If that's the case, then what's the point of pushing for a code of conduct?
Why would Beijing ever agree to be tied down by arrangements that ASEAN has put forward to help keep the peace? Among them: full respect for the UN Law of the Sea, self-restraint and nonuse of force to resolve disputes.
The choice now facing the US and its Asian allies is often presented in stark terms: either back down or confront China with military force.
Yet that perspective may be overly simplistic. For a start, China has been careful to calibrate its actions so that they fall just below the threshold that might trigger an armed response. China is many years away from being able to stand up militarily to the US--and the presence of US forces in the region is still a powerful deterrent.
But also, it overlooks the pressures that are building on Beijing to find compromise solutions based on international rules and norms.
Already, the Philippines has launched a legal challenge at a UN arbitration tribunal to China's sovereignty claims over the entire South China Sea. China has so far ignored the action, but Manila calculates--with reason--that China's failure to participate will come at a considerable cost to its international reputation, particularly if it wins a favorable ruling.
And the damage to Beijing's international standing could increase if other Asian countries take similar legal action, as seems likely over time.
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