MikeLigalig.com

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
Posted: 11/07/2013 3:59 pm EST  |  Updated: 11/07/2013 5:01 pm EST


From Climate Central's Andrew Freedman:

Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines, producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. The densely populated city of Manila, home to 12 million, is in the storm’s path, although it is predicted to escape the worst of the winds and storm surge.



Enhanced satellite image of Super Typhoon Haiyan showing the telltale "donut" appearance of an intense tropical cyclone. Credit: U-Wisconsin-CIMSS via Twitter/@Ryan_Maue.

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Ryan Maue, a meteorologist at WeatherBELL Analytics, said that Haiyan appears to be the strongest storm since Super Typhoon Tip in 1979. Maue said the storm has avoided the typical hiccups that other intense storms encounter, such as eyewall replacement cycles, during which a storm's inner core undergoes a reorganization. Such cycles can cause a Category 5 storm to weaken to a Category 3 or 4 storm, before re-strengthening. Instead of doing this, though, Haiyan has remained at peak strength for more than 24 hours, which is unusual, and even strengthened on Monday morning.

After hitting the Leyte province, the Philippines’ Department of Science and Technology expects the storm to traverse the central Philippines from Biliran to Busuanga before passing into the West Philippine Sea. The Department is warning coastal residents to expect storm surges “which may reach up to 7-meter (23 feet) wave height,” along with flooding and mudslides. The storm poses an especially grave danger to the capital of Leyte, the city of Tacloban, which has about 220,000 people and lies along or just to the north of the storm's path where the most intense winds and storm surge will come ashore.

For the past 24 hours, the storm has remained at a strength close to the theoretical upper limit that cyclones can reach. Unlike in the tropical North Atlantic, there is no aircraft reconnaissance of tropical storms and typhoons in the Western Pacific, so the actual wind speeds and minimum central air pressure — two key parameters used to classify such storms — are being estimated using satellites.

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Storm surge forecasts from the Philippines’ Project NOAH indicate a maximum storm tide (storm surge plus the tide level) of 16.4 feet at Ormoc in Leyte Province on November 8, with 14-16 foot storm tides occurring in the provinces of Palawan, Quezon, Biliran, and others. The storm tide forecast for Manila is 5 feet, but the city is so low-lying that flooding may still occur there.

Sea level rise from global warming is escalating the risk posed by storm surges across the globe, including in low-lying areas of the Philippines.

Aiding the storm’s development has been a plentiful supply of warm ocean waters, low atmospheric wind shear and plentiful amounts of warm, moist air surrounding the storm.

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Stark contrast to quiet Atlantic season

The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been far more active than the Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific this year. There was also a Category 5 storm in the Eastern Pacific this year.

Based on an index, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE, which incorporates the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in a season, the Western Pacific has had a slightly below-average storm season, although it has been closing the gap recently.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic has not had a Category 5 storm since Hurricane Felix in 1997, according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, and the U.S. has not had a landfalling major hurricane of Category 3 or greater since 2005, a record span. The North Atlantic Hurricane Season had an ACE index that is just 29 percent of normal to date, with just 12 named storms, two of which have been hurricanes.

Even more so than Florida is in the U.S., the Philippines are a tropical storm magnet. Haiyan will be the fourth typhoon to hit the Philippines this year alone, but the storms normally hit the northern islands, rather than the central and southern regions that Haiyan is targeting.

Last year, Super Typhoon Bopha hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, killing close to 2,000, and Haiyan may be the strongest storm ever to strike the Philippines.

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This image provided by the U.S. Naval Research Lab shows Typhoon Haiyan taken by the NEXSAT satellite Thursday Nov. 7, 2013 at 2:30 a.m. EDT. (AP Photo/US Naval Research Lab)

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Haiyan has already topped Utor as the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year.

"Three storms [Nari, Utor and Krosa] have crossed the Philippines at typhoon strength so far this year. All three tracked across Luzon, while Haiyan is headed toward the central Philippines," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak.

Rain and wind will increase across the central Philippines through Friday morning (local time) with conditions deteriorating from east to west through Friday night as the powerful typhoon crosses the islands.

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Haiyan will also produce a severe and inundating storm surge, especially along the eastern coast of southern Luzon and Samar islands.

Residents are urged to take the necessary precautions now ahead of Haiyan's approach and heed all evacuation orders issued by local officials.




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Why everyone is talking about the super typhoon
Doyle Rice and Alia E. Dastagir, USA TODAY 7:16 p.m. EST November 7, 2013


Super Typhoon Haiyan, which slammed into the Philippines early Friday morning, is one of the strongest storms ever recorded on the planet. Here are some fast facts about the storm:

• Super Typhoon Haiyan had winds of 195 mph and gusts of 235 mph. This is one of the highest wind speeds ever recorded in a storm in world history.

• It made landfall as the most powerful typhoon or hurricane in recorded history, as based on wind speed measurements from satellites.

• The strength of Haiyan is equal to that of an extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. (Typhoons are the same type of storms as hurricanes).

• No hurricane in the Atlantic has ever been this strong; Hurricane Camille hit the U.S. Gulf Coast with an estimated wind speed of 190 mph.

• The storm is over 300 miles wide: The width is about equal to the distance between Boston and Philadelphia.

• Haiyan is the fourth typhoon to hit the Philippines in 2013.

• The Philippines typically gets hit by more typhoons than any country on Earth, usually about six or seven each year.

• About 10 million people live on the central Philippine islands and are most at risk of a direct strike from Haiyan.

• A storm surge as high as 15 feet is possible in some parts of the Philippines.

• A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain is predicted to cross the central Philippines, which will lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

• Sea level rise from global warming is escalating the risk posed by storm surges across the globe, including in low-lying areas of the Philippines.

• Haiyan is the Chinese word for petrel, a type of bird that lives over the open sea and returns to land only for breeding.

• Haiyan is the 28th named storm of the 2013 Western Pacific typhoon season.

• The storm is known as Super Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines. The World Meteorological Organization officially assigns typhoon names, to have a consistent name for a storm, but other countries are free to create their own names too.

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