water and food, the bacterium was passed along to British soldiers who brought it to India where millions more died. The reach of the British Empire and its navy spread cholera to Spain, Africa, Indonesia, China, Japan, Italy, Germany, and America, where it killed 150,000 people. A vaccine was created in 1885, but pandemics continued.

1665: The Great Plague of London


A graph showing the huge increase in deaths during the Great Plague of London in 1665 and 1666. The solid line shows all deaths and the broken line deaths attributed to the plague.
Hulton Archive/Getty Images

In another devastating appearance, the bubonic plague led to the deaths of 20 percent of London's population. As human death tolls mounted and mass graves appeared, hundreds of thousands of cats and dogs were slaughtered as the possible cause and the disease spread through ports along the Thames. The worst of the outbreak tapered off in the fall of 1666, around the same time as another destructive event—the Great Fire of London.

1492: The Columbian Exchange

Following the arrival of the Spanish in the Caribbean, diseases such as smallpox, measles and bubonic plague were passed along to the native populations by the Europeans. With no previous exposure, these diseases devastated indigenous people, with as many as 90 percent dying throughout the north and south continents.

Upon arrival on the island of Hispaniola, Christopher Columbus encountered the Taino people, population 60,000. By 1548, the population stood at less than 500. This scenario repeated itself throughout the Americas.

In 1520, the Aztec Empire was destroyed by a smallpox infection brought by African slaves.

Research in 2019 even concluded that the deaths of some 56 million Native Americans in the 16th and 17th centuries, largely through disease, may have altered Earth's climate as vegetation growth on previously tilled land drew more CO2 from the atmosphere and caused a cooling event.

1350: The Black Death

Responsible for the death of one-third of the world population, this second large outbreak of the bubonic plague possibly started in Asia and moved west in caravans. Entering through Sicily in 1347 A.D. when plague sufferers arrived in the port of Messina, it spread throughout Europe rapidly. Dead bodies became so prevalent that many remained rotting on the ground and created a constant stench in cities.

England and France were so incapacitated by the plague that the countries called a truce to their war. The British feudal system collapsed when the plague changed economic circumstances and demographics. Ravaging populations in Greenland, Vikings lost the strength to wage battle against native populations, and their exploration of North America halted.

11th Century: Leprosy

Though it had been around for ages, leprosy grew into a pandemic in Europe in the Middle Ages, resulting in the building of numerous leprosy-focused hospitals to accommodate the vast number of victims.

A slow-developing bacterial disease that causes sores and deformities, leprosy was believed to be a punishment from God that ran in families. This belief led to moral judgments and ostracization of victims. Now known as Hansen's disease, it still afflicts tens of thousands of people a year and can be fatal if not treated with antibiotics.

541 A.D.: Justinian Plague

First appearing in Egypt, the Justinian plague spread through Palestine and the Byzantine Empire, and then throughout the Mediterranean.

The plague changed the course of the empire, squelching Emperor Justinian's plans to bring the Roman Empire back together and causing massive economic struggle. It is also credited with creating an apocalyptic atmosphere that spurred the rapid spread of Christianity.

Recurrences over the next two centuries eventually killed about 50 million people, 26 percent of the world population. It is believed to be the first significant appearance of the bubonic plague, which features an enlarged lymphatic gland and is carried by rats and spread by fleas.

250 A.D.: Cyprian Plague

Named after the first known victim, the Christian bishop of Carthage, the Cyprian plague entailed diarrhea, vomiting, throat ulcers, fever, and gangrenous hands and feet.

City dwellers fled to the country to escape infection but instead spread the disease further. Possibly starting in Ethiopia, it passed through Northern Africa, into Rome, then onto Egypt and northward.

There were recurring outbreaks over the next three centuries. In 444 A.D., it hit Britain and obstructed defense efforts against the Picts and the Scots, causing the British to seek help from the Saxons, who would soon control the island.

165 A.D.: Antonine Plague

The Antonine plague was possibly an early appearance of smallpox that began with the Huns. The Huns then infected the Germans, who passed it to the Romans and then returning troops spread it throughout the Roman empire. Symptoms included fever, sore throat, diarrhea and, if the patient lived long enough, pus-filled sores. This plague continued until about 180 A.D., claiming Emperor Marcus Aurelius as one of its victims.

430 B.C.: Athens

The earliest recorded pandemic happened during the Peloponnesian War. After the disease passed through Libya, Ethiopia, and Egypt, it crossed the Athenian walls as the Spartans laid siege. As much as two-thirds of the population died.

The symptoms included fever, thirst, bloody throat and tongue, red skin and lesions. The disease, suspected to have been typhoid fever, weakened the Athenians significantly and was a significant factor in their defeat by the Spartans.

Pandemics That Changed History

HISTORY.COM EDITORS
Updated Mar 23, 2020
Original: Jan 30, 2020


Universal History Archive/UIG/Getty Images

In the realm of infectious diseases, a pandemic is the worst case scenario. When an epidemic spreads beyond a country's borders, that's when the disease officially becomes a pandemic.

Communicable diseases existed during humankind's hunter-gatherer days, but the shift to agrarian life 10,000 years ago created communities that made epidemics more possible. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during this period.

The more civilized humans became, building cities and forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became. See a timeline below of pandemics that, in ravaging human populations, changed history.

