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UTRECHT, The Netherlands -- Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro is someone to watch out for in the 2010 presidential elections, according to self-exiled Philippine communist leader Jose Maria Sison.

"I've been telling people to watch out for this guy. He may rate low now but it could push up overnight. This will measure the strength of Cojuangco's support," said the man who started the decades' old communist insurgency in the Philippines in an exclusive interview. (Cojuangco refers to businessman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., former crony of the late dictator President Ferdinand Marcos.)

Teodoro, whose impressive academic credentials are wowing some members of the diplomatic community, is a nephew of Cojuangco. Topping the bar exams in 1989, Teodoro holds a bachelor's degree in management of financial institutions from De La Salle University, a law degree from the University of the Philippines, and a master's degree from the Harvard Law School in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

INQUIRER.net asked Sison, who officially holds the title of chief political consultant of the National Democratic Front of the Philippines in its ongoing informal peace talks with the government, to comment on the presidential hopefuls that are already preparing their bid for the top post some two years before Election Day.

Of Vice President Noli De Castro, who is topping the surveys on who is likely to win the 2010 presidential elections, the communist leader says: "What can you expect from him? He will use demagogic, possibly populist terms like pro-poor. But he is no different from [President Gloria Macapagal-] Arroyo, he wants to enrich himself. He used to be a nobody who only wants to collect rewards."

Of Senator Loren Legarda: "She's sometimes progressive and she's not afraid to cooperate with the Left."

Of Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero: "Popular."

Of Senate President Manuel Villar: "He's a businessman who has not talked on important issues, but he has projected himself as independent of Malacañang."

Of Senator Panfilo Lacson: "He has mellowed but when in power, matindi yan (he can be extreme)."

Of Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II: "Populist. I don't know if he would be able to shake off his neo-liberal mindset."

According to him, in a multi-corner presidential contest, deposed President Joseph "Erap" Estrada's endorsement will mean a lot.

"Fifteen percent is solid Erap. And in a field of seven candidates, you only need 30 to 40 percent to win," he says.

At the same time, Sison says Ms Arroyo will try to strike a deal with her successor when she steps down from power so that she may not be prosecuted for the various anomalies that she or her husband has been accused of participating in.

"Every president takes care that her successor will not go after her," he says.

As for the role of the progressive movement in the 2010 elections, Sison says the extent of its growth will be measured by the "actual emergence of a winnable presidential candidate" either among its ranks or one it can support.

And for him, the viable candidate that the Left can support is Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno. "With some money, and perhaps a vice president who can bring in the money for the campaign, [Puno] has the correct take on social and political issues."

However, he admits that the local mass movement is "sluggish." He attributes this to the extra-judicial killings of activists, to "missing skills" among them, and the increase in "labor casualization," which results in young people taking odd jobs.

Nevertheless, he says he remains optimistic that more young activists who are "daring, articulate, and easy to deploy" will join the movement.

"Assuming that the mass movement progresses, we will have some material available in the Philippines," he says. He also hopes that some progressive activists from the 1980s and the 1990s with "patriotic and nationalistic" positions will emerge in the House of Representatives.

He supports "to some extent" the analysis of former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri (as presented by whistle-blower Rodolfo "Jun" Lozada before the Senate) that migrant labor has become the Philippines' safety valve that keeps the "social volcano" from exploding.

"It has become a significant outlet…But as the world crisis worsens, it may be adversely affected," he says.

Sison still maintains that the Philippine society is semi-colonial and semi-feudal as it was when he wrote the seminal Philippine Society and Revolution, practically the Philippine version of Mao Zedong's “The Little Red Book”, about 40 years ago.

He says the economic growth the Arroyo administration has been boasting of is brought about by debts, consumption expenses, and taxes. "There are no more agricultural lands to develop. There has been no real development, no industrialization…On a strategic level, [the Philippines has] been surviving on foreign loans, privatization and denationalization, and wage suppression for foreign investments in mines and plantations," he says.(Inquirer.net)

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