MikeLigalig.com

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/
S. GOPIKRISHNA WARRIER


The world imagined a ‘hiatus’ in global warming. Mired in economic crisis, that was simply what it wanted to hear.
In the past 15 years, the world has not warmed in the same scale as it has been doing since 1951, read headlines across the world in the first week of September. There is a “hiatus” in global warming, media reports stated, quoting a draft of an upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

A source in the know of the drafting process at the IPCC had leaked the draft of the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group 1 to Assessment Report 5. This draft contained the assertion on the hiatus.

It read: “Global mean surface temperature trends exhibit substantial decadal variability despite the robust multi-decadal warming since 1901. The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998-2012; 0.05 °C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (1951-2012; 0.12°C per decade).”

However, when experts and policymakers met in Stockholm, Sweden, from September 23-26 and released the approved Summary for Policymakers after reviewing the draft line-by-line, there was a technical disclaimer.

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THE GOOD NEWS

The IPCC’s previous document — Assessment Report 4 — was released in 2007, and in the six years, the world’s political economy has changed.

The US went through an economic slowdown and is just recovering, whereas much of Europe is still under economic distress. Pressure to cut down emissions at this stage can affect this recovery process, and thus the news of the hiatus in global warming was a welcome relief.

Even in the emergent economy of India, news of the hiatus provided relief. With the international climate change negotiations working to develop a new instrument to replace the Kyoto Protocol by 2020, the Indian negotiators are under pressure to announce caps to the emission of greenhouse gases that cause global warming.

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MYTH OR REALITY?

Assessment reports from IPCC have always created intense global interest, discussions and debate. There are two reasons for this. One, the subject of whether global climate is changing is one of intense discussion and the IPCC is the only world body that has the competence to declare scientific opinion on whether this is a myth or reality. Two, IPCC’s assessment reports take many years in preparation and publication, and therefore the world waits to see what the latest in climate science it unravels. The draft gave a peek into what the world body was thinking even before the meeting for the approval process had taken place.

In the excitement of reporting this insight, it was forgotten that the draft was only the first one of a series of documents that the IPCC would be producing over the next year. Working Group 1, which looks at the physical science basis of climate change, is one of the three such groups. Working Group 2 will deal with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group 3 will look into mitigation of climate change. The Synthesis Report of the Assessment Report 5 will be released only in October 2014.

Even if one were to discount conspiracy theories, the premature release of the draft has raised confusion on a subject that is inherently difficult to communicate. There are still many uncertainties related to the science of climate change, and much understanding is still evolving in the scientific world.

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