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Messages - islander

#9701

How old is the Shroud of Turin?

In 1989 it looked for a moment as though the link between the Turin Shroud and the burial of Christ was finally broken. Three independent teams of scientists had been given scraps of the linen, which they analysed using radiocarbon dating - a technique that uses the decay of a natural, radioactive form of carbon to figure out how long ago a once-living sample ceased to be alive (and thus in this case when the cloth was made from plant fibres). The verdict: the shroud dates from between about 1260 and 1390. It was a medieval item.

But almost at once, objections were raised. Some argued that the samples tested had come from later additions to the original cloth. Others said that the radiocarbon "clock" had been reset by a fire in the 16th Century that damaged parts of the shroud, or that the findings were distorted by the more recent growth of bacterial or fungal "biofilms" on the threads. The authors of the 1989 paper have discounted those possibilities, but the controversy won't die down. In 2013 Giulio Fanti described dating studies on the shroud using a non-standard method involving spectroscopy (absorption of light of different colours), which he says place the age instead between 300 BC and 400 AD: perfect for true believers.
#9702

4. It was made by some kind of energy release

According to an international team of scientists and other interested folk called the Yahoo Shroud Science Group, hypotheses about the genesis of the shroud "involving the Resurrection of Jesus of Nazareth cannot be rejected". Among them, the group members write, "are hypotheses correlated to an energy source coming from the enveloped or wrapped Man, [and] others correlated to surface electrostatic discharges caused by an electric field". Since these hypotheses appear to invoke processes unknown to science, which presumably occur during a return from the dead, it's technically true that science can't disprove them - nor really say anything about them at all.

Some, however, are not deterred by that. Italian chemist Giulio Fanti of the University of Padua has proposed that the image might have been burnt into the upper layers of the cloth by a burst of "radiant energy" - bright light, ultraviolet light, X-rays or streams of fundamental particles - emanating from the body itself. Fanti cites the account of Christ's Transfiguration, witnessed by Peter, John and James and recounted in Luke 9:29: "As he was praying, the appearance of his face changed, and his clothes became as bright as a flash of lightning." This is, to put it mildly, rather circumstantial evidence. But Fanti suggests we might at least test whether artificial sources of such radiation can produce a similar result on linen.

According to Raymond Rogers, all kinds of pseudoscientific theories have been put forward that invoke some mysterious radiation, which not only made the image itself but distorted the radiocarbon dating. In general they start from the notion that the shroud must be genuine and work backwards from that goal, he said. Little has changed in the decade and more since Rogers made this complaint. But still it has to be said that the piece of cloth Pope Francis will venerate is genuinely and stubbornly perplexing.

#9703

3. It's a photograph

Secondo Pia's photograph showed that the image on the cloth is a negative: dark where it should be bright. This deepens the mystery, and Pia himself casually suggested that the shroud could have been made by some primitive kind of photography. That idea has been inventively pursued by South African art historian Nicholas Allen, who argues that it could in principle have been achieved using materials and knowledge available to medieval scholars many centuries before genuine photography was invented. The key to the idea is the light-sensitive compound silver nitrate, the stuff that darkened the emulsion of the first true photographic plates in the 19th Century, as light transformed the silver salt into tiny black particles of silver metal.

This substance does seem to have been known in the Middle Ages, Allen says: it was described in the writings of the 8th Century Arabic alchemist, Jabir ibn Hayyan, and also by the German Dominican Albertus Magnus in the 13th Century. It could have been coated on to the cloth in a darkened chamber and exposed to sunlight through a lens - made of quartz not glass, since the silver is in fact darkened by ultraviolet light, which glass absorbs but quartz does not. Allen has made replicas of a shroud this way using model figurines. But how the image stays on the cloth when the silver is removed, and how mediaeval forgers gathered all this sophisticated knowledge about optics and chemistry without there being any trace in surviving documents poses problems for the idea. So do various issues about the exact shape and contrast of an image made this way. For most Turin Shroud theorists, Allen's idea is a triumph of ingenuity over plausibility.
#9704



2. It was made by a natural chemical process

If the coloured imprint comes from the darkening of the cellulose fibres of the cloth, what might have caused it? One of the doyens of scientific testing of the shroud, Raymond Rogers of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, argued in 2002 that a simple chemical transformation could do the job. He suggested that even very moderate heat - perhaps 40C (104F) or so, a temperature that post-mortem physicians told him a dead body could briefly attain if the person died from hyperthermia or dehydration - could be enough to discolour the sugary carbohydrate compounds that might be found on the surface of cotton fibres. It doesn't take a miracle, Rogers insisted. This is a reassuringly mundane idea, but there is little evidence for it in this particular circumstance - it's not as if it happens all the time on funeral shrouds.

