He wonders how long they will survive the wind-driven waves, some as high as 30 feet, that develop far out at sea and then roll in with no landmass to stop them. Such rocky islands as Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines are surrounded by coral reefs that help break up the force of waves traveling across the ocean. But the new bases in the Spratlys don’t have that protection.
“They are in the middle of the ocean, 1,000 miles from north to the south,†Elgar said. “With these huge fetches [distances that wind blows unobstructed over water], they have got to get big waves just from the wind blowing. They are exposed out in the middle of nowhere.â€
Other ocean scientists worry about the effect of dredging and island creation on surrounding marine life. The Spratlys contain major fishing grounds for several Asian nations, and the local marine biodiversity has been on the decline for the past two decades, according to a 2013 study by Australian and Chinese scientists.
The report, which appeared in the journal Conservation Biology, found that coral cover had declined to about 20 percent (from about 60 percent) within the Spratly archipelago over the preceding 10 to 15 years. “Climate change has affected these reefs far less than coastal development, pollution, overfishing, and destructive fishing practices,†according to the report, which warned that the declines in the reefs were “unfolding as China’s research and reef-management capacity are rapidly expanding.â€
Greg Mitchell, a professor of marine ecology at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., researches Pacific reef ecosystems. He says the new Chinese dredging and installation of concrete piers are probably destroying what’s left of the local ecology.
“If the islands had been left alone, they would probably be very diverse,†Mitchell said. “But all of the fishing fleets from Asia have been there hunting everything from sea cucumbers and giant clams and sharks for fins. My guess is the biodiversity has been altered already. But now, they are burying the ecosystem and destroying it.â€
Niiler is a freelance writer based in Maryland.
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