i think china will stop bullying its small neighbors and weaken its claim on spratly when this scenario will happen...
we are not advocating war here, its just a "what if" scenario posted by el_commandante from timawa.net
PART 1 (posted by EL COMMANDANTE FROM TIMAWA.NET)
Guys, if you have the time please read this post, Very Happy take note I am not advocating a war here. I was already admonished by Opus for this. I wrote this post to serve as an outline for the book that I am planning to write, if I find the time. I would need your suggestion, inputs, and criticism.
GLOSSARY
PROC: People’s Republic of China
PLA: People’s Liberation Army
PLAAF: People’s Liberation Army Air force
PLAN: People’s Liberation Army Navy
ChiCom: Chinese communist
Republic of China or ROC Taiwan’s official name
ROCAF: Republic of China Air Force
A scenario of US, China conflict.
China’s emerging status as a superpower is undeniable. Her rapid economic expansion makes her a manufacturing giant; in technology she is fast catching up with the west, Japan, and Korea, China in fact has recently acquired the pc unit of IBM corporation. China is now the third country to launch a manned mission in the space, and is expected to launch a manned mission on the moon within twenty years.
The USA can sneer that they landed on the moon first in 1969. But the US must remember that was 36 years ago, since then the growth of space exploration has stunted. China’s space agency has a yearly budget of only 2 billion dollars, while NASA’s yearly budget is bigger than the Philippine foreign debt. Imagine if China’s space agency has a budget of just half of NASA’s budget, she could send a manned mission to mars!
So why am I telling this? Because space is the future battleground of the USA and China, for technological supremacy, it maybe good for mankind because space exploration has commercial and military application.
Taiwan no doubt is the main thorn in the US, China relations, but even if Taiwan reunified peacefully with China, rivalry between US and China would remain not because of China’s communist ideology. It is because man cannot live without a rival, future enemy, and traditional enemy. Like the Greek and Turkish rivalry, Japan versus China, Russia and Korea. The Arabs versus the Jews, Kurds, and Christians. Since China is the only country that could threaten the US sole status as a superpower therefore it is only logical for the US to prevent that from happening at all cost. This is the reason why the USA would come to the rescue of Taiwan in the event of Chinese invasion, China has Hong Kong already, and a combined China, HK, and Taiwan economy is a nightmare for the USA.
The year is 2016, in this scenario; China now the third largest economy in the world after Japan, invaded Taiwan (disguised as a mere military exercise) after announcing its intention to declare independence, which is not really surprising because, Taiwan for years had been insisting that it is separate from China. Unable to defend herself Taiwan beg the US to come to her rescue, The US would come to Taiwan’s rescue anyway even if Taiwan do not ask for it explicitly. Prior to the invasion of Taiwan, Chinese commercial vessels are expected to block the Panama canal, and Suez canal by deliberately sabotaging the ships while passing through that canals. The US navy carrier battle group in the mediterranean and Atlantic would be unable to come quickly to the rescue of Taiwan, because of the mammoth obstacles in the canals that are made of steel.
Prior to the invasion, China’s communist ally North Korea under pressure from China would raise its alert status by moving nearly a million troops, thousand’s of artillery, tanks, and IFV near the DMZ separating North Korea to South Korea. Nokor air force is flying close to the border with activated radar, Nokor navy ships flagrantly intruded the sea border separating the two Korea. The purpose of this provocative action by North Korea and China is to tie up the US forces in South Korea, and Japan, thus preventing the US forces to automatically come to the rescue of Taiwan fearing that North Korea might attack South Korea.
