MikeLigalig.com

Update about the new Tropical Storm to be named Ramil (Oct. 16, 2009)

New storm may enter RP Friday night - Pagasa
GMANews.TV - Friday, October

A tropical storm that may threaten parts of Luzon this weekend may enter Philippine territory as early as Friday night, state weather forecasters said.

But the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) also said the storm may yet spare the country and head for Taiwan.

"Yung potential na maaring tamaan, either Central Luzon, Northern Luzon, o bahagyang lilihis at patungong Taiwan (Chances are it will hit Central Luzon or Northern Luzon, or change course and head for Taiwan)," Pagasa head Prisco Nilo said in an interview on dzXL radio.

The storm, once it enters Philippine territory, will be code-named "Ramil."

Nilo said that while the storm, internationally code-named "Lupit," is heading for Visayas, there is very little chance it will make landfall over the central Philippine region.

"Medyo napakababa ng probability [na] tumama ng Visayas (There is a very small chance of it hitting Visayas)," he said.

On the other hand, Pagasa forecaster Connie Dadivas said the storm will likely enter the Philippine area of responsibility about 9 p.m. Friday.

No landfall?

Dadivas, however, said the storm will not immediately have any direct effect on any part of the country Friday night.

"Boundary pa lang ito, papasok ito sa boundary pa lang ... Di natin masasabing magla-landfall ito (It will just be entering the boundary of our territory. It will not necessarily make landfall)," she said in an interview on dzBB radio.

In its 5 a.m. bulletin, Pagasa said Lupit was estimated at 1,350 km east of Visayas with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

It is forecast to move west northwest at 26 kph, Pagasa said.

Also, Pagasa said an intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is affecting Southern Luzon and Visayas.

"Southern Luzon and Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms," it said.

Tropical cyclones "Ondoy" and "Pepeng" wrought havoc across Luzon, including Metro Manila, killing nearly 700 people and displacing over a million others. Authorities have reported that billions have been lost in damage to properties and agriculture. - GMANews.TV


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mao ni ang satellite image sa bag-o nga bagjo, Tropical Storm Lupit to be named as Ramil diria sa Pilipinas.

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Announcement:

The satellite graph above of typhoon ramil is updated.

I was surprised to observe that the graph I posted in here is automatically updated also whenever there is an update (weather).

Mao nang tan-aw lamang mo sa graph. Notice typhoon ramil moving towards the northern luzon.

Pray for our brothers and sisters in the north who were just recently battered by Pepeng.

Ipahilajo intawon ning bagjoha.

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Storm Santi's Satellite Image and Projected Path





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Metro Manila, 17 provinces under Signal No. 2
Philstar.com - 2 hours 32 minutes agoSendIM StoryPrint.MANILA, Philippines – Storm Signal No. 2 has been hoisted over Metro Manila and 17 provinces in Central and Southern Luzon, and the Bicol Region as typhoon “Santi” continues to zoom in on the Aurora-Quezon area, the weather bureau said today (Oct. 30).

In its 5 a.m. update, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Santi (international codename: “Mirinae”) was spotted 580 km east of Infanta, Quezon, at 4 a.m.

The typhoon packs maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph. Pagasa said Santi is moving west southwest at 22 kph.

With this, Storm Signal No. 3 was raised over Polilio Islands.

Metro Manila, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bataan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes have been placed under Storm Signal No. 2.

The Department of Education has already suspended classes in the elementary and high school levels in public and private schools in Metro Manila in light of the storm alert.

Meanwhile, Storm Signal No. 1 was declared over Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, La Union, Pangasinan, Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro and the Calamian group of islands, the Pagasa update said.

The weather bureau forecast  “Santi” to make landfall in Aurora and northern Quezon sometime today. The typhoon is expected to cross Central Luzon tomorrow and would affect provinces of Central and Northern Luzon.

“Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides,” Pagasa said.

