Did he signal his intentions?In the initial aftermath, most media outlets ran with Eric Paddock’s comments that the family, mostly estranged from Stephen, had no inkling that he might commit a violent crime. This is a very familiar trope in mass shootings. What the surprise among family members or neighbors about a perpetrator “snapping†really tends to mean is that “they didn’t know what was going on in his life that led up to it,†says Dr. Russell Palarea, a Washington, DC-based threat assessment professional. In some cases that can include what experts refer to as a “triggering eventâ€â€”being fired from a job, getting served with a restraining order, or experiencing some other negative life development that can set a potentially dangerous person’s plan into motion.
A thorough investigative process is critical to understanding what happened, says Palarea: “He may have amassed his arsenal with the specific intent of carrying out this devastating attack. Or, he may have been collecting firearms as an aficionado and had no perceived grievance, motivation, or need for notoriety back then. The shift could be more recent. What’s needed is a timeline of his behaviors.â€
Forensic research shows that most mass shooters express their intentions before they strike, most often to a third party—a concept known as “leakage.†Data from Paddock’s computers and phone could shed light, as could his girlfriend of several years, Marilou Danley, a 62-year-old native of the Philippines who worked as a casino hostess. Authorities confirmed Danley was overseas when the massacre took place and returned Tuesday night to the United States to speak with investigators. (Some signs began to emerge on Tuesday that Paddock might have been abusive toward Danley; a history of domestic violence is common among mass shooters. Paddock’s two ex-wives have so far declined to talk to the press.)
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