Another idea is that the discoloration of the fibres was caused by a chemical reaction with some substance that emanated from the body. The French biologist, Paul Vignon, proposed in the early 1900s that this substance might have been ammonia, produced by the breakdown of urea in sweat. That won't work, though: the image would be too blurry. In 1982, biophysicist John DeSalvo suggested instead that the substance could be lactic acid from sweat. This compound is one of those responsible for so-called Volckringer images of plant leaves, left for years between the pages of a book: substances are exuded from the leaf and react with paper fibres to produce a dark, negative image.
#9705

1. It's a painting



If this were true, it should be possible to identify the pigments used by chemical analysis, just as conservators can do for the paintings of Old Masters. But the Sturp team found no evidence of any pigments or dyes on the cloth in sufficient amounts to explain the image. Nor are there any signs of it being rendered in brush strokes. In fact the image on the linen is barely visible to the naked eye, and wasn't identified at all until 1898, when it became apparent in the negative image of a photograph taken by Secondo Pia, an amateur Italian photographer.

The faint coloration of the flax fibres isn't caused by any darker substance being laid on top or infused into them - it's the very material of the fibres themselves that has darkened. And in contrast to most dyeing or painting methods, the colouring cannot be dissolved, bleached or altered by most standard chemical agents. The Sturp group asserted that the image is the real form of a "scourged, crucified man… not the product of an artist". There are genuine bloodstains on the cloth, and we even know the blood group (AB, if you're interested). There are traces of human DNA too, although it is badly degraded.

That didn't prevent the American independent chemical and microscopy consultant, Walter McCrone, who collaborated with the Sturp team, from asserting that the red stains attributed to blood were in fact very tiny particles of the red pigment iron oxide, or red ochre. Like just about every other aspect of the shroud, McCrone's evidence is disputed; few now credit it. Another idea is that the image is a kind of rubbing made from a bas-relief statue, or perhaps imprinted by singeing the fabric while it lay on top of such a bas-relief - but the physical and chemical features of the image don't support this.
#9706

There's no shortage of hypotheses. Some suggest that the image came about through natural processes; some impute considerable ingenuity to medieval forgers of relics; others invoke wondrous physical processes associated with the Resurrection. But do any have any merit?
#9707

You'll notice that this says nothing about its authenticity. The Catholic Church takes no official position on that, stating only that it is a matter for scientific investigation. Ever since radiocarbon dating in 1989 proclaimed the 14ft by 4ft piece of linen to be roughly 700 years old, the Church has avoided claiming that it is anything more than an "icon" of Christian devotion.

But regardless of the continuing arguments about its age (summarised in the box near the bottom of this page) the Shroud of Turin is a deeply puzzling object. Studies in 1978 by an international team of experts - the Shroud of Turin Research Project (Sturp) - delivered no clear explanation of how the cloth came to bear the faint imprint of a bearded man apparently bearing the wounds of crucifixion.
#9708

How did the Turin Shroud get its image?

19 June 2015


Faithfuls look at the Holy Shroud in the Cathedral of Turin during the opening day of the exposition April 19, 2015

On Sunday, Pope Francis will "venerate" the famous Shroud of Turin, which is thought by some to be the burial wrapping of Jesus Christ - and by others to be a medieval fake. Whatever it is, it's a mystery how the cloth came to bear the image of a man. Science writer Philip Ball discusses the theories.

In a carefully worded announcement, the Archbishop of Turin says that the Pope "confirms the devotion to the shroud that millions of pilgrims recognise as a sign of the mystery of the passion and death of the Lord".
#9709

According to former Nature editor Philip Ball, "it's fair to say that, despite the seemingly definitive tests in 1988, the status of the Shroud of Turin is murkier than ever. Not least, the nature of the image and how it was fixed on the cloth remain deeply puzzling". The shroud continues to be one of the most studied and controversial objects in human history. (wikipedia)


A late 19th-century photograph of the Chapel of the Shroud
#9710

In 1978 a detailed examination carried out by a team of American scientists called the Shroud of Turin Research Project (STURP) found no reliable evidence of how the image was produced. In 1988 a radiocarbon dating test was performed on small samples of the shroud. The laboratories at the University of Oxford, the University of Arizona, and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology concurred that the samples they tested dated from the Middle Ages, between 1260 and 1390. The validity and the interpretation of the 1988 tests are still contested by some statisticians, chemists and historians.


Phase contrast microscopic view of image-bearing fiber from the Shroud of Turin. The carbohydrate layer is visible along top edge. The lower-right edge shows that coating is missing. The coating can be scraped off or removed with adhesive or diimide.