   
Region: Oceania

Australia, Confirmed cases 100, Deaths 3

New Zealand, Confirmed cases 5,   Deaths 0


Region: Africa

Egypt, Confirmed cases 55, Deaths 1

Algeria, Confirmed cases 20, Deaths 0

South Africa, Confirmed cases 7, Deaths 0

Senegal, Confirmed cases 4, Deaths 0

Cameroon, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Nigeria, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Tunisia, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Morocco, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Togo, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Other, Cases on an international conveyance (Japan), 
       Confirmed cases 696, Deaths 7
   
Total, Confirmed cases 114243, Deaths 4023

sourced from: Situation update worldwide, as of 10 March 2020 08:00, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Region: America

United States of America, Confirmed cases 754, Deaths 26

Canada, Confirmed cases 77, Deaths 1

Brazil, Confirmed cases 25, Deaths 0

Ecuador, Confirmed cases 15, Deaths 0

Chile, Confirmed cases 13, Deaths 0

Argentina, Confirmed cases 12, Deaths 1

Costa Rica, Confirmed cases 9, Deaths 0

Peru, Confirmed cases 9, Deaths 0

Mexico, Confirmed cases 7, Deaths 0

Dominican Republic, Confirmed cases 5, Deaths 0

Colombia, Confirmed cases 3, Deaths 0

Panama, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Paraguay, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Region: Europe

Italy, Confirmed cases 9172, Deaths 464

France, Confirmed cases 1412, Deaths 30

Spain, Confirmed cases 1204, Deaths 28

Germany, Confirmed cases 1139, Deaths 2

Switzerland, Confirmed cases 374, Deaths 2

United Kingdom, Confirmed cases 321, Deaths 5

Netherlands, Confirmed cases 321, Deaths 3

Sweden, Confirmed cases 248, Deaths 0

Belgium, Confirmed cases 239, Deaths 0

Norway, Confirmed cases 192, Deaths 0

Austria, Confirmed cases 131, Deaths 0

Denmark, Confirmed cases 113, Deaths 0

Greece, Confirmed cases 84, Deaths 0

Iceland, Confirmed cases 65, Deaths 0

San Marino, Confirmed cases 49, Deaths 2

Czech Republic, Confirmed cases 40, Deaths 0

Finland, Confirmed cases 40, Deaths 0

Portugal, Confirmed cases 39, Deaths 0

Ireland, Confirmed cases 21, Deaths 0

Russia, Confirmed cases 20, Deaths 0

Poland, Confirmed cases 17, Deaths 0

Romania, Confirmed cases 17, Deaths 0

Slovenia, Confirmed cases 16, Deaths 0

Georgia, Confirmed cases 15, Deaths 0

Croatia, Confirmed cases 12, Deaths 0

Estonia, Confirmed cases 10, Deaths 0

Hungary, Confirmed cases 9, Deaths 0

Azerbaijan, Confirmed cases 9, Deaths 0

Belarus, Confirmed cases 6, Deaths 0

Latvia, Confirmed cases 6, Deaths 0

Albania, Confirmed cases 6, Deaths 0

Slovakia, Confirmed cases 5, Deaths 0

Luxembourg, Confirmed cases 5, Deaths 0

Bulgaria, Confirmed cases 4, Deaths 0

Malta, Confirmed cases 4, Deaths 0

North Macedonia, Confirmed cases 3, Deaths 0

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Cyprus, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Andorra, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Ukraine, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Monaco, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Serbia, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Moldova, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Armenia, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Holy See, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Liechtenstein, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Lithuania, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

CORONAVIRUS AND THE WORLD
   
Region: Asia     

China, Confirmed cases 80879, Deaths 3139

South Korea, Confirmed cases 7513, Deaths 54

Iran, Confirmed cases 7161, Deaths 237

Japan, Confirmed cases 514, Deaths 9

Singapore, Confirmed cases 160, Deaths 0

Malaysia, Confirmed cases 117, Deaths 0

Bahrain, Confirmed cases 109, Deaths 0

Kuwait, Confirmed cases 65, Deaths 0

Iraq, Confirmed cases 61, Deaths 6

United Arab Emirates, Confirmed cases 59, Deaths 0

Thailand, Confirmed cases 50, Deaths 1

Taiwan, Confirmed cases 45, Deaths 1

India, Confirmed cases 44, Deaths 0

Lebanon, Confirmed cases 41, Deaths 0

Israel, Confirmed cases 39, Deaths 0

Philippines, Confirmed cases 35, Deaths   1

Vietnam, Confirmed cases 31, Deaths 0

Palestine, Confirmed cases 20, Deaths 0

Qatar, Confirmed cases 18, Deaths 0

Oman, Confirmed cases 18, Deaths 0

Pakistan, Confirmed cases 16, Deaths 0

Saudi Arabia Confirmed cases 15, Deaths   0

Indonesia, Confirmed cases 6, Deaths 0

Maldives, Confirmed cases 4, Deaths 0

Afghanistan, Confirmed cases 4, Deaths 0

Bangladesh, Confirmed cases 3, Deaths 0

Cambodia, Confirmed cases 2, Deaths 0

Brunei Darussalam, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Jordan, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Mongolia, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Bhutan, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Nepal, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

Sri Lanka, Confirmed cases 1, Deaths 0

She added: "Iraq and Afghanistan - that's two of the countries you don't want the virus in, healthcare is barely existent after decades of war and it's not safe for healthcare workers to travel there.

"I think we are teetering on the balance of a pandemic, in the next week or two we're likely to see it pop up in lots places and if it's on several different continents then we'd be approaching a pandemic."

Officials now say the WHO will not formally "declare" a pandemic for the new coronavirus, though the term may still be used "colloquially".

In 2009, the organisation was criticised when it declared swine flu a pandemic.

It based the decision on criteria it no longer uses.

The virus did spread around the world - but it proved to be relatively mild, leading some to argue the organisation had been too hasty.

https://www.bbc.com/

'Barely existent' healthcare

Researchers have described the cases in Iran as the most worrying for efforts to contain the global spread of the virus and prevent it from becoming a pandemic.

