Author Topic: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right? (Read 851 times)

islander · « **on:** December 07, 2014, 12:13:53 PM »

IN THE EYE OF A STORM | How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?

InterAksyon
Jose Bimbo F. Santos
06 December 2014

Â© Provided by InterAksyon

MANILA - The facts now bear out the earlier prediction by PAGASA that Typhoon Hagupit will barrel westward through Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon, even as some weather agencies earlier said the typhoon may likely recurve northward and merely sideswipe Luzon as it goes straight to Japan. So how did PAGASA get it right?

To be accurate, PAGASA did mention the likelihood that Hagupit will not make landfall, a possibility then contingent on the weakening of a high-pressure area in Northern Luzon. But as early as last Wednesday, PAGASA emphasized that the storm was more likely to hit the landmass in Eastern Visayas.

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islander · « **Reply #1 on:** December 07, 2014, 12:14:33 PM »

PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez said their prediction models gave more weight to the Philippines' historical climate patterns.

"We also saw that scenario of the cyclone recurving and moving away instead of making landfall, but we also looked at the climatology and the historical data," Perez told InterAksyon.com.

"We ask ourselves, 'When we have the same weather system at this time of the year, what usually happens?" So we consider not only the meteorological data, but also the climatological data, and historical data," Perez added.

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islander · « **Reply #2 on:** December 07, 2014, 12:15:27 PM »

Climatology and meteorology both refer to the scientific study of weather patterns, but the latter focuses more on short-term conditions while the former focuses on long-term trends.

In an earlier press release, the Department of Science and Technology also emphasized that PAGASA's predictions actually become more accurate as storms approach the country as the weather disturbance also becomes nearer the agency's sensors and observatory equipment.

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islander · « **Reply #3 on:** December 07, 2014, 12:17:41 PM »

PAGASA has accountability

Perez said further that unlike other foreign weather agencies, PAGASA has more accountability in their predictions.

"At the end of the day, PAGASA has accountability to Filipinos," Perez said.

PAGASA weather forecaster Jori Loiz also echoed the sentiment.

"May responsibilidad kasi kami at tinatayuan namin 'yun. 'Yung iba naman, kahit magkamali, walang mangyayari sa kanila. Kami pag nagkamali kami, yari kami," Loiz said.

Loiz added that it also affects them when Filipinos believe more the predictions of foreign weather agencies.

"Ang sakit sa amin nun, eh [It somehow pains us]," Loiz admitted.

http://www.msn.com/

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hofelina · « **Reply #4 on:** December 08, 2014, 04:13:37 AM »

it is a matter of life and properties, weather forecasting is no fortunetelling. It is expected that they work professionally.

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Author Topic: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right? (Read 851 times)

islander

How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?

islander

Re: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?

islander

Re: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?

islander

Re: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?

hofelina

Re: How did PAGASA get 'Hagupit' right?