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Author Topic: The Shtokman Conundrum  (Read 721 times)

lakandula

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The Shtokman Conundrum
« on: November 05, 2012, 06:14:27 PM »
The Shtokman Conundrum

600 kilometers north of Murmansk and over 1,000 feet below the Arctic waves, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the blunder of his career. The former KGB spy staked his presidency on a $40 billion project that's blown up in his face – thanks to historic, unforeseen events in the U.S. Now, the steely-eyed strongman finds himself touring the globe battling to save his pet project – but (in a case of delicious irony) inadvertently steering U.S. investors to the dividend-boosting play of a lifetime.

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lakandula

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Re: The Shtokman Conundrum
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 09:26:25 PM »
Not long ago, Vladimir Putin—the former KGB operative whose specialty was snooping on student dissidents—was yearning to save America’s environment.

And Poland’s.

And Britain’s.

Also France, Ukraine, Germany and China.

Yes, Putin, the steely-eyed quasi-dictator, was claiming to be an “environmentalist.”

What had Putin thundering from podiums around the globe... on behalf of saving the world’s forests, oceans, rivers and cuddly animals? The same man who was instrumental in creating Russia’s massively polluted petro-state?

And how did this shine the light on a sweeping (but little noticed) change in America that’s helping create a new generation of millionaires and billionaires?

Gazprom’s Recent “Activities” Offer a Hint

The giant gas producer, Russia’s largest company, resembles the KGB more and more. (Some claim Gazprom operates like a crime syndicate. Others say the Gestapo.)

The main supplier of critical natural gas to Europe, Gazprom has been abusing its European neighbors, amassing a private army and cranking out reams of disinformation and propaganda that would have made Nazi mouthpiece Joseph Goebbels proud.

You’ll recall in 2009, amid a pricing squabble, Gazprom abruptly cut off gas supplies to Ukraine during the depth of winter. The cut-off left Ukraine and over a dozen other European countries freezing in the bitter cold.

Last winter the company did it again. Gazprom sharply cut gas supplies to nine European nations—in the most brutal winter in decades. One in which a devastating cold front killed over 300 across Eastern Europe.

None of these strong-arm tactics fazed Gazprom’s top managers, many of whom were Putin’s cronies in the KGB. At least a dozen others are former Federal Security Service types, including Deputy Chairman Valery Golubyov. The FSB is the main successor agency of the KGB.

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lakandula

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Re: The Shtokman Conundrum
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2012, 12:31:41 AM »
Back to the USSR?

According to the Moscow Times, “Gazprom in many ways is more important in advancing the Kremlin’s foreign policy than the Defense Ministry or the Foreign Ministry.”

Although an international corporation, Gazprom’s largest shareholder is the Russian state. And one politician in particular is believed to have stashed millions—if not billions—from Gazprom profits in Swiss bank accounts.

That would be, you guessed it, Vladimir Putin—new “Friend of the Earth.”

And suddenly Gazprom was going green, too!

All of a sudden, the ruthless company was recasting itself as a great champion of the environment—the environment of other countries, mind you. (Gazprom still happily exploits the delicate Siberian tundra to churn out gas profits.)

Reminiscent of phony Soviet “peace groups” intended to undermine Western democracies, the giant gas producer was paying a variety of PR firms and bogus environmental groups to “partner” with authentic western ecological organizations which they infiltrate and influence. So...

Why were Putin and Gazprom Suddenly Acting Like Granola-Loving Tree-Huggers?

Two words: American shale.

Putin loathes it. And Gazprom fears it.

U.S. shale has shattered Gazprom’s tidy monopoly (some would say stranglehold) on European natural gas supplies.

Worse, U.S. shale production has delivered a blow to the solar plexus of Putin’s pet project—a multi-billion-dollar development scheme he’s staked his future on.

Leaving the Russian strongman faced with...

The Shtokman Conundrum

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lakandula

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Re: The Shtokman Conundrum
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2012, 06:59:17 AM »
The Shtokman Conundrum

Over 1,000 feet below the Arctic waves sleeps a vast reservoir of 130 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 37 million tons of gas condensate—the latter, a rich source of natural gas liquids (NGLs), the valuable oil proxy highly prized by petrochemical companies.

Shtokman, at latitude 73°N, longitude 44°E, about 600 kilometers north of Murmansk, is one of the largest gas fields on earth—and all of it lies within Russia’s borders.

Discovered over 20 years ago, Shtokman remains largely untapped because of the immense technical and cost challenges in the hostile Arctic environment.

But Vladimir Putin had made the unlocking of Russia’s potentially massive oil and gas reserves a main—some would say paramount—priority.

Thus, Putin was “all in” on Shtokman—despite the field’s estimated production price tag of over $40 billion.

In fact, some say he staked his presidency on its success.

Foreign companies climbed all over each other to join the Shtokman project. Gazprom entertained bids from ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Norsk Hydro, Statoil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Chevron and others to develop the field.

Ultimately, Gazprom signed French company Total and Norway’s Statoil to partner in organizing, designing, financing, constructing and operating the Shtokman phase one infrastructure.

Putin’s grand scheme seemed unstoppable.

Russia’s position as an energy powerhouse seemed as solid as the walls of the Kremlin. With most of Europe dependent on Russia’s natural gas, and one of the world’s largest natural gas fields primed to be exploited for decades—what could possibly go wrong?

