NEW YORK - The recession will end this summer, if it hasn't already, a research group's measure of employment, stocks and other indicators suggests.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading indicators rose 0.6 percent in July, its fourth straight gain. The measure is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months.
The indicators suggest the recession has bottomed out, and growth in economic activity will begin soon. Gross domestic product, which has shrunk for four straight quarters, could grow this quarter, said Ken Goldstein, the Conference Board's economist.
"Looks like the recession ended in June," Tim Quinlan, economic analyst for Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a research note. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially calls the beginning and end of economic cycles, has in the past set an end-date to recessions after several consecutive months of gains in the leading indicators, he said.
But even when the downturn is over, "it's still going to feel like a recession to the average consumer, the average business," Goldstein said.
The U.S. likely saw economic growth early in the current July-September quarter as the Cash for Clunkers program boosted auto sales, said Jennifer Lee, economist with BMO Capital Markets.
An accompanying index meant to measure the current state of the business cycle was flat in July, after dropping for eight straight months, the Conference Board said. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate rose to 3 percent through July, up from 2.1 percent through June. That's the highest growth rate since mid-2004, the Conference Board said.
However, July's 0.6 percent growth was slower than the 0.8 percent rise in July and 1.2 percent gain in May. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the indicators to rise 0.7 percent last month.
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the index increased in July, including employment data and stock prices.
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