PRESIDENT Benigno S. Aquino 3rd’s satisfaction ratings are now straddling negative territory. He is the only president in the last quarter century whose satisfaction ratings dropped in the first eight to 10 months of office.
The euphoria that carried him to a landslide victory in May 2010 is gone. He has lost the trust and confidence of a large—and growing—segment of the population. He has disappointed them. He is no longer invincible. He is vulnerable and he knows it.
Aquino’s net satisfaction ratings have dropped—precipitously. People are beginning not to like the way he handles his job. Noynoy is unique as a president. Barely a year ago, he was the most popular president in history.
Per results of the Social Weather Stations survey of March 4 to 7 (four days), Aquino’s net satisfaction rating is down 13 points, to just 51 percent—69 percent satisfied minus the 18 percent satisfied.
This 51 percent looks good, but not if you consider that the SWS survey has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percent. Add three percentage points to 51 percent and you get 54 percent. Deduct three percentage points from 51 percent and you get 48 percent.
For all practical purposes, Noynoy Aquino’s public approval rating is now in negative territory, below majority. He is skating on thin ice insofar as his job and popularity is concerned. People are beginning to be pissed off with him, and they are telling him.
The 13 percentage points is the steepest drop in a nine- to 10-month period for a sitting president starting with Corazon Aquino during whose presidency SWS began the job survey ratings for presidents.
On the other hand, the Pulse Asia survey of February 24 to March 6 (11 days) is kinder to PNoy. It said 74 percent approved of his performance, 7 percent disapproved and 18 percent were undecided. Using the SWS formula of deducting disapprove (seven) from approve (74), you have a net approval rating of 67, very high compared to the 51 (“net satisfactionâ€) of SWS but still a significant nine-percentage-point drop from 76 percent (79 approve minus three disapprove) in Pulse Asia’s October 2010 poll.
There is one explanation why Aquino’s net satisfaction rating was 51 percent in SWS and 67 percent in Pulse Asia: The People Power euphoria.
Pulse Asia began the survey at the height of the February 22 to 25 25th anniversary celebration of People Power, when many were in a party mood.
SWS conducted its survey in early March when the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa were in full swing, sparked by popular unrest over massive unemployment and lack of opportunity for the poor while their leaders wallowed in luxury.
Disturbingly, in the same February 24 to March 6 Pulse Asia survey, more Filipinos now trust (81 percent) and approve (83 percent) of Vice President Jejomar Binay’s performance than President Aquino (75 percent trust and 74 percent approval). The six percentage-point difference in trust ratings (Binay’s 81 vs. Aquino’s 75) is significant since 6 percent of 95 million (the population) is 5.7 million—the equivalent of half of the population of Metro Manila.
Back in October 2010, more Filipinos (80 percent) trusted Aquino than Binay (78 percent). In just five months, 5 percent of Filipinos (equivalent of 4.75 million) lost their trust in the President.
The May 1986, SWS survey, Cory Aquino had a net satisfaction rating of +53. In March 1987, after 10 months, she had a net satisfaction rating of +69—a huge gain of 16 percentage points.
Fidel V. Ramos had a net satisfaction rating of +66 in September 1992. In April 1993, after seven months, the retired West Point-trained general had a net satisfaction rating of +67, up one percentage point.
Joseph Estrada had a net satisfaction rating of +60 in September 1998. In June 1999, after nine months, the veteran actor turned politician, enjoyed a net satisfaction rating of +65, up five percentage points.
Gloria Arroyo had a net satisfaction rating of +24 in March 2001. By November 2001, a lapse of eight months, she enjoyed net satisfaction rating of +27, up three percentage points.
Thus, Noynoy Aquino is the only sitting president in a quarter century whose job satisfaction rating declined and the only president whose job rating didn’t rise after barely a year in office.
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