Domestic factors are certainly influencing Chinese foreign policy. However, it is uncertain the degree to which these pressures will dominate. Backlash from neighboring countries and the U.S. may well counterbalance Chinese military and nationalistic opinions. The Chinese “charm offensive†that won over its neighbors in the 1990’s and early 2000’s was mostly successful, until China’s forceful handling of competing territorial claims encouraged Asian states to beseech the United States to renew it focus on the region. The U.S. military and diplomatic rebalance towards Asia will likely restrict Chinese influence and military movements in the region, and is viewed by some Chinese as an attempt to contain China’s rise. This generation of Chinese leaders may therefore feel that it is more prudent to avoid further alienating regional powers and prevent hedging towards the United States.
Xi Jinping’s perspectives on the future of his country’s role in Asia and the world may remain unclear for the foreseeable future. Yet observers can be certain of this: Xi’s policies will be bounded by domestic pressures urging assertiveness and a more vocal China.
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