It is widely expected that Raul will formally be named to the top spot at the April congress, and analysts say the choice of second secretary will say a lot about how the brothers envision a transition to an eventual post-Castro era.
"They could send a startling message by picking somebody young or out of the party, or somebody whose name is not easily recognized," said Robert Pastor, a professor at American University and longtime adviser on hemispheric affairs. "Most people would guess, however, that they will pick ... an octogenarian who fought in the revolution."
While the government historically has focused on the day-to-day running of the country, the party is tasked with guiding the Cuban people on their path to communism. In practice, no major policy can be passed without the party first agreeing.
There are a scattering of young leaders including Lazaro Exposito, the fast-charging Communist Party chief in Santiago de Cuba, and Lazara Lopez Acea, the 47-year-old top party leader for Havana, as well as Bruno Rodriguez, the 53-year-old foreign minister, and Marino Murillo, the 50-year-old economy minister.
But none appears ready to step into such a high-profile role, and neither Fidel nor Raul has ever indicated publicly that one is favored over the others. Since taking office, Raul has also elevated a number of generals to high-ranking jobs at state-run entities, but they are technocrats largely unknown to the public.
Some young politicians might be reluctant to step into such a senior position, conscious that the career path of those who have flown too high, too fast, has usually been short. In 2009, Raul suddenly fired two of the island's rising political stars: Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, then 43, and Vice President Carlos Lage, who at 57 was relatively youthful given the advanced ages of most government officials. Both were captured on a secret video tape drinking whiskey and joking about the country's old leaders.
"The truth is Raul's experience with young leaders hasn't been very good these past few years, so I think he will name a historic figure," said Eduardo Bueno, a professor of international relations at Mexico's Iberoamerican University. "That said, if the younger generation could take a step forward it would be a great signal, including for Raul, that things are finally moving and the country's long paralysis is over."
Linkback:
https://tubagbohol.mikeligalig.com/index.php?topic=39363.0