According to professor Christopher Ramsey of the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit in 2011, "There are various hypotheses as to why the dates might not be correct, but none of them stack up." (wikipedia)
#9711

The Catholic Church has neither formally endorsed nor rejected the shroud, but in 1958 Pope Pius XII approved of the image in association with the devotion to the Holy Face of Jesus. More recently, Pope Francis and his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI have both described the Shroud of Turin as "an icon" and Pope Saint John Paul II called the Shroud "a mirror of the Gospel".(wikipedia)


Full length negatives of the shroud of Turin
#9712

A variety of scientific theories regarding the shroud have since been proposed, based on disciplines ranging from chemistry to biology and medical forensics to optical image analysis. The Shroud of Turin is respected by Christians of several traditions, including Baptists, Catholics, Lutherans, Methodists, Orthodox, Pentecostals, and Presbyterians. (wikipedia)


Station biologique de Roscoff in Brittany, France where the first scientific analysis of the photographs of the shroud was performed by Yves Delage in 1902.
#9713

The origins of the shroud and its image are the subject of intense debate among theologians, historians and researchers. Scientific and popular publications have presented diverse arguments for both authenticity and possible methods of forgery. (wikipedia)


A poster advertising the 1898 exhibition of the shroud in Turin. Secondo Pia's photograph was taken a few weeks too late to be included in the poster. The image on the poster includes a painted face, not obtained from Pia's photograph.
#9714

The image is much clearer in black-and-white negative than in its natural sepia color. The negative image was first observed in 1898 on the reverse photographic plate of amateur photographer Secondo Pia, who was allowed to photograph it while it was being exhibited in the Turin Cathedral.

The shroud is kept in the royal chapel of the Cathedral of Saint John the Baptist in Turin, northern Italy. (wikipedia)

#9715

The Shroud of Turin or Turin Shroud (Italian: Sindone di Torino) is a length of linen cloth bearing the image of a man who appears to have suffered physical trauma in a manner consistent with crucifixion. There is no consensus yet on how the image was created. It is believed by some to be the burial shroud of Jesus of Nazareth, despite radiocarbon dating tests from 1988 dating it to the Medieval period. (wikipedia)


The Shroud of Turin: modern photo of the face, positive left, digitally processed image right.
#9716

Papal predecessor Benedict XVI has described the cloth as an icon "written with the blood" of a crucified man, but didn't dive into scientific questions. Skeptics say the linen bearing the figure of a crucified man is medieval forgery.

Turin Archbishop Cesare Nosiglia, has called the shroud both "reality and deep mystery" to which science hasn't given "concrete answers."

In 1978, a group of respected American scientists and scholars calling themselves the Shroud of Turin Research Project (or STURP) were given 120 hours to subject the Shroud to a "CS"-like forensic study. Working 24 hours a day, they set out to discover how the image was made, and if it was a fake. They couldn't.

The Vatican has tiptoed around just what the cloth is, calling it a powerful symbol of Christ's suffering while making no claim to its authenticity.

http://www.cbsnews.com/
#9717

Pope Francis to view iconic Shroud of Turin

CBS/AP November 5, 2014


Archbishop of Turin Cesare Nosiglia, second left, watches the Shroud of Turin, on display for a special TV appearance Saturday, March 30, 2013.  POOL,AP PHOTO/ALESSANDRO DI MARCO

VATICAN CITY -- The Shroud of Turin, the burial cloth some believe covered Jesus, will go back on public display next year.

Pope Francis said Wednesday he will go to that northern Italian city June 21 to view that 14-foot-long cloth, which is kept in a climate-controlled case in Turin's cathedral.

As during the last display in 2010, reservations are required for the April 19-June 24 viewing but there is no charge.
#9718
Anonymous Diary Blog / Re: Arguing with an idiot
June 21, 2015, 01:44:22 PM

What is the origin of the phrase “do not argue with idiots”? Please cite some credible references.

From googling around, I found these three variations. One came from the Bible but I couldn’t find any credible source for the other two.

Don’t argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. â€"Greg King

Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. â€"Mark Twain

Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him. â€"Proverbs 26:4 (King James version)


As you can see, only the last one is easily verifiable.

http://english.stackexchange.com/
#9719
Anonymous Diary Blog / Re: Arguing with an idiot
June 21, 2015, 01:40:03 PM

“My needs are simple and few, thought Valentine. Food. Clothing. A comfortable place to sleep. And no idiots.

But of course a world with no idiots would be lonely. If she herself were even allowed there.”


― Orson Scott Card, Ender in Exile
#9720
Quotable Quotes / Re: Quote For The Day
June 21, 2015, 01:36:14 PM

#9721
Anonymous Diary Blog / Re: Arguing with an idiot
June 21, 2015, 01:31:33 PM

luckily i'm a dove. ;D
#9722
Family & Parenting / Re: Happy Father's Day
June 21, 2015, 01:30:32 PM

#9724
Quote from: islander on June 21, 2015, 01:01:52 PM

Splitting everything literally in half is not as uncommon in divorces as you might think.

In 2008, a 76-year-old Serbian farmer, married for 45 years, used a grinding machine to cut in half his farm tools and machines to comply with a court ruling to share the household goods with his ex. He was still thinking about how to split the cow, reports said.

Fri Apr 4, 2008

Farmer cuts property in two to give to ex-wife

A Serb farmer used a grinding machine to cut in half his farm tools and machines to comply with a court ruling that he must share all his property with his ex-wife, local media reported on Thursday.

Branko Zivkov, 76, told Belgrade daily Kurir he had been ready to give his wife Vukadinka her equal share of everything earned during their 45-year marriage, but was furious at being asked to give away half his farming equipment.

