Hurricane Dorian strengthened into a Category 4 storm on Friday night with 145 mph winds, but the Saturday morning forecast shows Florida may be spared a direct hit.
The projected path by the National Hurricane Center as of its 5 a.m. forecast showed the storm strafing the northern Bahamas Sunday and Monday, but then taking a sharp right so the center of the storm doesn’t make Florida landfall.
The state’s east coast from Fort Lauderdale up to Cape Canaveral and inland to Orlando are still within the three-day cone of uncertainty, though. The five-day projection includes even more of the state, but the consensus path now has the storm headed for landfall near the South Carolina and Georgia border.
Hurricane Dorian cone of uncertainty as of 5 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019. (National Hurricane Center/National Hurricane Center)
The path has shifted several times since Thursday with projected landfalls suggesting it would slam into Florida as far south as West Palm Beach and as far north as Flagler Beach. Its path all day Friday had it targeting Orlando, but the various computer models kept shifting the path farther east.
The hurricane center said a hurricane watch may be issued for parts of Florida later today.
Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the storm’s center with tropical storm-force winds extending out 105 miles. The current forecast has the center of the storm parked off Florida’s coast still as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds near Brevard County by Tuesday morning. It is then projected to head more north skirting Florida’s coast and diminish speed, but still a dangerous Category 3 level hurricane with 125 mph winds by Wednesday morning near St. Augustine.
The state will begin to feel tropical storm-force winds, though, as early as midday Sunday with Orlando projected to feel those winds by Sunday night.
“Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur,” the NHC said.
The expected arrival of the storm is now on the tail end of Labor Day weekend as its forward speed has slowed, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday morning that is good and bad news.
“Floridians need to be prepared,” DeSantis said. “The bad news of the storm going slower is that that could potentially have some negative impacts once it reaches landfall, but you do have time before it reaches to prepare if you have not done so.”
Orlando International Airport announced it will cease commercial flight operations on at 2 a.m. Monday. Passengers should check with individual airlines for flight information and schedules.
“Hurricane Dorian has strengthened and slowed. Our plan currently is to run full operations through Sunday,” said Phil Brown, CEO of the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority in a press release. “We don’t know exactly where Dorian is going but we do know that it will have a significant impact on the entire state of Florida. So in order to allow the airport’s 25,000 employees time to secure their homes and families we feel it is prudent to cease operations in a timely fashion.”
SunRail said it was suspending service all of next week.
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer predicted there were be thousands of downed trees and localized flooding in the city if the storm is as bad as predicted. The City of Orlando also will be opening city parking garages for people to put their cars in a secure environment, although he didn’t specify a time they would open.
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said the county is prepared for whatever Dorian brings.
“It’s showtime," Demings said. "We’re ready.”
Homes in the county’s barrier islands and other flood-prone areas and residents living in manufactured or mobile homes are told to leave the area 8 a.m. Sunday, Sheriff Wayne Ivey said in a video posted to Facebook.
DeSantis also warned of power outages and said utility companies were pre-positioning workers to restore electricity for customers after Dorian passes.
The Orlando Utilities Commission has tripled its resources, with help coming from Nebraska, Michigan and Missouri, said Jenise Osani, a spokeswoman for the utility.
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody has activated the state’s price gouging hotline, giving residents a way to report businesses violating the law by charging too much for lodging and goods during Hurricane Dorian. Moody said gouging could be reported by (866) 966-7226 or online at myfloridalegal.com
The threat of winds in Orlando has prompted companies Lime and HOPR to begin removing their fleets of bicycles that are strewn across the city.
The path of the storm has coastal concerns making moves including Port Canaveral on alert and cruise lines shifting ships and changing itineraries. Also, major airlines began allowing travelers to change their reservations without a fee.
The Hurricane Center also began tracking a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that as of 2 a.m. Saturday had a 10 percent chance of tropical system formation in the next 48 hours, and 50 percent chance in the next five days. If it forms, it will be the seventh tropical depression of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. If it grows into a named storm, it would become Tropical Storm Fernand. The hurricane center was also tracking a storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico given a 10 percent chance of tropical system formation in the next 48 hours, and 20 percent chance in the next five days.
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