The number of deaths reported in the country, 12, is far more revealing than the number of reported cases, 61.

Deaths are significant as the virus kills only a small proportion of people who are infected and it takes weeks to go from infection to death.

Dr MacDermott said: "It suggests fairly large numbers of people with minimal symptoms, or who are asymptomatic, that aren't being tested or even being identified.

"Who knows how long it has been going on?"

The country has already been linked to cases in Afghanistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Canada, and Oman.

"The virus is spreading around the world and the link with China is becoming less strong," says Prof Whitworth.

And Prof Devi Sridhar, from the University of Edinburgh, said her perspective "has definitely changed" over the past couple of days.

"This has largely been a Chinese emergency, now we are seeing it progress it South Korea, Japan, Iran and now Italy," she says. "It's a highly infectious virus and spreading very quickly."

She does not think we are in a pandemic yet and is waiting to see long chains of transmission in countries outside of China.

"We don't have the evidence to say we're in one, but I'm pretty sure we'll have the evidence in the next couple of days.

"If it's in Italy and Iran, then it can be anywhere."

Wiggle-room

"I think many people would consider the current situation a pandemic, we have ongoing transmission in multiple regions of the world," Prof Jimmy Whitworth, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC.

Some scientists were even arguing two weeks ago that we had already entered the earliest stages of a pandemic.

All this tells us there is some wiggle-room around the word.

The developments in South Korea, Italy and Iran are the reason why people are drifting closer to calling the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.

South Korea is piling on hundreds of new cases, showing how contagious the virus is.

Italy and Iran now have substantial outbreaks. There are almost certainly far more cases in these countries than have been reported - and the connection with China has not yet been established.

Coronavirus outbreak

Analysis: How close are we to a pandemic?

By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

25 February 2020


REUTERS
San Fiorano is one of the Italian towns on lockdown

Major outbreaks of the new coronavirus have suddenly been detected in both Italy and Iran in the past few days.

Meanwhile, cases in South Korea have surged making it one of the worst-affected countries.

The new coronavirus is no longer a problem just in China, with a small number of exported cases.

It has many people asking if the virus is about to become a pandemic and whether containing it is still possible?

A pandemic is a disease that is spreading in multiple countries around the world at the same time.

This virus "absolutely" has pandemic potential, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

But he added: "We are not witnessing uncontained global spread of the virus, using the word pandemic does not fit the facts."

Not everyone agrees.

Judge Andrew Napolitano

How? By manipulating Senate Republicans to bar firsthand evidence and keep it from senatorial and public scrutiny, Trump and his Senate collaborators have insulated him and future presidents from the moral and constitutional truism that no president is above the law.

Somewhere, Richard Nixon is smiling.


Andrew P. Napolitano, a former judge of the Superior Court of New Jersey, is the senior judicial analyst at Fox News Channel.


https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/

Isn't it odd that a president who clamors for exoneration, who claimed loud and long that he committed no crime and did no wrong, who insisted that his request to the Ukrainian president to seek dirt on Biden in return for American financial assistance was "perfect," would command the members of his own party to block testimony adverse to him – rather than hear it, cross-examine it, challenge it and thereby obtain the exoneration on the merits that he seeks?

Do innocent people behave this way?

If Trump really believes he did not commit any crimes and any impeachable offenses, why would he orchestrate blocking evidence? And who – having taken an oath to do "impartial justice" – would close their eyes to the truth? How could such a marathon of speeches possibly be considered a trial?

Trump will luxuriate in his victory. But the personal victory for him is a legal assault on the Constitution. The president has taken an oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. Instead, he has trashed it.

At the same time, two signal events occurred in the impeachment trial. The first was an argument by Trump's lawyers that every president seeking reelection believes his victory will be in the national interest and thus all presidential efforts toward that victory are constitutional and lawful.

This morally bankrupt, intellectually dishonest argument – which effectively resuscitates from history's graveyard President Richard Nixon's logic that "when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal" because the president is above the law – must have resonated with Senate Republican leaders.

The leaders coerced their Senate Republican colleagues into embracing the view that – since the president did not want Bolton to testify or White House emails to be revealed – they must bar all witnesses and documents.

The second signal event was shameful. It was the 51 to 49 Senate vote to bar witnesses and documents from the trial.

The favor Trump sought was an announcement by the Ukrainian government of the commencement of an investigation of Trump's potential presidential foe, former Vice President Joe Biden.

While the Senate was hearing House prosecution managers argue their case, and Trump's lawyers challenged those arguments, The New York Times revealed that John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, had authored an as yet unpublished book demonstrating that the House case against Trump was true.

True because, unlike the senators who shut their eyes and ears at Trump's trial, Bolton saw for himself the presidential tit-for-tat machinations that the House had alleged and, if proven, were criminal and impeachable.

The Times also revealed the existence of 24 emails sent by Trump aides manifesting indisputably his lawless behavior. But the emails are secret.

The abuse allegations address Trump's solicitation of assistance for his reelection campaign from a foreign government by holding up the release of $391 million in military aid to the same foreign government. These funds were congressionally appropriated and ordered to be paid by legislation that Trump had signed into law.

Federal law prohibits such solicitation as criminal and prohibits government officials from seeking personal favors in return for performing their governmental duties. The latter is bribery.

Because the solicitation that Trump committed was a crime against the government, it is among those referred to when the Constitution was written as a "high" crime. High crimes are a constitutional basis for impeachment, along with bribery and treason.

The evidence that Trump did this is overwhelming and beyond a reasonable doubt, and no one with firsthand knowledge denied it. Numerous government officials recounted that the presidential leverage of $391 million in U.S. assistance for a personal political favor did occur and the government's own watchdog concluded that it was indisputably unlawful.

