TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 26
Typhoon #JulianPH (KRATHON)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 02 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“JULIAN” WEAKENS INTO A TYPHOON AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY.
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon JULIAN was estimated based on all available data at 280 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.4°N, 119.2°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 205 km/h, and central pressure of 945 hPa
Present Movement:
Northwestward slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 650 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern and western portions of Ilocos Norte (Pasuquin, Sarrat, Paoay, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Bacarra, Currimao, Adams, Pinili, San Nicolas, Dumalneg, Laoag City, Badoc, City of Batac), and the northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 26 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to JULIAN.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are weaker in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 11 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 5.0 m over the seaboard of Batanes
• Up to 4.5 m over the seaboard of Babuyan Islands and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
Sea travel is risky for most types or tonnage of vessels, including all small seacrafts and motorbancas. Mariners are advised to remain in port or seek safe shelter or harbor.
Moderate or rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m over the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Up to 3.5 m over the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region
• Up to 3.0 m over the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the seaboard of Zambales
• Up to 2.5 m over the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• There is a significant change in the track forecast of JULIAN. The typhoon is still forecast to turn northeastward towards the southwestern coast of Taiwan, where it is expected to make landfall tonight or tomorrow early morning. After landfall, JULIAN is forecast to move erratically over the landmass and coastal waters of Taiwan before emerging over the Taiwan Strait on Friday evening or Saturday early morning. Afterwards, JULIAN will move southwestward over the Taiwan Strait and the waters south of mainland China.
• At present, there is no dominant weather system influencing the general motion of JULIAN. As such, considerable shifts in the track forecast of succeeding bulletins are not ruled out.
• JULIAN will continue to weaken due to a combination of incoming northeasterly wind flow over the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait and lower ocean heat content in its vicinity (which is related to upwelling of cooler waters caused by its slow movement for nearly two days). Further weakening is expected once JULIAN hits the landmass over Taiwan due to frictional effects. The tropical cyclone may become a remnant low during the weekend.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
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