The weather bureau also warned those living along coastal areas to watch out for storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon

“Santi” is expected to leave the country on Sunday in the area of Zambales, Pagasa added. - By Dino Maragay (Philstar News Service, www.philstar.com)


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nabanhaw na si Ernie Baron.....in the person of Bai Tigs...

Salamat kaayo bai Tigs...atleast updated ta sa dagan sa bagyo...

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After typhoon Tino, here comes tropical depression Urduja. Follow this link for the expected path of the tropical depression.

http://typhoon2000.ph/activetrack.gif

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Strong LPA (90W/1005 MB) rapidly developing off the Philippine Sea, east of Samar or near 11.1N 128.3E...about 320 km ESE of Borongan, E.Samar

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shphil.html

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oi, wa diay nimo ma view Bay Proc? Naa man sija. Satellite image sa kadtong LPA ni sa Eastern Samar pero karon okay na.

as of the moment, way tropical cyclone formation sa Philippine Sea, Pacific Ocean ug sa South China Sea.

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Typhoon watcher naka karon bai Tigs? hehe


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basin kinis bai Tig mauy nabinlan sa libreto ni Ernie baron...

Matsalam Bay Tigs!

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Ahong matubag aning tanan, nga dakong sekreto ahong kinatawo aw eh pagkatawo diay. Hehehehe.

Ang bagjo diay nga tawgon ug AGATON mura ug dili ra makaapektar sa ugang juta sa Pilipinas. Sayang lamang.

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LPA 99W, forming over Micronesia and is under observation (Mura diay ni ug gioperahan, hahahaha) kung mahimong bagjo.

Unta ug makaabot diria sa Pilipinas kay arang ka init jamo na.

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Bisan ug hinay nga uwan ra Bay Bugs basta makapuno ra sa tubig diria kay ambot makaabot pa ba kaha sa June ang reserve.

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Amen, Bay Bugs. Mao gajud.

O.T. Iakip na lamang pud diay ang hangin nga kusog kusog Bay Bugs kay aron mapalid ning mga nasaag aning TB nga nagsamok samok ra. Mura jaway ug baki nga nagsige ug kokak sa ilang manok sa sabong karong Mayo.

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Mura man ug naghagok pa si MDB, o nagtikangkang pa ba kaha pud ron. Bwahahahahaha.

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Bwahahahahahahaha!

Basin baja ug kitay malatiguhan ug atong istorbohong nagtikangkang pa.

Peace talks MDB ha?

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Didto na sa Afghanistan Bay Bugs, nagmercenary mang ko karijot.

Di bitaw oi, wa ra sie na, nahikaplagang hulagway sa dagat sa mga balayan.

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Pagasa: LPA marks start of rainy season

Philstar.com - MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area (LPA) spotted northeast of Basco, Batanes signals the start of the rainy season, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said today.

In a news conference in Quezon City today, Robert Sawi, chief of the Pagasa weather forecasting, said rain gauge monitors in weather stations across the country have nearly accumulated 25 milliliters of rain. This, Sawi said, indicates the start of the rainy season.

"At least three weather stations have already registered the required criteria to declare the onset of rainy season, we only need one more reports so we can declare the start of the rainy season," he said.

Sawi issued the statement as the weather bureau spotted an LPA about 40 kilometers northwest of Basso, Batanes — which could possibly develop into a cyclone and be the first of the 11 weather disturbances expected to hit the country in the next six months.

He added that Pagasa expects two typhoons to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month. - By Perseus Echeminada (Philstar News Service, www.philstar.com)


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For the updates about Tropical Depression Basyang, follow this link to PAG-ASA.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals


PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, AND AURORA.


PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, SOUTHERN QUEZON, LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, N.ECIJA, N.VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather later today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02) and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, REST OF BICOL, REST OF SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES AND REST OF LUZON (EXCEPT ILOCOS NORTE, MINDORO, & BATANES).

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph can be expected beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).