Instead, he bought a grinder and cut in two all his tools, including large items such as cattle scales, a harrow and a sowing machine.

"I still haven't decided how to split the cow," he told the newspaper. "She should just say what she wants -- the part with the horns or the part with the tail."

(Reporting by Ljilja Cvekic, Editing by Ellie Tzortzi)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/04/
#9725

own this, at your own risk (and joy):

#9726



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHLg_9DGbSg
für laura

Splitting everything literally in half is not as uncommon in divorces as you might think.

In 2008, a 76-year-old Serbian farmer, married for 45 years, used a grinding machine to cut in half his farm tools and machines to comply with a court ruling to share the household goods with his ex. He was still thinking about how to split the cow, reports said.

http://rt.com/news/
#9727





It’s not clear whether the divorce story is true or just a hoax. The video has scored over 3.3 million views since its publication on Tuesday, so one way or another, “Der Juli” seems to have made his point.
#9728



One of the items is half a motorcycle helmet, which, “Der Juli” says, offers good visibility on the right side. The semi-protective gear is on the head of a tanned man, who appears to be in his 40s, his eyes painted over to make recognition difficult. Presumably, it’s the eponymous seller himself.
#9729

some things the german 'der.juli' cut in half:



The halves “Der Juli” considers rightfully his are currently for sale on eBay. A total of 16 items are offered. Buyers in need of half a teddy bear, half a bicycle or half a vinyl record of R.E.M. album “Automatic for the People” should keep in mind that shipping is only available in Germany.
#9730

The couple also divided their property into four sections: for themselves and their two children.

Because the couple side-stepped the provincial courts when they parted ways, their unusual resolution could pose a problem later, said Prak Phin, a lawyer for Legal Support for Child and Women in the province.

"This was a not a legal divorce. It never went to the court," he said. "If they have disagreements in the future, they will not have a legal (recourse)."

The man moved his part of the house to his parents' property, May Titthara said. He lives with his parents, while the wife continues to reside in her precariously perched, upright half.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/
#9731

The husband and wife had been living together in the house in a village in the Prey Veng province of southern Cambodia, roughly 50 miles (80 km) from the capital.

The couple would not talk to the newspaper, but the village chief told May Titthara that the husband was angry because his wife wouldn't tend to him when he was ill.

Last week, the husband and his friends moved his belongings to one side of the house -- and sawed and chiseled it off, said the reporter, who interviewed the village chief and neighbors.
#9732

he's not alone.


A house divided: Estranged couple's home cut in half

October 9, 2008
By Saeed Ahmed
CNN


(CNN) -- A Cambodian couple who separated after 40 years of marriage may have taken things too literally when it came to splitting their assets:

The husband cut the house in two.


A couple who separated after 40 years of marriage split their house in two -- literally.

"It is the strangest thing I've ever seen," said May Titthara, who wrote about the case for The Phnom Penh Post, an English-language newspaper in the Cambodian capital. "People there never saw this happen in a divorce. It is very interesting for them."
#9733
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 06:08:17 PM

The best advice that Thucydides’ work offers is clear, do not let emotions such as hubris, fear and honor drag you into a hegemonic war, and if war does occur, do not let these same emotions cloud your judgment if there is a chance for peace. This is a hard lesson to learn, but unlike the mechanistic vision of Thucydides’ Trap it accounts for human agency and shows a path towards peaceful co-existence rather than letting passions lead the way.

Leon Whyte is a second year master candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University as well as the Senior Editor for the Current Affairs section of the Fletcher Security Review. His research interests include transnational security and U.S. alliances in East Asia.

http://thediplomat.com/
#9734
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 06:06:54 PM

This strong belief of a special place in the world can make a country sensitive to insult, intended or otherwise, such as in 1999 when NATO aircraft bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during Operation Allied Force in Bosnia, killing three Chinese citizens. The United States claimed that the bombing was an accident, but few Chinese accepted this explanation, and more than 100,000 Chinese protested across the country, including attacking the American embassy and consulates. Contributing to the anti-American outrage was Chinese state media insisting the bombing was not an accident. Anti-Chinese sentiment is not as widespread or as vocal in the United States, but it is common for American politicians and pundits to portray the rise of China as a risk to America’s place in the world.
#9735
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 06:05:49 PM

If the United States and China fight a war, it will occur because of the same fear and honor that led the Spartans to start the Peloponnesian War, or the Athenians to continue it. Prominent Chinese scholar Ye Zicheng expressed this sense of honor when he wrote, “If China does not become a world power, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be incomplete. Only when it becomes a world power can we say that the total rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has been achieved.” American exceptionalism, the conviction that the United States holds a unique place and role in human history, provides a counterpart to Chinese nationalism, and is widespread enough to be a central plank of the Republican Party’s platform.
#9736
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 06:05:22 PM

