TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 13
Typhoon #PaoloPH (MATMO)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 03 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.
PAOLO INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER DINAPIGUE, ISABELA.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon PAOLO was estimated based on all available data including those from Baguio, Baler, and Daet Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of San Guillermo, Isabela (16.7°N, 122.0°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 215 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 350 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 4
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 12 hours
Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
Luzon:
The extreme northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran), the southern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Palanan, Roxas, Burgos, Gamu, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, City of Cauayan, San Mateo, Alicia, Ramon, City of Santiago, Cordon, San Isidro, Echague, Angadanan, San Guillermo, Jones, San Agustin), the northern portion of Quirino (Diffun, Aglipay, Saguday, Cabarroguis, Maddela), the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Solano, Villaverde, Bagabag, Diadi, Quezon, Ambaguio, Bayombong), Mountain Province, Ifugao, the southern portion of Abra (Tubo), the northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kibungan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Sigay, San Emilio, Salcedo, Burgos, Lidlidda, Banayoyo, San Esteban, Santiago, Galimuyod, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Alilem, Tagudin, Sugpon), and the northern portion of La Union (Luna, Bangar, Balaoan, Sudipen, Santol, San Gabriel, Bacnotan, San Juan)
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The northern portion of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao), the rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the central portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Bambang, Kayapa, Aritao, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur, Santa Fe), Kalinga, the central portion of Abra (Boliney, Daguioman, Sallapadan, Bucloc, Licuan-Baay, Malibcong, Lacub, La Paz, San Juan, Lagangilang, Danglas, Lagayan, Tayum, Bangued, Langiden, Pidigan, San Quintin, Pilar, Luba, Manabo, Villaviciosa, San Isidro, Peñarrubia, Bucay, Dolores), the rest of Benguet, the rest of Ilocos Sur, and the rest of La Union
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Solana, Iguig, Tuao, Piat, Rizal, Santo Niño, Alcala, Amulung, Enrile, Baggao), the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao), the rest of Abra, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, City of Batac, Paoay, Currimao, Banna, Laoag City, San Nicolas, Sarrat, Dingras, Solsona, Marcos, Bacarra, Piddig), The northern portion of Pangasinan ( San Fabian, Sison, Pozorrubio, Umingan, San Jacinto, Laoac, Binalonan, San Nicolas, Natividad, Tayug, San Manuel, Asingan, Santa Maria, San Quintin, Dagupan City, Mangaldan, Manaoag, Bolinao, Anda, Bani, City of Alaminos, Sual, Labrador, Lingayen, Binmaley, Calasiao, Mapandan, Santa Barbara, City of Urdaneta), the central portion of Aurora (Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis), and the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Bongabon, San Jose City, Pantabangan, Rizal, Lupao)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Aurora, the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Ilocos Norte, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, Norzagaray, San Rafael, Angat), Tarlac, the northeastern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba, Mabalacat City), and the northern portion of Zambales (Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 8 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone PAOLO.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the periphery of PAOLO will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Batanes, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar
• Tomorrow (4 October): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m within 24 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. For more details, refer to Gale Warning No. 3 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to high over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela.
• Up to 6.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 5.5 m: The seaboards of northern Aurora and Ilocos Norte
• Up to 5.0 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of La Union.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes; the western seaboard of Pangasinan.
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of mainland northern Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Zambales and Camarines Norte; the remaining seaboard of Pangasinan.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboard of the rest of Quezon; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboard of Catanduanes.
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Lubang Islands; the western seaboard of Bataan.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
Coastal Inundation
There is high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Cebu, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao Island. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 6 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PAOLO is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, PAOLO will cross the landmass of Northern Luzon today, and emerge over the West Philippine Sea this afternoon or evening. It will continue moving west northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow (04 October) morning.
• PAOLO may slightly weaken while traversing the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon although maintaining typhoon category is not ruled out. Based on the intensity forecast, re-intensification is highly likely once PAOLO emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Linkback: https://tubagbohol.mikeligalig.com/index.php?topic=126394.0
