The new Supreme Court ruling increasing the number of party-list representatives in Congress favors the administration more than the opposition.
Based on voting patterns of party-list groups and the political leanings of their representatives, at least 12 of the 32 new party-list groups are likely to join the majority, and only seven will join the minority. The leanings of the rest remain unclear.
Once sworn in, the 32 new party-list representatives could affect Charter change (Cha-cha) moves in the legislative chamber. With just over a year before the 2010 presidential elections, the opposition fears that the adminstration is pushing for Cha-cha to extend President Arroyo's term. Repeated denials by the administration have not convinced Cha-cha critics.
Out of the 32 new party-list representatives, 11 of them have colleagues already sitting in the House of Representatives. These are party-list groups Bayan Muna, A Teacher, Akbayan, Coop-Natco, Anakpawis, ARC, Butil, Abono, Amin, Agap, and An Waray. The new Supreme Court computation allows them to get one more seat.
Based on how these groups voted in the successful ouster of former House Speaker Jose De Venecia in February 2008, and the impeachment cases against President Arroyo, six of these party-list groups can be considered administration allies while five are opposition.
De Venecia had a falling out with President Arroyo when his son, Joey, testified that the First Couple was involved in the allegedly anomalous US$329-million National Broadband Network (NBN) deal with Chinese company ZTE Corp..
Those who supported the administration allies in ousting De Venecia were ARC, Butil, Abono, Agap, and An Waray. Coop-Natco is known to be supportive of the administration having supported the junking of the impeachment bids against President Arroyo. (An Waray is a member of the minority, but usually votes in favor of the administration.)
Aside from these groups, six more among the new party-list groups have links with the administration. They are Ang Kasangga, Bantay, Anad, Uni-Mad, Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP), and Aba-Ako.
Ang Kasangga is represented by Ma. Lourdes T. Arroyo, the younger sister of First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo. It is a group supposedly representing small entrepreneurs.
Bantay, Anad, and Uni-Mad are groups which the Armed Forces of the Philippines allegedly supported. Bantay is represented by former Army general Jovito Palparan, who is accused by leftist groups as responsible for human rights violations.
Labor group TUCP is also known to be supportive of government labor policies.
Aba-ako is represented by former Arroyo Cabinet member, Agriculture Secretary Leonardo Montemayor.
On the other hand, those who voted to keep de Venecia as leader of the lower House were Bayan Muna, Akbayan, Anakpawis, and A Teacher. Another party-list group, Anak Mindanao (Amin), is known to be sympathetic to the minority. The group voted in favor of impeachment bids against President Arroyo.
However, A Teacher could go either way because the group is officially a member of the majority.
Aside from the four, two more in the new party-list batch are likely to join the opposition. These are the Filipinos for Peace Justice and Progress Movement (FPJPM) and Kabataan.
FPJPM was organized to support the presidential bid of the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., who was President Arroyo's rival in the 2004 presidential elections. The opposition has alleged that Poe won.
The Comelec, however, said it has disqualified FPJPM from the party-list since it does not represent any sector.
Kabataan is allied with leftist groups.
Party-list groups that have no well-defined alliances are: Alagad; ABS; Kakusa; Alif; Senior Citizen; Angat Tayo; VFP; Banat; Abakada; 1-Utak; Cocofed
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