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Philippine Daily Inquirer

The ratings of former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and Sen. Manny Villar are up in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey on presidential candidates.

But Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III is still the leading choice of Filipinos to succeed President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

The nationwide survey, conducted from Nov. 4 to 8, showed Aquino topping the list of three leaders vying to replace Ms Arroyo, with 59 percent of respondents choosing him.

Aquino was followed by Villar and Sen. Francis Escudero with 45 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

Compared with the September survey, the number of those who mentioned Teodoro increased by 4 percentage points (from 4 percent to 8 percent), while those rooting for Villar rose by 8 percentage points (from 37 percent to 45 percent).

Given the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, Aquino’s rating (from 60 percent to 59 percent) was statistically unchanged from the previous survey.

Too early

“With five more months to go before the presidential elections, it’s still too early to say how the voting would go,” Villar said in a statement.

“But we are very glad with this result showing that we are not losing the support of the people. We are very thankful for the privilege to help those who are disadvantaged in life, and we vow to help them even after election time,” he said.

For the survey, SWS asked the question: “Under the present Constitution, the term of President Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?”

Commissioned by Hagedorn

SWS said it did not give a list of names to prompt the respondents, but asked them to give up to three names.

The survey, commissioned by Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn, was conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults in Metro Manila, Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.

Other names mentioned by the respondents were former President Joseph Estrada (18 percent) and Sen. Loren Legarda (4 percent).

Both Sen. Mar Roxas and Vice President Noli de Castro got 3 percent, while 2 percent of the respondents mentioned an unspecified Aquino.

Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, Sen. Panfilo Lacson, evangelist Bro. Eddie Villanueva and former Metro Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando got 1 percent each.

Seven percent said they did not have any idea, while 3 percent had no answer.

Support for Escudero, who has withdrawn from the presidential race, increased 12 percentage points (from 15 percent to 27 percent). The ratings of Estrada, Villanueva and Fernando remained unchanged.

Those who saw their ratings drop included Roxas (from 12 percent to 3 percent), De Castro (8 percent to 5 percent) and Legarda (5 percent to 4 percent).

Roxas, Legarda, De Castro, Binay, Lacson and Fernando are not running for president. Roxas, Legarda, Binay and Fernando are seeking the vice presidency.

Solid base

Interviewed in the Senate Tuesday, Aquino said the latest SWS survey showed that his “base” of supporters were “solid.”

“If you’re the first choice of many, it would be unlikely that they would make you their second choice,” he told reporters.

Aquino said he would be more bothered if his lead were small in a survey in which respondents were asked to choose only one preferred candidate.

“(The) choose-three (question) tends to inflate your numbers,” Aquino said.

He said he expected his lead to increase further because some presidential candidates had either withdrawn or would quit the race.

“There are others who are also on the list who have indicated their withdrawal so we’ll be getting from those numbers too,” Aquino said.

A better gauge

He said “the better gauge will be the next survey.”

The choose-three type of surveys usually gives a “distorted picture,” said Roxas, Aquino’s running mate.

Roxas told reporters that this was because it tended to “bloat or inflate the numbers of the second and third choices.” Reports from Inquirer Research and Christine O. Avendaño


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