And in its wake is a Congress ceding power to the presidency, almost as if the states had ratified a constitutional amendment redefining the impeachment language to permit a president to engage in high crimes and misdemeanors so long as he believes that they are in the national interest and so long as his party has an iron-clad grip on the Senate.

How could presidential crimes be in the national interest? Here is the backstory.

When the House of Representatives voted in favor of two articles of impeachment against Trump, it characterized his lawlessness as contempt of Congress and an abuse of power.

The contempt of Congress consisted of Trump's orders to subordinates to disregard congressional subpoenas. Both Republican- and Democratic-controlled Houses of Representatives have deemed such presidential instructions in an impeachment inquiry as impeachable per se.

OPINION
06 February 2020

Judge Andrew Napolitano: Despite his impeachment trial acquittal, Trump clearly guilty of a high crime

By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano | Creators Syndicate

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." – George Orwell, "1984"

The Senate impeachment trial of President Trump ended not with a bang but a whimper. What different outcome could one expect from a trial without so much as a single witness, a single document, any cross-examination or a defendant respectful enough to show up?

Law students are taught early on that a trial is not a grudge match or an ordeal; it is a search for the truth. Trial lawyers know that cross-examination is the most effective truth-testing tool available to them.

But the search for the truth requires witnesses, and when the command from Senate Republican leaders came down that there shall be no witnesses, the truth-telling mission of Trump's trial was radically transformed into a steamroller of political power.

a really great day, indeed!

kalooy sa napkin.

POOCH PROTECTION A dog wears a paper cup on its nose on a street in Beijing. In virus-hit Wuhan, pet owners unable to return to their homes are appealing to strangers via social media to ensure left-behind animals are looked after. —AFP

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/

ANTONINE PLAGUE (165 AD)
Death Toll: 5 million
Cause: Unknown

Also known as the Plague of Galen, the Antonine Plague was an ancient pandemic that affected Asia Minor, Egypt, Greece, and Italy and is thought to have been either Smallpox or Measles, though the true cause is still unknown. This unknown disease was brought back to Rome by soldiers returning from Mesopotamia around 165AD; unknowingly, they had spread a disease that would end up killing over 5 million people and decimating the Roman army.


Johannes Lingelbach,Dutch Golden Age painter, 1625 - 1700


-text from https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/
-photos from various sources

PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN (541-542)
Death Toll: 25 million
Cause: Bubonic Plague

Thought to have killed perhaps half the population of Europe, the Plague of Justinian was an outbreak of the bubonic plague that afflicted the Byzantine Empire and Mediterranean port cities, killing up to 25 million people in its year-long reign of terror. Generally regarded as the first recorded incident of the Bubonic Plague, the Plague of Justinian left its mark on the world, killing up to a quarter of the population of the Eastern Mediterranean and devastating the city of Constantinople, where at its height it was killing an estimated 5,000 people per day and eventually resulting in the deaths of 40% of the city's population.


https://www.preceden.com/

THE BLACK DEATH (1346-1353)
Death Toll: 75 – 200 million
Cause: Bubonic Plague

From 1346 to 1353 an outbreak of the Plague ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with an estimated death toll between 75 and 200 million people. Thought to have originated in Asia, the Plague most likely jumped continents via the fleas living on the rats that so frequently lived aboard merchant ships. Ports being major urban centers at the time, were the perfect breeding ground for the rats and fleas, and thus the insidious bacterium flourished, devastating three continents in its wake.


Artwork shows people praying for relief from the bubonic plague, circa 1350
CREDIT: HULTON ARCHIVE/GETTY

THIRD CHOLERA PANDEMIC (1852–1860)
Death Toll: 1 million
Cause: Cholera

Generally considered the most deadly of the seven cholera pandemics, the third major outbreak of Cholera in the 19th century lasted from 1852 to 1860. Like the first and second pandemics, the Third Cholera Pandemic originated in India, spreading from the Ganges River Delta before tearing through Asia, Europe, North America, and Africa and ending the lives of over a million people. British physician John Snow, while working in a poor area of London, tracked cases of cholera and eventually succeeded in identifying contaminated water as the means of transmission for the disease. Unfortunately, the same year as his discovery (1854) went down as the worst year of the pandemic, in which 23,000 people died in Great Britain.


"All cholera is to blame. 1848 "- Pavel Fedotov
http://rnk-concept.ru/

FLU PANDEMIC (1889-1890)
Death Toll: 1 million
Cause: Influenza

Originally the "Asiatic Flu" or "Russian Flu" as it was called, this strain was thought to be an outbreak of the Influenza A virus subtype H2N2, though recent discoveries have instead found the cause to be the Influenza A virus subtype H3N8. The first cases were observed in May 1889 in three separate and distant locations, Bukhara in Central Asia (Turkestan), Athabasca in northwestern Canada, and Greenland. Rapid population growth of the 19th century, specifically in urban areas, only helped the flu spread, and before long the outbreak had spread across the globe. Though it was the first true epidemic in the era of bacteriology and much was learned from it. In the end, the 1889-1890 Flu Pandemic claimed the lives of over a million individuals.


When flu goes pandemic, it can be devastating
National Museum of Health and Medicine/SPL

SIXTH CHOLERA PANDEMIC (1910-1911)
Death Toll: 800,000+
Cause: Cholera

Like its five previous incarnations, the Sixth Cholera Pandemic originated in India where it killed over 800,000, before spreading to the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe, and Russia. The Sixth Cholera Pandemic was also the source of the last American outbreak of Cholera (1910–1911). American health authorities, having learned from the past, quickly sought to isolate the infected, and in the end, only 11 deaths occurred in the U.S. By 1923 Cholera cases had been cut down dramatically, although it was still a constant in India.