In the seventh year of the Peloponnesian War, at the battle of Pylos, the Athenians won a major victory over Sparta. Because of their loss, Sparta sent envoys to Athens offer a peace treaty. The Spartan envoys enjoined the Athenians to “treat their gains as precarious,” and advised that “if great enmities are ever to be really settled, we think it will be, not by the system of revenge and military success… but when the more fortunate combatant waives his privileges and, guided by gentler feelings, conquers his rival in generosity and accords peace on more moderate conditions than expected.” However, the Athenians, led by Cleon, who Thucydides described as the most violent man in Athens, accused the Spartans of not having right intentions, and made further demands on Sparta for a return of territories that Athens had previously ceded to Sparta before the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War, resulting in a continuation of the war.
#9737
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:52:34 PM

In Thucydides’ history, human emotion made conflict inevitable, and at several points where peace was possible, emotion propelled it forward. In the beginning, there is a set of speeches in Sparta debating the possibility of going to war with Athens. Archidamus, the Spartan king, tells the Spartan people not to underestimate the power of Athens and urged that Sparta “must not be hurried into deciding in a day’s brief space a question which concerns many lives and fortunes and many cities, and in which honor is deeply involved â€" but we must decide calmly.” However, Sthenelaidas, a Spartan ephor, advocated, “Vote, therefore, Spartans, for war, as the honor of Sparta demands.” The Spartans followed Sthenelaidas, which led to a war of honor and fear against the Athenians.
#9738
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:51:53 PM

The Real Thucydides Trap

The popular expression only captures half of the true meaning of Thucydides’ work.

By Leon Whyte

Professor Graham Allison of the Harvard Kennedy School has popularized the phrase “Thucydides trap,” to explain the likelihood of conflict between a rising power and a currently dominant one. This is based on the famous quote from Thucydides: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.” This usage has even spread to Chinese President Xi Jinping who said “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap â€" destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations.” However, those like Graham Allison who talk about a Thucydides trap only capture half the meaning of the History of The Peloponnesian War. The true trap is countries going into, and continuing, war clouded by passions like fear, hubris and honor.
#9739
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:37:48 PM

In light of the risks of such an outcome, leaders in both China and the US must begin talking to each other much more candidly about likely confrontations and flash points. Even more difficult and painful, both must begin making substantial adjustments to accommodate the irreducible requirements of the other.

The writer is Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University

http://www.ft.com/
#9740
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:37:21 PM

To recognise powerful structural factors is not to argue that leaders are prisoners of the iron laws of history. It is rather to help us appreciate the magnitude of the challenge. If leaders in China and the US perform no better than their predecessors in classical Greece, or Europe at the beginning of the 20th century, historians of the 21st century will cite Thucydides in explaining the catastrophe that follows. The fact that war would be devastating for both nations is relevant but not decisive. Recall the first world war, in which all the combatants lost what they treasured most.
#9741
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:36:51 PM

As the US emerged as the dominant power in the western hemisphere in about 1890, how did it behave? Future president Theodore Roosevelt personified a nation supremely confident that the next 100 years would be an American century. In the years before the first world war the US liberated Cuba, threatened Britain and Germany with war to force them to accept US positions on disputes in Venezuela and Canada, backed an insurrection that split Columbia to create a new state of Panama â€" which immediately gave the US concessions to build the Panama Canal â€" and attempted to overthrow the government of Mexico, which was supported by the UK and financed by London bankers. In the half century that followed, US military forces intervened in “our hemisphere” on more than 30 separate occasions to settle economic or territorial disputes on terms favourable to Americans, or oust leaders we judged unacceptable.
#9742
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:35:55 PM

Uncomfortable as China’s rise is for the US, there is nothing unnatural about an increasingly powerful China demanding more say and greater sway in relations among nations. Americans, particularly those who lecture Chinese about being “more like us”, should reflect on our own history.
#9743
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:35:30 PM

Never has a nation moved so far, so fast, up the international rankings on all dimensions of power. In a generation, a state whose gross domestic product was smaller than Spain’s has become the second-largest economy in the world.

If we were betting on the basis of history, the answer to the question about Thucydides’s trap appears obvious. In 11 of 15 cases since 1500 where a rising power emerged to challenge a ruling power, war occurred. Think about Germany after unification as it overtook Britain as Europe’s largest economy. In 1914 and in 1939, its aggression and the UK’s response produced world wars.
#9744
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:34:57 PM

Thucydides wrote of these events: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Note the two crucial variables: rise and fear.

