“We took The Prophecy of the Popes, we took what was happening in Italian media, and we determined, based on a great deal of information, that Pope Benedict would likely step down, citing health reasons, in 2012 or 2013,†he said.
Here's a more sober analysis from The Philadelphia Inquirer:
Although Benedict likely subscribes to the Catholic notion that the Holy Spirit guides the selection of a pope, his decision to step down was surely guided by his experience of watching his predecessor, John Paul II, decline over a half-decade due to Parkinson's disease.
In his final years, John Paul was obliged to rest for many hours a day, used a wheelchair and became increasingly difficult to understand because of his slurred speech.
As John Paul's health deteriorated, Ratzinger and the rest of the Curia, or Vatican leadership, also watched as high-level decision-making normally reserved for a pope fell increasingly to John Paul's advisers, especially his confidant and secretary, Archbishop Stanislaw Dziwisz.
Those years spent watching his good friend decline, and a "de facto" pontiff move in to fill the vacuum, may have prompted Benedict to contemplate the need for a transfer of leadership in an era when medicine could prolong the life of an incapacitated pope.
That very topic was once so fraught that the Vatican would rarely acknowledge when a pope was ill. "The pope isn't sick until he's dead," went a long-standing joke.
But with Monday's announcement, Benedict appeared to put an end to that joke and the anxiety surrounding it. The famously traditionalist pontiff has created a new tradition - papal resignation - that promises to serve the Catholic Church well in the centuries ahead.
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