MikeLigalig.com

The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and a host of smaller parties refused a contest they said would be unfair unless supervised by a caretaker government of the kind seen in the previous four elections. But Sheikh Hasina scrapped the constitutional provision for that in 2011.

The BNP’s leader, Khaleda Zia, long a bitter rival to the prime minister, remains under what amounts to house arrest. Mohammad Hossain Ershad, a former dictator who leads the third-biggest party, Jatiyo, has been locked up in an army hospital since he belatedly joined the poll boycott. A fourth party, Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist and thuggish outfit, was banned from the polls for being too religious. On January 7th police arrested yet more opposition figures, including a close adviser to Mrs Zia as he left a meeting with journalists. Thousands of activists have been detained.

Political intimidation is officially explained away as an effort to stop the violence that has persisted since the AL claimed victory. On polling day alone, over 20 people were shot by police, or beaten or burned to death as rival goons from the BNP and the League clashed and as opposition thugs petrol-bombed buses, apparently to discourage voting. In some cases violent attacks appeared staged especially for television and other cameras.

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Foreigners will press for a new vote, but not firmly. Western countries all refused to send observers to the recent polls. On January 6th American, British and other governments lamented the violence and the flawed election in equal measure. Yet none has gone so far as to say that Sheikh Hasina’s victory, and thus her government, is illegitimate. Outsiders could threaten to cut aid or trade benefits (especially valuable duty-free access for clothes to the EU). But they will be wary of undermining laudable anti-poverty efforts.

So Sheikh Hasina probably thinks she can hold on. If she is seen to offer negotiations with Mrs Zia, that may be enough to buy her time. Official proposals for future elections are likely to include all-party caretaker administrations and a revamped election commission. But agreement on these would take months and may never be reached. Meanwhile the government will press the BNP hard to break ties with Jamaat.

Sheikh Hasina enjoys a degree of political cover. The biggest neighbour, India, did send observers to the polls, and praised her for holding them at all. Despite earlier Indian efforts to look even-handed, among Bangladeshis the perception is growing that India heavily favours Sheikh Hasina over her rivals. It is certainly eager to see Jamaat and other Islamists weakened.

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for more than 20 years, bangladeshi politics is all about two fighting women who can never reconcile.  it was never about ideology or political talent and brinkmanship.  it's just a clash of personalities and ambitions of two women who happen to be heirs of political leaders who were writ large in bangladeshi history.  if their bitter rivalry won't end violently, then the country would be lucky.

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