Robert Koch (third from the right) on a cholera research expedition in Egypt in 1884, one year after he identified V. cholerae.

FLU PANDEMIC (1918)
Death Toll: 20 -50 million
Cause: Influenza

Between 1918 and 1920 a disturbingly deadly outbreak of influenza tore across the globe, infecting over a third of the world's population and ending the lives of 20 – 50 million people. Of the 500 million people infected in the 1918 pandemic, the mortality rate was estimated at 10% to 20%, with up to 25 million deaths in the first 25 weeks alone. What separated the 1918 flu pandemic from other influenza outbreaks was the victims; where influenza had always previously only killed juveniles and the elderly or already weakened patients, it had begun striking down hardy and completely healthy young adults while leaving children and those with weaker immune systems still alive.


Policemen stand in a street in Seattle, Washington, wearing protective masks made by the Seattle Chapter of the Red Cross, during the influenza epidemic in 1918. #National Archives

ASIAN FLU (1956-1958)
Death Toll: 2 million
Cause: Influenza

Asian Flu was a pandemic outbreak of Influenza A of the H2N2 subtype, that originated in China in 1956 and lasted until 1958. In its two-year spree, Asian Flu traveled from the Chinese province of Guizhou to Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United States. Estimates for the death toll of the Asian Flu vary depending on the source, but the World Health Organization places the final tally at approximately 2 million deaths, 69,800 of those in the US alone.


Asian flu in Sweden (1957), Wikimedia Commons

FLU PANDEMIC (1968)
Death Toll: 1 million
Cause: Influenza

A category 2 Flu pandemic sometimes referred to as "the Hong Kong Flu," the 1968 flu pandemic was caused by the H3N2 strain of the Influenza A virus, a genetic offshoot of the H2N2 subtype. From the first reported case on July 13, 1968 in Hong Kong, it took only 17 days before outbreaks of the virus were reported in Singapore and Vietnam, and within three months had spread to the Philippines, India, Australia, Europe, and the United States. While the 1968 pandemic had a comparatively low mortality rate (.5%) it still resulted in the deaths of more than a million people, including 500,000 residents of Hong Kong, approximately 15% of its population at the time.


https://www.geni.com/

HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC (AT ITS PEAK, 2005-2012)
Death Toll: 36 million
Cause: HIV/AIDS

First identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, HIV/AIDS has truly proven itself as a global pandemic, killing more than 36 million people since 1981. Currently, there are between 31 and 35 million people living with HIV, the vast majority of those are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 5% of the population is infected, roughly 21 million people. As awareness has grown, new treatments have been developed that make HIV far more manageable, and many of those infected go on to lead productive lives. Between 2005 and 2012 the annual global deaths from HIV/AIDS dropped from 2.2 million to 1.6 million.


AWARENESS: World Aids Day
Image: FLE

OUTBREAK: 10 OF THE WORST PANDEMICS IN HISTORY

BY STAFF

Scientists and medical researchers have for years have differed over the exact definition of a pandemic (is it a pandemic, or an epidemic), but one thing everyone agrees on is that the word describes the widespread occurrence of disease, in excess of what might normally be expected in a geographical region.



Cholera, bubonic plague, smallpox, and influenza are some of the most brutal killers in human history. And outbreaks of these diseases across international borders, are properly defined as pandemic, especially smallpox, which throughout history, has killed between 300-500 million people in its 12,000-year existence.

A final note: The most recent outbreak of the Ebola virus, which has killed thousands of people, is still confined to West Africa. It may someday be pandemic, but for now, it is considered an epidemic — and is therefore not included on this list.

TO DOs

Before a Pandemic

#Store a two week supply of water and food.

#Periodically check your regular prescription drugs to ensure a continuous supply in your home.

#Have any nonprescription drugs and other health supplies on hand, including pain relievers, stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins.

#Get copies and maintain electronic versions of health records from doctors, hospitals, pharmacies and other sources and store them, for personal reference.

#Get help accessing electronic help records.

#Talk with family members and loved ones about how they would be cared for if they got sick, or what will be needed to care for them in your home.


During a Pandemic

Limit the Spread of Germs and Prevent Infection

#Avoid close contact with people who are sick.

#When you are sick, keep your distance from others to protect them from getting sick too.

#Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing. It may prevent those around you from getting sick.

#Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs.

#Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth.

#Practice other good health habits. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.

https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

A Global Action Plan

An nCoV pandemic would require a great many measures from governments, the World Health Organization, other international organizations, medical and public health professionals, industry, and the public. The priorities above are just some of those measures—and alarmism is not among them.

The virus may still be contained before it spreads widely around the world, and all useful efforts toward that goal should continue. And even if nCoV does spread widely, it may eventually prove to be so mild that it comes to resemble other common respiratory diseases, obviating the need for continued extraordinary steps.

Yet the world cannot afford to presume these best-case scenarios. This new virus could prove to be both uncontainable and to cause a serious or lethal disease for many across the globe. Governments need to come to grips with this risk and act accordingly. If that worst-case outcome fails to materialize, their work will still have been right and worthwhile, as an insurance against this crisis and as preparation for the next one. If these measures turn out to be necessary, however, then the earlier we start, the more valuable our efforts will be.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/

In order to find new cases and treat them, medical professionals will need to quickly identify people with nCoV, which requires a reliable diagnostic test. Fortunately, an accurate test already exists, but the number of labs capable of conducting it is limited, creating delays that will only get longer as the case count rises. Governments should fund a major global effort to manufacture rapid diagnostic kits and distribute them to countries around the world.