The rapid emergence of any new power disturbs the status quo. In the 21st century, as Harvard University’s Commission on American National Interests has observed about China, “a diva of such proportions cannot enter the stage without effect”.
#9745
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:31:04 PM

Classical Athens was the centre of civilisation. Philosophy, history, drama, architecture, democracy â€" all beyond anything previously imagined. This dramatic rise shocked Sparta, the established land power on the Peloponnese. Fear compelled its leaders to respond. Threat and counter-threat produced competition, then confrontation and finally conflict. At the end of 30 years of war, both states had been destroyed.
#9746
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:30:36 PM

The defining question about global order in the decades ahead will be: can China and the US escape Thucydides’s trap? The historian’s metaphor reminds us of the dangers two parties face when a rising power rivals a ruling power â€" as Athens did in 5th century BC and Germany did at the end of the 19th century. Most such challenges have ended in war. Peaceful cases required huge adjustments in the attitudes and actions of the governments and the societies of both countries involved.
#9747
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 05:29:11 PM

August 21, 2012

Thucydides’s trap has been sprung in the Pacific

By Graham Allison

China and America are the Athens and Sparta of today, says Graham Allison

China’s increasingly aggressive posture towards the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea is less important in itself than as a sign of things to come. For six decades after the second world war, an American “Pax Pacifica” has provided the security and economic framework within which Asian countries have produced the most rapid economic growth in history. However, having emerged as a great power that will overtake the US in the next decade to become the largest economy in the world, it is not surprising that China will demand revisions to the rules established by others.
#9748
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 04:37:30 PM

He has also been called the father of the school of political realism, which views the political behavior of individuals and the subsequent outcome of relations between states as ultimately mediated by and constructed upon the emotions of fear and self-interest. His text is still studied at both universities and advanced military colleges worldwide. The Melian dialogue remains a seminal work of international relations theory while Pericles' Funeral Oration is widely studied in political theory, history, and the classics.

More generally, Thucydides showed an interest in developing an understanding of human nature to explain behaviour in such crises as plague, massacres, as in that of the Melians, and civil war. (wikipedia)
#9749
History / Re: The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 04:36:17 PM

Thucydides (c. 460 â€" c. 400 BC) was an Athenian historian, political philosopher and general. His History of the Peloponnesian War recounts the 5th century BC war between Sparta and Athens to the year 411 BC. Thucydides has been dubbed the father of "scientific history" because of his strict standards of evidence-gathering and analysis of cause and effect without reference to intervention by the gods, as outlined in his introduction to his work.

#9750
History / The Thucydides Trap
June 19, 2015, 04:34:14 PM

Thucydides Trap

Thucydides Trap* is where a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war.

Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta." (extracted from wikipedia)

*The phrase was coined by Graham Tillett Allison, Jr., an American political scientist
#9751
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:16:48 PM



credit: 27 Yoga Poses Demonstrated by Animals, http://www.dailydawdle.com/2012/04/27
#9752
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

#9753
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:16:15 PM

#9754
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:12:33 PM

#9755
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:12:11 PM

#9756
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:11:47 PM

#9757
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:11:21 PM

#9758
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:10:57 PM

#9759
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:10:29 PM

#9760
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:07:48 PM

#9761
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:07:26 PM

#9762
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:07:03 PM

#9763
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:06:33 PM

#9764
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:06:10 PM

#9765
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:02:20 PM

#9766
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:01:55 PM

#9767
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:01:28 PM

#9768
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 04:01:07 PM

#9769
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:55:05 PM

#9770
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:54:04 PM

#9771
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:53:39 PM

#9772
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:53:13 PM

#9773
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:52:35 PM

#9774
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:41:41 PM

#9775
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:41:20 PM

#9776
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:40:54 PM

#9777
General Topic / Re: International Yoga Day
June 19, 2015, 03:37:49 PM

easy.  can do what you can...

#9778
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 19, 2015, 01:44:06 PM
Quote from: hubag bohol on June 18, 2015, 04:58:54 PM
Brayt pood. Peace and quiet go together, yes. But I suppose not in YOUR personal comfort room.

;D

hehehe, i thought i heard the rapid fire of a machine gun from your personal comfort room... ssshhh, just between us...
#9779
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:36:05 PM

#9780
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:33:38 PM

#9781

manglagot bitaw ko aning superbalita (tabloid cebuano-visayan version of  sunstar) sa ilang pagka-supersensational.  mora hinoon silag naghudyaka nga naay nangaangol.  they not only make mountains out of molehills, they also make earthquakes out of vertigos.
#9782
Sports and Fitness / Re: 2015 Southeast Asian Games
June 17, 2015, 05:20:39 PM

nasubo lang ko nga nalupig tag vietnam.  nalupig na ta sa rice production bisag sa pinas sila nagtuon sa IRRI.  lupigon gihapon ta sa harvest of medals.  quo vadis, pilipinas?  maayo ra ba tag bugno ug politiko?
#9783
Photos Unlimited / Re: Flying fox
June 17, 2015, 05:17:58 PM

bad batgirl.
#9784
Basketball | NBA-PBA / Re: Easy dunks
June 17, 2015, 05:17:10 PM

kaila ka asa anay tblanders?  better still, kahibawo kag nag-unsa mo ana ni bugsay?
#9785
Jokes and Humor / Re: Facebook idiots
June 17, 2015, 05:15:46 PM
#9786

thus will you become a millionaire if you bet on 666 swertes, bai hubs.
#9787
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:12:22 PM

brayt gyod ka, dear.  but why not rename this as hubag's personal comfort room where there's real peace?
#9788
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:08:37 PM

What is genocide?

