Death rate still unknownOther epidemic modelers suspect that a large number of cases have been missed. Leung told journalists this week that there are probably 25,000 sick and another 19,000 incubating the virus just in Wuhan, the origin of the outbreak. By comparison, MERS has caused only 2499 cases since it emerged in 2012, and SARS sickened 8000 in its global rampage in 2003.
SARS killed 11 percent of cases, and so far the Wuhan virus has killed 2.3 percent, but most people are still in the midst of infection – 96 percent of people with the virus haven’t yet either died or recovered. Leung’s team estimates that the death rate could be as high as 14 percent.
Fisman notes that in several cases one infected person has transmitted the virus to far more than two people – one infected 14, many of them health workers. Such “super-spreader” events are typical of both SARS and MERS, said Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London earlier this week.
“It means scary events happen, with large clusters of cases,” says Fisman. “But these are likely to attract attention and a public health response”, with everyone exposed quarantined.
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