Medical staff in a new ward for potential coronavirus patients at a hospital in Amman, Jordan, January 2020
Muhammad Hamed / Reuters

Once patients are identified, hospitals must stand ready to care for them, a task that requires immediate preparation. If an nCoV pandemic occurs, hospitals could receive high numbers of patients, many requiring intensive care. Past coronavirus epidemics have spread widely within hospitals and infected health-care workers. Hospitals should prepare for this risk by strengthening their infection control procedures, making sure their workers have the right training and maintaining a reliable supply of masks, gowns, and gloves. Such preparation is harder than it sounds: only a small number of countries produce these essential materials and supply them to the world, so international planning to keep supply chains functioning will be paramount.

Governments and public health authorities, too, will shoulder significant burdens, not least in communicating with the public in moments of crisis. Authorities will need to say what they know, what they don't know, and when they will know it. They should be accurate and not withhold information, whether the news is good or bad. Public trust is essential to controlling an epidemic, for a simple reason: trust will determine whether the public listens to what authorities advise, such as suspending social gatherings, getting diagnosed quickly, seeking care at certain locations, and agreeing to be isolated while contagious. To such ends, confidence in government action and advice will be crucial. Governments will also have to partner with traditional and social media to help distribute factual information and minimize hoaxes and conspiracies.

Next Steps

An nCoV pandemic would require a strong and sustained response by governments and the international community. Developing a vaccine is a top priority, and a number of countries, companies, and international organizations have already started this work. An effective nCoV vaccine could slow the spread and lessen the impact of the disease dramatically, but vaccine development normally takes a long time. Assuming that everything goes right, an nCoV vaccine could take around a year to develop, according to leading experts in the field. That timeline would already be record-breaking in a new outbreak, but governments, international organizations, and philanthropies should make every available effort to accelerate it by coordinating and giving support to any and all serious vaccine candidates. Contenders might come from universities or biotech and pharmaceutical companies—nobody knows where an effective vaccine will appear first. Money should not be a limiting factor.


Once a vaccine is developed, it will need to be produced on a large scale at different sites around the world. To disperse the manufacturing in this way would be unusual, as a vaccine is normally made in one location. But the WHO, other international organizations, and private-sector logistics companies could more quickly distribute the vaccine if it is produced in multiple locations. Moreover, any one country producing the vaccine will face strong domestic pressure to vaccinate its own people before sharing any of it.

While work on a vaccine is underway, researchers should look for medicines that could help treat nCoV, including antivirals, a class of drugs that fight a virus's ability to replicate. Existing antivirals—some experimental, others for known human viruses such as the flu and HIV—might have some value in combating nCoV. They should rapidly be tested for their utility. Therapies that rely on patient injection of antibodies have proved successful in treating SARS in humans and animals; researchers might have success in developing similar treatments for humans with nCoV. Conducting the necessary trials for new treatments during an active outbreak is a challenge—so much so that medical professionals long considered it too difficult—but the response to an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2018 and 2019 showed that new therapies can be tested and proven even in the middle of an epidemic.

Knowns and Unknowns

Assessing the risks of nCoV will require data and time. Among the most crucial indicators in any epidemic is the fatality rate: the share of the infected who die from the disease. The statistics on diagnosed nCoV cases available as of today would suggest a fatality rate of around two percent. (For comparison, SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, had a fatality rate of ten percent when it broke out in 2002 and 2003, while seasonal flu has a fatality rate of about 0.01 percent.) But that fatality rate will change. At the start of a new outbreak, the most serious cases of illness and death are the easiest to spot and are thus recorded first. As more cases come to light, including many milder ones, the fatality rate is likely to go down, perhaps substantially. In an optimistic scenario, nCoV will have a lethality closer to seasonal flu than to SARS—but it is too early to know. As of now, older adults appear to be most at risk, with very few recognized cases in children.


Another critical factor is the rate at which the virus spreads. The rapid rise in cases in China suggests that nCoV is transmitted efficiently from human to human, although scientific details about the patterns of its spread among most of the infected are not yet fully available to the WHO or governments other than China. In past outbreaks of respiratory disease, the rate of spread has sometimes slowed over time, probably because people became more aware of the risks and took steps to protect themselves (washing their hands, covering their coughs, staying home if sick, canceling large gatherings, and so on). And as more people fall ill, recover, and become immune, fewer people will remain susceptible. But whether nCoV will follow that path or will instead continue to spread widely and quickly, scientists cannot now accurately judge. SARS was contained within about seven months, but each year's seasonal flu circulates globally until the next year's strain replaces it. So far, the control measures that China has taken have not seemed to slow nCoV down. And although the virus has not evolved substantially over the course of this outbreak, its genome could change over time, perhaps affecting its lethality or capacity to spread. 

Some steps should help slow the disease's international spread in the short term. A number of airlines, for instance, have reduced or canceled service to China, and new arrivals from the country are being screened for the disease at many airports around the world. Within China, steps to isolate patients and protect health-care workers from contagion will continue to be vital no matter what. But given nCoV's rapid rise and spread so far, even these measures may not suffice to stop it. Planning for that outcome is an urgent necessity, even as containment efforts continue.

How to Prepare for a Coronavirus Pandemic

The Worst-Case Scenario Isn't Inevitable, But It Can't Be Ignored

By Tom Inglesby
January 31, 2020


A police officer at a roadblock in Jiujiang, China, January 2020
Thomas Peter / Reuters

When the first reports of a coronavirus outbreak hit the airwaves in early January, several dozen people had already caught the disease in or around the Chinese city of Wuhan. In the weeks since, the virus, nCoV, has spread quickly and the number of infections has grown by the day, even as Wuhan and other Chinese cities isolated large numbers of patients and quarantined some 50 million residents. At the latest count (as of Friday morning), there have been 213 deaths in China out of a total of 9,776 confirmed cases, and the virus has spread to more than 20 countries. On Thursday, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern."

