In recent years China has been positioning itself to be able to exert more control over the South China Sea, for instance by building militarized islands atop reefs. For Tokyo the waterway represents the cheapest, most direct way for importing energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, and other commodities from elsewhere. As a nation with few natural resources, Japan has a clear interest in keeping sea routes open—and little interest in seeing the sea become a “Chinese lake,†as some analysts warn of happening.
Japan has every reason, in other words, to keep Duterte on its side, despite the snub. Indeed the Philippine leader looks set to win a bonanza in aid and loans from Tokyo this week, especially for the economic development of Mindanao, the large southern island where he served as mayor of Davao City for many years.
Whatever Japan gives him, though, his romance with China will likely intensify. In recent days he invited Chinese president Xi Jinping to visit the Philippines “at a convenient time.†Xi readily accepted the invitation.
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