Genocide is any number of acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, according to the United Nations. Others include political and social groups in the definition, making genocide more broadly the annihilation of difference. Genocidal campaigns have become more frequent since World War I. Modern industrial weapons have made mass killings easier to commit.

How many genocides have occurred since World War I?

Dozens. The most devastating include those in the Soviet Union, where approximately 20 million were killed during Stalin's Great Terror (1930s); Nazi Germany, where 6 million Jews were killed in concentration camps along with 5 million or more Gypsies, Jehovah's Witnesses, and other "enemies of the German state" (1937-1945); Cambodia, where 1.7 million of the country's 7 million people were killed as a result of the actions of the Khmer Rouge (1975-1979); Iraq, where 50,000 Kurds were killed during the ethnic cleansing of Anfal in 1987; Bosnia, where 310,000 Muslims were killed (1992-1995); and Rwanda, where more than 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus were slaughtered over ten weeks in 1994.

Excerpted from WHAT EVERY PERSON SHOULD KNOW ABOUT WAR by CHRIS HEDGES Copyright © 2003 by Chris Hedges

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/06/books/
#9789
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:06:00 PM

How can war affect women?

Women often take on larger economic roles in wartime. They must find ways to compensate for their husband's military deployment or unemployment. Those in war zones must search for food, water, medicine, and fuel despite shortages. Some women in war zones are forced into prostitution to provide for their family. Famine and stress cause increased stillbirth and early infant death. AIDS risk increases for many women in war, from prostitution, husbands who return from military duty with HIV, or rape.
#9790
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:05:10 PM

How many child soldiers are there?

More than 300,000 worldwide. Soldiers are sometimes recruited at age 10 and younger. The youngest carry heavy packs, or sweep roads with brooms and branches to test for landmines. When children are hostile, the opposing army is more likely to consider every civilian a potential enemy.

Why do children join armies?

They are often forced to. Some are given alcohol or drugs, or exposed to atrocities, to desensitize them to violence. Some join to help feed or protect their families. Some are offered up by their parents in exchange for protection. Children can be fearless because they lack a clear concept of death.
#9791
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:04:31 PM

What are the consequences of becoming a refugee?

Refugees have very high mortality rates, due primarily to malnutrition and infectious disease. Rwandan refugees in Zaire in 1994 had a death rate 25 to 50 times higher than prewar Rwandans. Iraqi Kurdish refugees in Turkey in 1991 had a death rate 18 times higher than usual.

How does war affect children?

More than 2 million children were killed in wars during the 1990s. Three times that number were disabled or seriously injured. Twenty million children were displaced from their homes in 2001. Many were forced into prostitution. A large percentage of those will contract AIDS. Children born to mothers who are raped or forced into prostitution often become outcasts.
#9792
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 05:00:51 PM

How many refugees are there?

In 2001, 40 million people were displaced from their homes because of armed conflict or human rights violations. Refugees have been a concern throughout the twentieth century. Five million Europeans were uprooted from 1919 to 1939. World War II displaced 40 million non-Germans in Europe, and 13 million Germans were expelled from countries in Eastern Europe. Approximately 2.5 million of the 4.4 million people in Bosnia and Herzegovina were driven from their homes during that region's war in the early 1990s. More than 2 million Rwandans left their country in 1994. In 2001, 200,000 people were driven from Afghanistan to Pakistan. In early 2003, 45,000 Liberians were displaced from their homes.
#9793
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:58:54 PM

How dangerous is war for civilians?

Very dangerous. Between 1900 and 1990, 43 million soldiers died in wars. During the same period, 62 million civilians were killed. More than 34 million civilians died in World War II. One million died in North Korea. Hundreds of thousands were killed in South Korea, and 200,000 to 400,000 in Vietnam. In the wars of the 1990s, civilian deaths constituted between 75 and 90 percent of all war deaths.

What is the civilian experience in war?

They are shot, bombed, raped, starved, and driven from their homes. During World War II, 135,000 civilians died in two days in the firebombing of Dresden. A week later, in Pforzheim, Germany, 17,800 people were killed in 22 minutes. In Russia, after the three-year battle of Leningrad, only 600,000 civilians remained in a city that had held a population of 2.5 million. One million were evacuated, 100,000 were conscripted into the Red Army, and 800,000 died. In April 2003, during the Iraqi War, half of the 1.3 million civilians in Basra, Iraq, were trapped for days without food and water in temperatures in excess of 100 degrees.
#9794
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:58:15 PM

How many of the weapons U.S. companies export go to developing countries?

Approximately half. From 1994 to 2001, the United States exported $131 billion in arms, with $59 billion going to developing nations. The United States is the leading exporter to developing countries, with Russia and France second and third.

How do American arms exports affect the American people?

Arms exports are an important source of American jobs and help maintain U.S. military manufacturing capacity. They also have some negative consequences. When American weapons are used in a conflict-for example, by Israel against the Palestinians-America is also blamed for the attacks. U.S. forces regularly find themselves up against sophisticated weaponry of American origin, which is harder to defend against.
#9795
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:57:42 PM

How many weapons does the U.S. military industry export each year?

