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1. The “sticker price” is not what most people will pay.

A few states have released information on what consumers can expect to pay for health coverage on the exchanges in 2014. But for nearly all exchange participants, those rates aren’t what they’ll actually be shelling out, primarily because about 48% of people now buying their own insurance will be eligible for tax credits that would offset these premiums, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation study published this week. (Subsidies will be available for people who have incomes from 100% up to 400% of the poverty level – or about $24,000 to $94,000 a year for a family of four.)

“Only the youngest, healthiest people with very high incomes in the individual market – and mostly people in this category aren’t in the individual market because they qualify for group health benefits at work – will pay more across the board in 2014,” says Karen Pollitz, senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

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2. Old coverage vs. new coverage makes it hard to compare plans.

Much of the debate over health reform is popping up in states that have estimated consumers will pay higher premiums next year than they do now. For instance, the Ohio Insurance Department said earlier this month that individual exchange plan premiums are expected to climb on average by 41% in 2014 compared to 2013, while plans for small businesses will increase by 18%.

The problem with these comparisons is that “it’s completely different coverage – the type of coverage [under Obamacare] is more valuable,” says Linda Blumberg, senior fellow at the Urban Institute. Consumers might pay more for insurance next year because they’re likely getting a richer plan, she says.

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3. Premiums on the exchanges won’t affect most consumers.

The new rates cited so far impact primarily consumers who will buy their own coverage. Employment-based health benefits remain the most common form of insurance for most Americans, and most large employers already provide coverage to workers that meets the law’s new requirements. More than half of Americans – 55% – had employment-based insurance in 2011, and among the employed population aged 18 to 64, over two-thirds (68.2%) had insurance through their own employer or another person’s employer, according to the Census Bureau.

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“While it is not surprising that rates would vary among states and regions within a large state, it is surprising to see the large variance of rates within the same regional market at the same metal level. All plans in the same metal level within a state are required to offer the same ten essential benefits,” the authors write.

“We are beginning to see plan variations within metal tiers, though they are more uniform with respect to benefits and cost sharing,” says Pollitz, who adds there are likely many reasons for the variation. One is the provider network you have: Plans may offer the same benefits but one might have a narrower network of physicians than another, therefore limiting a consumer’s choice of doctor or hospital, Pollitz says.

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