MikeLigalig.com

By Will Weaver
Update #7A on Super Typhoon #Goni (#22W / TY #Rolly) - 1800 UTC 30 October 2020
...Goni continues as a Category 5 super typhoon...
...Landfall expected in Calabarzon on Sunday...
As of 1800 UTC:
Position: 15.9°N 129.9°E
Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)
Intensity [1-min]: 155 knots (280 km/h) [Category 5]
Intensity [10-min]: 115 knots (215 km/h) [Violent]
Central pressure: 915 hPa
PAGASA local name: Rolly (#RollyPH)
Goni remains an extremely impressive, yet compact, system. However, there are indications on microwave imagery that an outer eyewall is beginning to form - a sign of an imminent eyewall replacement cycle. The eye is still clear, very warm (16°C) and easily visible on conventional satellite imagery, so the eyewall replacement has not begun yet. Otherwise the CDO is solid with very cold convective cloud tops of around -75°C. The current intensity of 155 knots is unchanged and based on a Dvorak fix of T7.5 from JTWC.
There is still an uncomfortable amount of spread among the models, but they are gradually coming into agreement. Goni is expected to continue moving westward or west-southwestward for another 18 hours or so before turning back west-northwest. On this track, the center is expected to pass north of the Bicol Region before making landfalls on Polillo Island and mainland Quezon on Sunday. The latest JMA and JTWC forecast tracks take the center uncomfortably close to Manila before it moves out over the South China Sea on Monday morning. A general westward track toward Vietnam is expected during the remainder of the period, with landfall as a tropical storm expected Wednesday evening.
Goni could fluctuate up or down in intensity during the next 12 hours or so, but once the eyewall replacement cycle begins, some slow weakening is expected. The eyewall replacement is likely to result in the expansion of Goni's wind field, meaning it won't be as compact as it is now. By Saturday evening, increasing shear should further weaken the cyclone, although Goni is likely to be at or near Category 4 intensity by the time it makes landfall, and it could potentially still be a Category 2 or 3 typhoon as it passes just north of Manila (within 35 km) on Sunday evening. Disruption of the cyclone by rough terrain, strong shear, and cool northeasterly wind flow over the South China Sea should result in steady weakening once Goni is back over water.


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