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lakandula

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Re: The Shtokman Conundrum
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2012, 03:11:48 PM »
Enter Putin’s Nightmare

The Great American Shale Revolution—triggered by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—changed the world...

... and transformed Putin into an ardent (though highly dubious) “ecological warrior.”

Overnight, the U.S. overtook Russia as the largest gas-producing nation in the world.

Shale gas flooded the American market, touching off a drop in prices which bottomed to a 10-year low in April. They’ve since showed signs of recovery. More on that later.

These events wiped the U.S. off Russia’s list of major export markets for gas and NGLs from the Shtokman field.

Suddenly, the U.S. doesn’t need Russian gas. Not only that, the U.S. will likely become a gas exporter as soon as 2015.

This nightmare energy scenario left Putin, the former spy, battling to save the Shtokman project.

It was an uphill fight.

Whispers were spreading that Total and Statoil—Gazprom’s two partners—might pull out of the Shtokman project.

Adding to Putin’s worries, China, the world’s biggest consumer of energy, has been exploring its own shale reserves and hinting it may not go through with a proposed gas pipeline from Russia.

What’s more, Gazprom customers in Europe—including Ukraine and Poland—are looking into shale formations under their own soil.

Out of the blue, Russia’s dream of global dominance through control of natural gas supplies was threatened.

Actually, it was worse.

You see, Putin can make all the fiery anti-shale speeches he likes, and Gazprom can issue even more vicious threats to its customers, but...

Nothing Can Stop the Shale Revolution

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lakandula

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Re: The Shtokman Conundrum
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2012, 03:13:04 PM »
The tide of history is on the side of American shale.

And investing in our shale is not only smart... it’s patriotic.

You’re aware, of course, that advances in horizontal drilling and fracking have unlocked the massive natural gas potential of shale and other unconventional energy plays in the U.S.—and in the process have redrawn the global energy map.

Across the region today, horizontal wells drill miles beneath the earth, reaching out thousands of feet laterally to suck up gas and oil trapped in the rock.

Fracking further enhances productivity, releasing gas and oil from their rocky prison of tight sand.

Another recent development to benefit shale investors has special importance: the dramatic appreciation in value of a valuable but little-known family of fluids, the aforementioned natural gas liquids.

NGLs are liquids produced during the manufacturing, purification and stabilization of natural gas—principally ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and natural gasoline. Hard to believe, but true—natural gas is “cheap,” but when split into its liquid parts, they become high-value products.

NGLs receive minimal coverage in the media compared to oil and natural gas. But they’re vital energy commodities—and becoming more vital every year.

NGLs are almost replacing oil in the petrochemical industry.

Indeed, petrochemical companies consider NGLs a cheaper substitute for oil and are buying the precious liquids hand over fist.

But all this rich promise for gas prices pales in comparison with...

The Big Switch

Investors are so focused on today’s low price of natural gas, they’re ignoring a key fact: Electricity generated by gas-fired plants has jumped by more than 50% over the last decade.

This constitutes the SECOND WAVE of the Great American Shale Revolution—powered by skyrocketing demand for gas to fire America’s new or reconfigured power plants.

The ongoing shift of power companies from coal to gas is the biggest power shift since Americans switched from oil lamps to electric lights.

Believe it: The Big Switch is underway. You can watch this historic energy shift unfold before your eyes... as you line your wallet with solid profits.

Here’s why I believe this trend is unstoppable...

You know how polarized we Americans are on the issue of energy generation. Public opinion is hopelessly split.

Just about half of America clings to the wholly unrealistic view that we can replace ALL coal and nuclear with renewable energy such as wind and solar very soon... while the other half believes the entire notion of workable green energy is flat-out nuts.

Good luck trying to convince either group to change its mind!

Leaving the only realistic solution: natural gas—the cleanest of all fossil-based fuels, and one which is found in massive quantities right here at home.

And despite the Sierra Club’s hysterical protests, the Big Switch to natural gas (solidly underway and gaining momentum) can restore U.S. growth to robust levels... and provide the cleanest energy currently available to a society unwilling to tolerate slow growth and high unemployment.

America is already using more gas than ever to generate electricity. Usage has steadily risen over the past 30 years and now accounts for 23% of U.S. electricity. That’s about to go up even more—and fast.

Natural-gas-fired plants will account for 60% of new capacity additions in the coming years—and gas will almost certainly provide nearly half of America’s electricity within two decades. Prices are certain to rise as use increases—dramatically.

What’s more, the U.S. (to Putin’s fury) is gearing up to export natural gas exports to Europe and Asia. Gas prices across the pond are an amazing $7 higher per thousand cubic feet than here in the U.S.

The Wall Street Journal reports, “Average futures prices are about $9.50 per thousand cubic feet in Europe and about $16 per thousand feet in Asia... Pricing differences this big will make exporting natural gas lucrative.”

So here’s how it all ended: In late August Gazprom announced it was backing out of the Shtokman project, acknowledging that it simply did not make economic sense to continue with it given recent developments in natural gas production. I’m sure Putin was seething at the public humiliation, finally getting a dose of his own medicine. Another embarrassing defeat for the slow-moving, bureaucratic bungling of the former Soviet Union, and a resounding victory for free market capitalism.

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