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The political situations in the neighboring provinces of Bohol and Leyte bear watching. Their developments might spell which directions those aspiring for national leadership might be headed.

Let us take the case of Bohol on the basis of just two sources. These are news stories filtering from that island that find spaces in our local dailies and unguarded statements of some Boholano bigwigs. If they were to be believed, the wrangling there seems to suggest that not all is well in the Lakas-Kampi-CMD camp. It looks like the once formidable provincial political organization wholly supportive of the administration of Her Excellency President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has been besieged by internal squabbles that, if they remain unattended to, can assume the irreparable kind.

Only about two months ago, or shortly after aspirants filed their certificates of candidacies, the administration party in Bohol appeared invincible. They had candidates in all levels. Most of them are seeking re-election or swinging their swivels to other positions because their terms are about to expire on them. Because of their positions, they have been able to bask in the glory of having allocated funds for this and that project. Many of them of course, do not take the effort of explaining to their constituents that the projects are funded by people's money.

There are also national government projects poured by the administration of Her Excellency President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The road network around the island is enviable. It has made traveling around the island a pleasure. And the dam that services some major agricultural fields there is able to prove its worth this El Niño. These projects might have be introduced far and between each other and the badges of corruption might dwell in the minds of the people, but a grateful citizenry is prepared to overlook the paucity of the projects and the perceived graft that rides with them. That should explain why the administration party was hitting high marks in poll surveys then.

However, as we are a little more than a week before the start of the campaign period for local officials, the cracks of the administration party get visible. Formidable names start to question the wisdom of party hierarchy. Worse, some of them have announced their secession, (is there such a term in politics?) from Lakas. These are personalities who command huge chunks of votes. Their defection stands to affect the projections of candidate Teodoro.

Conversely, the situation is bound to improve the capability of the standard bearer of the Nacionalista Party to amass support. By some indications, those leaving the administration group are heading the way of Villar. For example, a candidate for a local office there running under the canopy of Malacañang and with whom I had the chance to exchange views, swore to high heavens that a number of his political friends from other towns would tell you they belonged to the Lakas-NP. He hastened to add that the surname NP to the name Lakas was in preparation for the eventual announcement of their change of political coats.

In Southern Leyte, the control of the Mercado brothers (one a congressman and the other, the governor) is not as rocky as that of Bohol. They are organized in practically all towns. In some municipalities, their candidates seeking re-election do not appear to be seriously contested. The mayors belonging to the other camp, (and they are allied with the LP) are few.

Their combined votes, in the context of the province, may even be smaller that what the NP may gather because this latter party has active supporters in many parts of the province. Considering that the Mercados are not known to be stingy and politics in that province lean on the vastness of logistics, the Mercados may well bring victory to the administration. By the same financial yardstick may Villar romp off a close second placer among Southern Leytenos.

As we enter the local campaign period, the developments in these provinces will be quick and sharp. Which party understands the situation very well and acts appropriately may savor the taste of political victory.


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