By contrast, Labor's campaign frame was twisted to fit the leader. Critically, the ''new way'' did not involve a well-considered policy program or the sort of new ideas that are needed to sustain a campaign. The policies announced seemed like a collection of thought bubbles and greatest hits from a bygone era: the northern Australia policy, the relocation of a naval base from Sydney to somewhere up north, the fast train down the eastern seaboard, and even the federal takeover of TAFE.
The Labor policies lacked a coherent vision to tie them together; they appeared like desperate election overreach. Worse still, they seriously weakened Labor's credentials as an incumbent that could deliver stable, effective government. This was a precondition to an effective attack on the Coalition based on trust and the risk of cuts.
The bureaucratic rebuke of Labor's claim of a $10 billion hole in the Coalition's costings has been portrayed as the defining point in the campaign. But, for me, the ''birthday cake'' moment occurred when Rudd was interviewed by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders and was asked why he wanted to be elected for another three years. Rudd's answer was entirely retrospective. He could not articulate what he wanted to do in government for the next three years.
Saturday's election result has proved that Labor still runs the best ground game in Australian politics, with its field campaign in target seats effectively containing Labor's loss. Its volunteer effort resulted in more than 1.2 million telephone calls to undecided voters, and ''online donations'' has now become the biggest donor to the ALP.
But Labor faces a difficult question about whether it needs to update its long-standing message of ''jobs under Labor versus cuts under the Coalition''. This was extremely successful for Labor in the 2000s and helped produce wall-to-wall Labor governments for the first time since Federation. But it has now failed Labor in elections in Western Australia, Victoria, NSW and Queensland. And in the past three federal elections, Labor has finished the campaign on a lower two-party preferred vote than when it started.
A final, even harder question for Labor is how it remains relevant to its constituency in light of changes in Australian society. This is a challenge for all major parties, but for Labor it is acute given that two decades of decline has left its primary vote at a near record low.
Nicholas Reece is a public policy fellow at Melbourne University and a former Victorian ALP secretary and policy adviser to prime minister Julia Gillard.Linkback:
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