The epidemic is still in its early days, and its defining characteristics will take time to understand. The scale of nCoV's ultimate impact will depend on just how contagious it reveals itself to be and how lethal it is in those who fall ill—properties that cannot be precisely determined at this stage. The efforts underway to contain the disease in China and elsewhere could prove effective in the weeks ahead, and they should be fully supported. Yet there is a clear possibility that nCoV may not be contained in time to prevent a large global outbreak. Countries should start preparing for that prospect now.

Transmission dead ends

By contrast, many cases may not spread. To get an average R0 of under 4, the super-spreaders must be balanced by cases with very low R0. So individual transmissions, which are harder to spot, may also be dead ends for the virus, which hasn't yet adapted to humans and is mutating slowly.

"Contrast that with something like flu, where everyone is spreading and any case can spark an epidemic," he says. "Super-spreader events suggest this can be controlled."

Unfortunately, the only controls we have, until a vaccine is developed, are spotting and quarantining infectious people – and that only works, as it did for SARS if the virus cannot spread before people have symptoms. This week Chinese authorities stated that this virus can do that, but there is little evidence.

Fisman is skeptical. But, he says, "it's a game-changer if true".

https://www.newscientist.com/article/

Death rate still unknown

Other epidemic modelers suspect that a large number of cases have been missed. Leung told journalists this week that there are probably 25,000 sick and another 19,000 incubating the virus just in Wuhan, the origin of the outbreak. By comparison, MERS has caused only 2499 cases since it emerged in 2012, and SARS sickened 8000 in its global rampage in 2003.

SARS killed 11 percent of cases, and so far the Wuhan virus has killed 2.3 percent, but most people are still in the midst of infection –  96 percent of people with the virus haven't yet either died or recovered. Leung's team estimates that the death rate could be as high as 14 percent.

Fisman notes that in several cases one infected person has transmitted the virus to far more than two people – one infected 14, many of them health workers. Such "super-spreader" events are typical of both SARS and MERS, said Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London earlier this week.

"It means scary events happen, with large clusters of cases," says Fisman. "But these are likely to attract attention and a public health response", with everyone exposed quarantined.

Case numbers underestimated

Officially confirmed cases of the virus climbed to 5974 cases today, in 31 of China's 33 provinces, up from 291 in three provinces a week ago. But that is likely to be a massive underestimate.

Several research groups have used computer modeling to calculate a factor called the R0, the average number of people who catch the virus from each infected person, at between two and four. Data from clusters of cases also makes it possible to calculate the "generation" time that it takes an infected person to start transmitting the virus at eight days.

But plugging those numbers into standard epidemic models reveals that something doesn't fit, says David Fisman at the University of Toronto in Canada. "Cases, R0 or generation time have to be wrong," he says.

He thinks case numbers are too low because it took doctors time to learn to diagnose the disease. He suspects that the explosive rise in cases of recent days is mostly due to improved case finding and diagnosis. Moreover, people with milder symptoms who don't go to the hospital and get tested may still add to the epidemic by transmitting the virus.

Is there a possibility for the coronavirus to cause a pandemic?


New coronavirus looks set to cause a pandemic – how do we control it?

HEALTH 29 January 2020
By Debora MacKenzie


The new coronavirus, as imaged by an electron microscope
Zhu et al/NEJM © 2020, Massachusetts Medical Society

The new coronavirus may be about to go global. Speaking at a press conference earlier this week, Gabriel Leung at the University of Hong Kong said that without "substantial, draconian measures limiting population mobility" – even greater than the unprecedented transportation shutdown that China has already imposed – epidemics outside China "may become inevitable".

Coronavirus facts: Listen to our podcast about the new coronavirus outbreak
It could be too late. Leung and other epidemiologists calculate that there are far more cases in China than doctors have diagnosed, and by next week there may be 200,000. Computer models suggest that, as with flu, Ebola and SARS, travel restrictions may have little impact.

One epidemiologist, however, thinks there may be hope in the variable way the virus is thought to spread, based on its close relatives SARS and MERS.

The differences between pandemic, epidemic, and endemic:

pandemic
/panˈdɛmɪk/

adjective
1. (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
synonyms: universal, global

noun
1. an outbreak of a pandemic disease

When an epidemic spreads throughout the world.


epidemic
/ɛpɪˈdɛmɪk/

adjective
1. of the nature of an epidemic
synonyms: rife, rampant, widespread

noun
1. a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community at a particular time
synonyms: outbreak, plague, scourge, infestation

An outbreak of disease that attacks many peoples at about the same time and may spread through one or several communities.


endemic
/ɛnˈdɛmɪk/

adjective
1. (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area
2. (of a plant or animal) native and restricted to a certain place

noun
1. an endemic plant or animal

A disease that exists permanently in a particular region or population.


https://tubagbohol.mikeligalig.com/english/pandemic-epidemic-endemic/

Where can I find more information about known coronaviruses?

For more information on MERS-CoV:
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov)

For More information on SARS-CoV:
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/


-from the World Health Organization Q and A
https://www.who.int/news-room/

What are the WHO's recommendations for countries?

WHO encourages all countries to enhance their surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), to carefully review any unusual patterns of SARI or pneumonia cases and to notify WHO of any suspected or confirmed case of infection with the novel coronavirus.

Countries are encouraged to continue strengthening their preparedness for health emergencies in line with the International Health Regulations (2005).

Are health workers at risk from a novel coronavirus?

