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By Sharon Begley | Reuters – 5 hrs ago
http://news.yahoo.com/





NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Americans stick to their eating and exercise habits, future historians will look back on the early 21st century as a golden age of svelte.

Using a model of population and other trends, a new report released on Tuesday by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation projects that half of U.S. adults will be obese by 2030 unless Americans change their ways.

The "F as in Fat" report highlights the current glum picture of the U.S. obesity epidemic, in which 35.7 percent of adults and 16.9 percent of children age 2 to 19 are obese, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported earlier this year.

But for the first time, the report builds on state-by-state data from the CDC to project obesity rates. In every state, that rate will reach at least 44 percent by 2030. In 13, that number would exceed 60 percent.

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'A TALE OF TWO FUTURES'

As with all projections, from climate models to Charles Dickens' "A Christmas Carol," human actions can prevent the worst of the scenarios, according to health policy experts.

"This is a tale of two futures," said Jeffrey Levi of George Washington University and the executive director of Trust for America's Health. "We're at a turning point where if we don't do something now to mitigate these trends, the cost in human health and healthcare spending will be enormous."

Obesity is defined as having a body mass index (BMI) above 30. Overweight means a BMI of 25 to 29.9. BMI is calculated by taking weight in pounds and dividing it by the square of height in inches, and multiplying the result by 703. For instance, someone who is 5 feet, 5 inches tall and weighs 185 pounds (84 kg) has a BMI of 30.8.

Obesity rates among U.S. adults have more than doubled from the 15 percent of 1980. In that same time, they have more than tripled among children.

Since the CDC found that the percentage of obese children and adults was essentially unchanged between 2008 and 2010, some experts question whether the "F as in Fat" model overstates future obesity by assuming past trends continue in a straight line.

"This is a strong assumption," said economist Justin Trogdon of RTI International in North Carolina. "Recent evidence from other surveys suggest obesity rates may be leveling off."

Mathematician Martin Brown of Britain's National Heart Forum, a nonprofit group, who led development of the model, said it takes a longer view by design.

"You have to take trends over a number of years," he said. "In the age groups that matter, there just isn't much evidence of a leveling off in obesity rates."

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States facing the greatest percentage increase in obesity-related medical costs are now in the middle of the pack.

New Jersey faces the largest increase in costs, 34.5 percent, as its obesity rate is projected to climb from 23.7 percent today to 48.6 percent in 2030. Eight other states could see increases of 20 percent and 30 percent, including New Hampshire, Colorado and Alaska.

Trust for America's Health sees room to change that trajectory with the right interventions.

"We have learned that with a concerted effort you can change the culture of a community, including its level of physical activity, eating habits, what foods are offered in schools, and whether families eat together," said Levi.

In New York City, for instance, obesity for elementary and middle-school students dropped 5.5 percent from the 2006-07 school year to 2010-11, thanks mostly to healthier school lunches, public health experts said.

"A lot of this is about making healthy choices easier and not mandating healthier lifestyles," Levi said.

(Additional reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago; Editing by Michele Gershberg, Philip Barbara)

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mao na ni resulta sa food stamps ni obama.mao ni naka pa weaken sa america. because we are becoming a socialist welfare state. just imagine more than 45 million americans are now on food stamps. full pack ang shopping carts sa mga welfare recipients. unja ako tawon mag shopping ug groceries.  limitado. lisod ning kahimtanga. kaming mga taxpayers maoy ga buhi aning 45 million. unja kami ang makalolooy.

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