Taiwan is expected to fight with ferocity of a lion; she has one of the best air force in Asia such as the F16, Mirage 2000, and Ching Kuo fighters, though ageing already Taiwan periodically upgrade its fleet of about 550 aircraft thus attaining an operational readiness of 90%. But the Taiwanese navy is no match for its giant rival. The eight diesel submarines ordered by Taiwan from the United States could not be completed because of internal politics, and when the order for the acquisition of submarines was finally given a go signal by the Taiwanese government it was too late! The invasion has just begun, (code name: operation Dragon’s reach) but Taiwan has six La Fayette class stealth frigates, nine second hand ex USN frigates and destroyers, two ageing Dutch made submarine and ten squadron of locally developed missile boats equipped with harpoon ASM and indigenously developed missile system, definitely no match to PLAN’s powerful submarine fleet of about forty, a combination of seventy five destroyers, and frigates, including Russian made destroyers, and thousands of missile boats and hovercraft for beachhead landing. (Like the Normandy beachhead landing)
In this scenario, at about 0200 hours Christmas day, China pursuant to the implementation of its tough anti secession law and using it as one of the justifications for the invasion, launched a barrage of surface-to-surface missiles, a mix of Chinese, and Russian made, to Taiwanese cities, military installations and bases. (On another angle this is not really an invasion, Taiwan is part of China, the UN and the whole world recognize China’s sovereignty over Taiwan. Therefore this action by China is a mere enforcement of the law.) Chinese warplanes such as SU27SK, SU30MK, heavy bombers, J8 and J10 fighters whose production China had just completed for a total of 900 aircraft replacing the ageing J7 fighters, flew in a coordinated attack to establish air superiority with the SU30Mk armed with anti ship sunburn missile devoted to hunt Taiwanese navy ships. In this air and naval attack China is guided by five radar planes, the Chinese version of AWACS acquired with some technical assistance from Israel, Russia, and Europe when the latter partially lifted its arms embargo against China. Included in this air armada are twelve air refueling tanker a converted Boeing aircraft. The US knew that China is converting the aircraft to flying fuel tanker, but has decided to keep silent about it for fearing it might lose the huge Chinese market for commercial aircraft.
The sky over the Taiwan strait (it is more than a hundred miles separating China from Taiwan) was filled by more than four hundred warplanes, And in the sea, thousands of ships including commandeered commercial ships loaded with armored infantry vehicles, and Type 90 main battle tanks sailed toward Taiwan, and in the tiny Taiwanese island of Quemoy, the island nearest to China than Taiwan. This tiny island is Taiwan’s first line of defense against China.
Taiwan, and the US knew that the invasion was imminent but could not agree when exactly it would be launched, but they were not caught off guard, alerted of the incoming fighters, and bombers by the ROCAF AWACS flying 24 hours a day, Taiwan immediately launch its F16A, Mirage2000 and Ching Kuo fighters a total of 235 fighters. Within minutes of detecting each other over the Taiwan straits, the Chinese and Taiwanese fighters launched a salvo of beyond visual range or BVR missiles (R-77 versus AMRAAM) against each other, but effective counter measure such as electronic, radar jamming, and decoys by ROCAF defeated the first salvo of BVR missiles by the PLAAF, only a few of the ROCAF fighters were shot down by the R-77 missile, not to be outdone the PLAAF fighters are armed also with counter measure although not as effective like the Taiwanese fighters. In the initial air-to-air engagement the ROCAF fighters shot down about 23 percent of the PLAAF fighters, but the PLAAF numerical superiority and aided by PLAN destroyers firing SAM to the ROCAF fighters negates Taiwan’s advantage in electronic warfare technology. Airpower historians later would describe it as the largest radar missile shootout ever. Soon both sides are now on the visual range, this time dogfighting skill, and maneuverability of the aircraft would play a big role in this knife fight. In a show of superb flying skill by the Taiwanese pilots, The ROCAF dominated the knife fight, but the dogfight was very difficult on both sides because it was nighttime and visual contact even with NVG is still limited. The similarity between the J10 and F16 made it more difficult on both sides to shoot at each other; during the rumble of the ROCAF and PLAAF fighters, as a result some of the fighters were victims of friendly fire. Bright flashes indicating a hit could be seen everywhere, missile shots from the sidewinder and PL-8 was like a shooting stars flying horizontally. The ROCAF eventually won this round, but it was a Pyrric victory some 40 percent of its fighters were shot down. The PLAAF before fleeing did manage to fire some of its cruise missiles heading to Taiwan inflicting only minor damages, because most of the cruise missiles were intercepted by the land based CIWS.
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