Yes, they can be, as health care workers come into contact with patients more often than the general public WHO recommends that health care workers consistently apply appropriate infection prevention and control measures.

What can I do to protect myself?

Standard recommendations to reduce exposure to and transmission of a range of illnesses include maintaining basic hand and respiratory hygiene, and safe food practices and avoiding close contact, when possible, with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

Is there a treatment for a novel coronavirus?

There is no specific treatment for disease caused by a novel coronavirus. However, many of the symptoms can be treated and therefore treatment based on the patient's clinical condition. Moreover, supportive care for infected persons can be highly effective.

Is there a vaccine for a novel coronavirus?

When a disease is new, there is no vaccine until one is developed. It can take a number of years for a new vaccine to be developed.

Can coronaviruses be transmitted from person to person?

Yes, some coronaviruses can be transmitted from person to person, usually after close contact with an infected patient, for example, in a household, workplace, or health care centre.

What are the symptoms of someone infected with a coronavirus?

It depends on the virus, but common signs include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure, and even death.

Can humans become infected with a novel coronavirus of animal source?

Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans in China in 2002 and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.  As surveillance improves around the world, more coronaviruses are likely to be identified.

What is a novel coronavirus?

A novel coronavirus (CoV) is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans.

What is a coronavirus?

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are known to cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

would that i could do the same for my kitties. no, they won't stay put for such a celebration.

Eat This: Bananas


MARKO CRNOGLAVAC / EYEEM VIA GETTY IMAGES
Bananas with a touch of green can help promote healthy gut bacteria.

When you're suffering from diarrhea or vomiting, your body's potassium levels can become depleted. Potassium is an important mineral that balances the amount of water in your body and keeps your cells in tip-top shape.

Bananas to the rescue: "Try looking for bananas that are a little more green than yellow," Ghannoum suggested. Unripe bananas "have more resistant starch, which encourages the growth of good bacteria in the gut."

https://www.huffpost.com/

Eat This: White Rice

Rice is another bland food that will give your digestive tract a much-needed breather. It's full of starch and low in fiber, making it a perfect "binding" food to harden your poop following a bout of diarrhea, De Latour said. Rice is also an excellent food for easing your body back into eating solid foods again.

Eat This: Oatmeal

Besides being super bland and gentle on the stomach, oatmeal contains soluble fiber, which pulls water into the digestive tract, helping to bulk up poop and regulate how quickly food is sent through the body.

Oatmeal also contains selenium, which helps protect the body from infection, and zinc, the immune system's partner in fighting off unwelcome bacteria and viruses.

Avoid: Beans

"Sugars present in beans, called alpha-galactosidase, can irritate stomach issues, such as diarrhea, gas, and cramping," Ghannoum said. This is because the body may not synthesize enough of the necessary gas-reducing enzyme to fully digest these sugars.

Avoid: Bran

Bran is high in insoluble fiber, which doesn't dissolve or gel in water, so it has a tendency to send food through the bowels at a speedier pace — not an ideal outcome when you're already living on the throne. The same goes for granola, brown rice, and whole wheat pasta.

When You Have A Stomachache, Nausea or Diarrhea

Avoid: Dairy Foods


CRYSTAL SING / EYEEM VIA GETTY IMAGES
Put down the milk if you have a stomachache! Dairy can intensify diarrhea, bloating and abdominal pain.

Dairy foods contain lactose, which the stomach breaks down with the help of a digestive enzyme called lactase.

"In the setting of gastroenteritis with diarrhea, the lactase enzyme can become temporarily depleted due to inflammation in the lining of the gut (where the enzyme is located)," said Rabia De Latour, gastroenterologist and assistant professor of medicine at NYU Langone Health.

Eating dairy when your stomach's already feeling iffy can intensify symptoms such as diarrhea, bloating and abdominal pain.

Eat This: Honey

Not only can its soothing texture help relieve a sore, itchy throat, but "honey is a natural cough suppressant," Wellenstein said, and may be just as effective as over-the-counter methods.

Bonus: A 2013 review published in the Iran Journal of Basic Medical Science suggests that honey has antibacterial qualities that can help the body fight off pesky germs.

Eat This: Eggs

Not only are eggs super easy to swallow, but they contain both vitamin D and zinc, a dynamic duo that works with the immune system to show invading viruses and bacteria who's boss.

Plus, the protein that eggs provide gets broken down into amino acids, which are then upcycled into antibodies and other proteins that offer additional help to your immune system.

Avoid: Citrus Fruits


ANILAKKUS VIA GETTY IMAGES
While citrus fruits provide a good boost of vitamin C, their high acidity can irritate a sore throat.

Eating citrus fruits when you're sick can be tricky. On one hand, doing so can reload your body with vitamin C, as well as electrolytes like potassium, which you may be running low on.

On the other, "the acidity levels found in oranges and grapefruit may further irritate the throat," Wellenstein said, so you may want to score your vitamin C and electrolytes from other sources until your throat feels better.

When You Have A Cough or Sore Throat

Avoid: Raw Veggies

Depending on the severity of your sore throat, foods that are rough or jagged in texture (like raw vegetables) may be harder to swallow and cause further irritation, Wellenstein said. It's best to save snacking on these for when your throat is back to its regularly scheduled programming.

Eat This: Cucumbers


SEDNEVAANNA VIA GETTY IMAGES
The hydrating properties of cucumbers can help when you feel a headache coming on.

When the body is parched, it draws water from anywhere H20 is available, including the brain. The result? The brain — including the protective covering around it — shrinks, causing it to pull away from the skull and create head pain.

"Eating water-rich foods, like cucumber and watermelon, recalibrates the fluid balance in the body," Wellenstein said. "The brain fills back up with water and the headache symptoms resolve."