Third, should these two confidence-building measures achieve some success, ASEAN and China could move on to negotiations to achieve significant demilitarization and denuclearization of the South China Sea, with the goal of coming up with a multilateral treaty that would be binding on all parties, including third parties like the United States. Such an agreement would, of course, necessitate abandoning EDCA on the part of the Philippines and dismantling of military structures in the South China Sea on the part of China. This agreement would be complementary to two earlier ASEAN agreements, the agreement to make ASEAN a Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality, and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Agreement. It could also be the forerunner of an East Asia-wide collective security treaty that would replace the dangerous and volatile balance of power politics that simply promotes an uncontrollable arms race.
Finally, again depending on the success of the previous confidence-building measures, ASEAN and China could begin the process of resolving claims on EEZ’s and continental shelves and discussing joint development of fisheries and other resources. Given political sensitivities, these might be de facto arrangements instead of full-blown treaties or agreements and will not necessitate China’s formally abandoning its Nine-Dash-Line claim, at least not in the short term. Face, as they say, is important, and the art of diplomacy is often the art of allowing your negotiating partner to save face while making grudging concessions.
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