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Lipay mga tawo dire Bay Bugs kay uwan na. Mapapha na unja ning water shortage diria.

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Nakorat mi dire sa Manila around 2 or 3 a.m naghaguros ang kusog nga hangin ug bundak sa uwan. Ang ahong pagkatug gabii napakgang sa Bagjong Basyang.

Direct hit diay ang Manila when in fact ang forecast or models sa PAG-ASA nag ingon nga adto sa Quezon-Aurora area ang direct hit and the typhoon will traverse Central Luzon. Because of the situation daghang mananagat ang missing karon ug as of today 3 ang confirmed dead.

Mao pay pagbalik sa kuryente dire sa area sa among office ug gabie pa way tubig (what an irony?).

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Reflection on Typhoon Basyang:
Wa untay namatay ani kung diha pa lamay proper warning and appropriate measures taken.  :'(

Not that much has changed since Ondoy. 

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/star/20100714/tph-6-laborers-pinned-death-by-collapsed-541dfb4.html

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Newly elected President Benigno Aquino III scolded the weather bureau for failing to predict that the storm would hit Manila.

"I hope this is the last time we are all brought to areas different from where we should be," Aquino told officials during a meeting of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, noting that government agencies were relying on the weather bureau for their preparations.

Weather bureau chief Prisco Nilo explained that it takes forecasters six hours to update weather bulletins. The weather bureau has complained of lack of funding and equipment.

--from Associated Press


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Ka Ernie, naa na sa'y bagyo?

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Tropical Depression Domeng is forecasted to affect Northern Luzon Provinces within this week.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wb.html

Unta ug sakto na ning forecast kay expected nga si Domeng mointensify into a tropical storm. Goodluck na lamang. 

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Tsk, tsk, tsk, mag coconut crab hunting ra ba unta mi sa Sabtang... 

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Domeng weakens but another weather disturbance is expexted to develop into a tropical cycloe within the next few days and will be named as ESTER.

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/gma/20100804/tph-domeng-weakens-new-cyclone-looms-pag-d6cd5cf.html

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how sad.  one mistake of a weather scientist and he's out.  to think that we have lost a big number of weather forecasters lately for jobs abroad.  forecasters are not perfect human beings.  sure, they're supposed to analyze and predict, but the results, i suppose, are unpredictable.  we could settle for near-miss predictions with our kind of resources.

i hope politics is not part of the equation here.  otherwise, why blame a doctor for the death of a terminally ill patient?   

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Trpical Depression Florita

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/wp201007_5day.gif

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Tropical Depression Henry

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1010.gif

Note the difference in the forecast of the track of this weather disturbance. Ambot asa kahay near accurate ani nila. PAG-ASA ba kaha?

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Tropical Depression Inday as per PAG-ASA weather bulletin.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html

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bagyo na naman, pareng Ernie?

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Wa pa Bay Bugs, tua pa sa Guam dapit pero murag maagian ang Pilipinas.

Ato ning bantajan. Pirme ra man gud ug Low Pressure ra ang mangagi. Hinay ang dagan sa mga bagjo ron.

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Tropical Storm Megi (Yesterday's TD 15W)

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Forecast on the possible track of "MEGI".

Source: PAG-ASA

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Sa 10:00 p.m weather bulletin gikan sa PAG-ASA tulo ka scenario ang mahitabo within the next two days bahin sa Typhoon Megi (to be named Typhoon Juan)


Karon ang bagjo may da nga uwan sama sa kang Bagjong Ondoy niadtong miaging tuig. Kani base sa ijahang kakusgon nga gibutang karon (October 15) sa Category 2 (154-177 kph).

Expected Date of Landfall: Monday morning.

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base na ni sa hi-tech natong pag-asa, bai tigs?

