TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 16
Severe Tropical Storm #PaoloPH (MATMO)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 03 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
“PAOLO” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.
Location of Center (7:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm PAOLO was estimated based on all available data at 115 km West Northwest of Bacnotan, La Union (17.1°N, 119.4°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 35 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The western portion of Ilocos Sur (San Vicente, Santa Catalina, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa, Narvacan, Santa Maria, San Esteban, Santiago, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Tagudin) and the northwestern portion of La Union (Luna, Bangar, Balaoan, Bacnotan, San Juan, City of San Fernando)
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, City of Batac, Paoay, Currimao, Banna, Laoag City, San Nicolas, Sarrat, Dingras, Solsona, Marcos, Bacarra, Piddig), the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of La Union, the northern portion of Pangasinan ( Basista, Lingayen, Villasis, City of Alaminos, Anda, Malasiqui, San Fabian, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Burgos, Dagupan City, Binalonan, Bolinao, Aguilar, San Manuel, Sual, Asingan, Labrador, Bani, Pozorrubio, City of Urdaneta, Laoac, Mabini, San Carlos City, Manaoag, Binmaley, San Jacinto, Bugallon, Infanta, Agno, Calasiao, Santa Barbara, Dasol, Sison, San Nicolas), Abra, the western portion of Kalinga (Tinglayan, Balbalan, Lubuagan, Pasil), the western portion of Mountain Province (Besao, Tadian, Sagada, Bauko, Sadanga, Bontoc, Sabangan), the western portion of Ifugao (Hungduan, Tinoc), Benguet, and the western portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kayapa, Santa Fe)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Ilocos Norte, the rest of Pangasinan, Apayao, the rest of Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the southern portion of Batanes (Mahatao, Uyugan, Basco, Ivana, Sabtang), mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 9 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone PAOLO.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the outer rain bands of PAOLO will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar
• Tomorrow (4 October): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 12 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. For more details, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 6.0 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur
• Up to 5.0 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan.
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of La Union, Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora; the remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The western seaboard of Pangasinan.
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Zambales; the remaining seaboards of Aurora and Pangasinan.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of northern mainland Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands.
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Zambales, Camarines Norte, and Lubang Islands; the western seaboard of Bataan; the eastern seaboard of the rest of Quezon; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PAOLO is forecast to move generally west northwestward and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow (04 October) morning.
• PAOLO is forecast to re-intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
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