In 2001, U.S. arms manufacturers exported $9.7 billion in weapons worldwide. The United Kingdom was second in international exports with $4 billion. In addition, the United States made new sales of $12.1 billion. Russia was second with $5.8 billion. The United States is the world's largest arms manufacturer, supplying almost half of all the arms sold on the world market.

What kinds of arms does the United States export?

In 2002, U.S. manufacturers planned to export arms including Cobra and Apache attack helicopters, Black Hawk helicopters, KC-135A Stratotanker air-to-air tanker/transport aircraft, Hellfire and Hellfire II air-to-surface antiarmor missiles, Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, TOW 2A and 2B missiles, M-16 rifles, M-60 machine guns, grenade launchers, MK-82 (500 lb.) and MK-83 (1,000 lb.) bombs, Sentinel radar systems, GBU12 Paveway series laser-guided bombs, standard assault amphibious personnel vehicles, assault amphibious command vehicles, and CBU-97 sensor fused weapon antitank cluster bombs.
#9796
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:56:38 PM

How has the size of the industry changed over time?

The 2003 level of 3.5 percent of the labor force is historically low. In 1987, toward the end of the cold war, defense (including the military) made up 5.7 percent of the U.S. labor market; in 1968, during Vietnam, 9.8 percent; in 1943, during World War II, 39 percent. After World War II, defense employment dropped to 4.5 percent, but jumped back to 11 percent in 1951 with the Korean War and the start of the cold war.

Does the military industry help make defense spending decisions?

Yes. In 2000, defense lobbying groups spent approximately $60 million. Defense political action committees also contribute roughly $14 million per congressional election cycle. Defense aerospace, defense electronics, and miscellaneous defense are the 31st-, 44th-, and 46th-ranking industries, respectively.
#9797
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:55:36 PM

How much does war cost?

The cost of the Gulf War was approximately $76 billion. Vietnam cost $500 billion; the Korean War, $336 billion; and World War II, almost $3 trillion. Put another way, the Gulf War cost each person in the United States $306; Vietnam, $2,204 per person; Korea, $2,266 per person; and World War II, $20,388 per person. At its outset, estimates for the cost of the Iraqi War were $50 to $140 billion, and an additional $75 to $500 billion for occupation and peacekeeping, or from $444 to $2,274 per person.

How big is the military industry in the United States?

Besides the 1.4 million active duty personnel, the military employs 627,000 civilians. The defense industry employs another 3 million. In total, the military and its supporting manufacturing base employs 3.5 percent of the U.S. labor force. In 2002, the Department of Defense spent $170.8 billion with military contractors such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
#9798
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 04:54:59 PM

How much does it cost the United States to maintain its armed forces?

Since 1975, America has spent between 3 and 6 percent of its gross domestic product on national defense, or approximately 15 to 30 percent of each year's federal budget. In the first years of the twenty-first century, this meant spending roughly $350 billion per year. In comparison, annual spending for other programs included roughly $15 billion on state and international assistance and $60 billion on education. From 1940 to 1996 (a period that includes several cycles of war and peace, including the arms race of the cold war), America spent $16.23 trillion on the military ($5.82 trillion of that on nuclear weapons), versus $1.70 trillion on health care and $1.24 trillion on international affairs.
#9799
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 02:45:48 PM

How deadly is the American military?

It is difficult to measure how many enemy deaths American armed forces have inflicted. Americans and their allies typically cause 10 to 20 times more combat casualties than American forces suffer. Estimates of Iraqi soldiers killed in the Gulf War range from 1,500 to 100,000. The lowest figure would still be 10 times the number of Americans killed in the war. Approximately 850,000 Vietcong died in the Vietnam War, 18 times the 47,000 U.S. dead. More than 600,000 North Korean and 1 million Chinese fighters died in the Korean War, almost 50 times the 33,000 American dead. In World War II, 3,250,000 German and 1,507,000 Japanese soldiers, sailors, and pilots were killed, 16 times the 291,000 American servicemen who were killed.
#9800
General Topic / Re: The Whys and Wherefores of WAR
June 17, 2015, 02:40:50 PM

How large is the American military?

The active peacetime force of the U.S. armed services includes 1.4 million people, with the Army making up almost 500,000 of that number. The Navy has approximately 380,000 men and women on active duty. The Air Force has approximately 365,000, and the Marines have approximately 175,000. Approximately 1.3 million Americans serve in Reserve and National Guard branches that can be activated in time of war.

How many Americans have died in wars?

More than 650,000 Americans have been killed in combat. Another 243,000 have died while wars were being fought, due to training accidents, injury, and disease. In the twentieth century, approximately 53,000 Americans were killed in combat in World War I, 291,000 in World War II, 33,000 in the Korean War, 47,000 in Vietnam, and 148 in the Gulf War. Including deaths from disease, accidents, and other factors, each war's total was much higher: approximately 116,000 died in World War I, 400,000 in World War II, 53,000 in the Korean War, 90,000 in Vietnam, and almost 400 in the Gulf War.