Aggressors rarely see themselves as such. Indeed China accuses the United States of being the driving force behind the “militarisation†of the sea. Certainly America is responding to Chinese moves. Last year it resumed naval “freedom of navigation†operations, sending warships close to disputed features. This month it sent an aircraft-carrier strike group into the sea. American naval and marine-corps commanders have been in Vietnam to explore co-operation. Worse, from China’s viewpoint, American forces have just obtained access to five Philippine bases, including an airbase on Palawan, just opposite the Spratlys. For this, China’s official news agency accused America of “muddying the waters†and “making the Asia-Pacific a second Middle Eastâ€.
China will not be deterred, confident that America is unlikely to risk a serious crisis, let alone conflict. China’s throwing its weight around in the sea erodes America’s credibility as the pre-eminent military power in the western Pacific, but does not directly threaten it. By contrast, rather than cow China, America’s enhanced military role gives it a pretext to carry on with its build-up. There is still the danger, however, of an accidental flare-up—a skirmish over illegal fishing, for example, and an ensuing escalation. Armed conflict in the South China Sea is a long way from being inevitable. But it is far from unthinkable.
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