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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 11 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "ULYSSES" SLOWS DOWN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH.
 
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the severe tropical storm, the areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale-force to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions. Given the likelihood of intensification into a typhoon in the next 12 to 24 hours, TCWS #3 may be raised over Metro Manila and portions of Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and Bicol Region once “ULYSSES” is upgraded to typhoon category. In other areas, the rest of Northern Luzon will be experiencing strong breeze to gale-force winds due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
• Heavy rainfall: Between this early morning and this late afternoon, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Albay, Sorsogon, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Burias and Ticao Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Between this late afternoon and tomorrow early morning, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of Camarines Sur, and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon, and the remaining coastal areas of Camarines Sur. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar currently not under TCWS #1. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and rough seas (2.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian Islands, and the eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, Severe Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and pass over the seas north of Catanduanes between this morning and afternoon and north off Camarines Provinces between this afternoon or evening. Due to the orientation of the track forecast, these provinces may fall within the inner rainbands of this storm during the passage. The center of “ULYSSES” is forecast to make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, “ULYSSES” will cross mainland Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Central Luzon between tomorrow morning and afternoon.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours and reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall. “ULYSSES” may slightly weaken as it crosses mainland Luzon due to the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges along its projected path. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon during its traverse.

Location of eye/center:
• At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 180 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 415 km East of Infanta, Quezon (14.6°N, 125.5°E). 

Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.

Movement:
• Moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.

Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 20 km North Northeast of Infanta, Quezon (14.9°N, 121.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday morning): 355 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 116.7°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 790 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 112.6°E)
• 96 Hour (Sunday morning): 1,275 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.0°N, 108.4°E)
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

LUZON:
The southern portion of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan), the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Alfonso Castaneda), the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, San Manuel, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Tayug, Santa Maria, Balungao, Asingan, Urdaneta City, Malasiqui, Bayambang, Basista, Bautista, Alcala, Villasis, Rosales, Binalonan, Laoac, Santo Tomas), the southern portion of Zambales (Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City), Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Burias and Ticao Islands

TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

LUZON:
Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Zambales, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the rest of Masbate

VISAYAS:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

IMPACTS OF THE WIND

TCWS #2
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

TCWS #1
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.

LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2


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