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Storm Signal Number is hoisted over:

Cagayan
Isabela
Calayan Group of Islands
and Babuyan Group of Islands

(All are Northern Luzon Provinces)

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Cagayan and Isabela provinces have been placed under Storm Signal Number 4 in the 5 p.m. weather bulletin of PAG-ASA.

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I saw it flashed on TV here, I hope it will not leave too much damages.

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My heart goes out for the victims, really sad, grabe kakusog sa bagyo.

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A related video of Typhoon Megi (Supertyphoon Juan).

Super typhoon Megi / Juan Philippines Raw Footage / 台風第13号 (メーギー) / 台風梅姬

As of last night, total confirmed dead is 16. Total injured 9.

Total estimated loss on agriculture P4 billion.

Sa niaging bagjo sa ahong tan-aw nakapangandam ug maajo ang Pilipinas. Though naay namatay pero minimal kaajo. Ang PAG-ASA every hour nagahatag ug update not like during Typhoon Basyang's time nga every 6 hours ang update and almost accurate na ang forecast. Ikaduha ang sajo nga deployment ug pagpangandam sa NDCC. Ug ikatulo ang media involvement.

Take note nga during Typhoon Basyang's time more or less 147 ang namatay. Mostly mangingisda nga naabtan didto sa lawod intawon. Wa man guy klaro forecast sauna.

Pasayloa ko ug molili ra ko diria sa pajag kay daghan gitrabaho dire. Mosulpot ra unja ko ug baik kung makahigajun na ko.

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Matud pa sa PAG-ASA website si Tropical Depression 16W puwedeng mosud sa Philippine Area of Responsibility usa magpaniudto o dili ganing sajo karong palis. Kung makasud na ni si TD 16W panganlan ni ug Katring.

Pero basi pud sa ubang weather models murag slim ang chance ni Katring nga makaapektar sa Northern Luzon. Ang movement ani nga weather disturbance nga West-Northwest mura ug dili padung sa Luzon. Usa pa naay high pressure area nga puwede makatunaw aning bagjoha sa panahon nga magpaduol na unja ni sa Pilipinas.

Diay usa ka forecast model para ni TD 16W:



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Diay nindot nga movie ni Super Typhoon Juan, i click ning naa sa ubos:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/activeflash/stormloop.htm

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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/advi.html


http://typhoon2000.ph/t2kgraphsat.gif

A low pressure area in the eastern part of Mindanao is bringing scattered rain throughout Mindanao and the Visayas. DUgay na ning LPA nag istambay didto, mga Lunes pa.

Giexpect nga mahimo ning bagjo pero wa malahos. As of 12:00 pm report, usa na ang patay sa uwan nga da aning LPA, taga Agusan del Norte.

Kung may mahimong bagjo karong buwan sa Pebrero, tawgon kani ug AMANG.

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Kon di mahimong bagjo, tawgon na lag Traysikad?

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Tropical Storm formation is expected within 6 to 24 hrs from now. LPA 98W has a 95% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone (HIGH CHANCE!).

Unta mag andam na ang Local Governments ani. Ilabina ang Bicol Region, Southern, Central ug Northern Luzon Regions (especially those that are located in the eastern parts of the country. This is to avoid casualties. Pirme lamang naay mamatay basta naay bagjo. Last time, sa panahon ni Tropical Storm Bebeng, 33 intawon ka kinabuhi nakalas. Unta makaexperience pud ang Pilipinas ug bagjo nga wa jamoy nakalas.

I click ni o aron makita ang current satellite video ni LPA 98W. Dili ni scandal.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

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Nahimo nang bagjo gajud ang kanhi LPA 98W. From now up to 120 hrs (5 days after) giforecast ang bagjo nga moabot ang kakusgo sa Category 2. Wa pa may international code name ag bagjo pero currently FOUR ang ijahang pangan sa models (siguro kay ikaupat man nga bagjo for 2011 Pacific Typhoon Season, pero dili ko sure ani). Wa pa tawga ug Chedeng kay wa pa man pud mosud sa Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

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