MikeLigalig.com

A few weeks ago I felt déjà vu from that day when I was speaking to a class of 20 Chinese grad students in Beijing. We got on the topic of the South China Sea and I expressed concern that a military conflict would break out there someday soon. One girl replied by saying, “I would welcome that.”

Other students chimed in, agreeing that they’d like to see China attack Vietnam or the Philippines. Some wanted to solidify territorial claims; others just wanted to “teach them a lesson” without specifying what exactly that lesson would be. If there were any dissenters in the class, they didn’t speak up.

Over the past few days tension has been rising between China and the Philippines over a disputed island. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed its readiness for battle, and a slew of editorials have said things like “peace will be a miracle if [Filipino] provocation lasts.”

This is nothing new. Brinksmanship over Chinese territorial claims happens pretty regularly. But after speaking with that class and looking at other current events, this time feels especially dangerous. Let’s pretend for a moment that we’re the Chinese government and weigh the pros and cons of going to war with the Philippines – ordered from least to most compelling.

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Pros

    China would control the disputed island and surrounding waters.

    It would send a message to other neighbors that China is serious about enforcing its territorial claims.

    It would end the impression that China will back down from potential conflict with the US. This would be useful internationally – especially with regards to Taiwan – but even more so domestically, to show the people that the government has the backbone to confront the US.

    It would greatly please the hawks in the military – a base which is absolutely essential for the CCP, as they’re the only real guarantors of continued authoritarian rule.

    As with most any war, it would consolidate nationalistic support from the people firmly behind the party, which would be a godsend amidst turbulent domestic issues (ie – economic turndown, rough leadership transition).





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To the writer from Sinostand:


Its been 2 years since this article was written, and there have yet to be any military action between China and the Philippines. Tho i am unhappy about the current geopolitical chill between Beijing and Manila, I'm thankful that both countries were strong enough to prevent military clashes. And I remain hopeful for diplomatic resolution to this territorial row.

Wo shi Zhongguo he Feilubin xuetong. Yao you zhong guo he Feilubin zhi jian de heping. Yong yuan heping !

你的兄弟,




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