MikeLigalig.com

By Bernie Lopez
Philippine Daily Inquirer
12:30 am | Thursday, July 4th, 2013


It’s important for Filipinos to be aware of the probability of war between the United States and China because the Spratlys may be the flashpoint in such a development.

The probability is based on the emerging threat of China’s “antiaccess/antidenial capabilities (A2/AD),” or new weapons that will make it difficult for US carriers to ply China-Taiwan waters.

In 1996, China conducted missile tests and military exercises in the Strait of Taiwan. The United States responded by sending two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea. To America the issue was, hardly Taiwan’s independence, but US military superiority and pride. The US show of force was to remind China of America’s vast superiority. The move was a “deterrence” to China’s aggressive posture.

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The Pentagon’s goal was to respond to the “Chinese threat.” In truth it was a “US threat” on China’s turf. The Pentagon had a misguided mindset that America had a right to intrude into any territory on the planet—in layman’s terms, hegemony. There were two hurdles to a greater response. The first was the absence of a consensus from the civilian government, which pooh-poohed the Pentagon’s urgent cry of “Wolf! Wolf!” The second was the prospect that the cost of such an expensive war would dwarf that of US military interventions combined, and serve as the coup de grace for a US economic collapse. The Pentagon saw that China’s A2/AD would “raise the human and economic cost of [US presence] in the region to prohibitive levels.”

Two strategists, Andrew Marshall and Andrew Krepinevich, have been raising the alarm about China’s new capabilities since the early 1990s. A sophisticated US Air Force simulation war game in October 2008 called “Pacific Vision” triggered the conceptualization of the Air/Sea Battle (ASB) that could “execute networked, integrated attacks-in-depth to disrupt, destroy, and defeat the enemy (A2/AD).” The ASB strategy is a “blinding attack” on “Chinese antiaccess facilities, including land- and sea-based missile launchers, surveillance and communication platforms, satellite and antisatellite weapons, and command and control nodes.”

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Says Australian strategist Hugh White: “We can be sure that China will place a very high priority indeed on maintaining its capacity to strike the United States, and that it will succeed in this.” The ASB will surely accelerate Chinese response, as in the 1996 affair.

Joshua Rovner of the US Naval War College comments that “deep inland strikes could be mistakenly perceived by the Chinese as preemptive attempts to take out its nuclear weapons, thus cornering them into a terrible use-it-or-lose-it dilemma.” And since the ASB cannot be tested or simulated, it will forever be on the hypothetical plane. Its success will never be known until there is a real war.

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Agoi, zaon na lang. Patay tanan hasta ok-ok...

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China is a non-confrontational nation and will not want war. Both China and the United States are each others' largest trading partner. Nor do I think China would want war in the region, it would be contrary to regional stability and would doom the CCP's legitimacy to rule. No, I believe there will be status quo. China's irritation is natural considering the United States is 'pivoting' 60% of its Navy to Asia Pacific. Her (China's) agitation is natural, how would we feel if a Superpower were to send 6 of its 11 Nuclear-powered Nimitz Class Aircraft Carriers , and and associated battle groups and carrier task forces.

China knows that a war with America would be disastrous for both nations. And I don't think they (China and USA) are stupid enough to initiate war.



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Remember, friends, that both China and the United States are nuclear powers. A war between these two giants may lead to a hypothetical apocalyptic scenario, whole regions would be glassed. China has the capability of launching thermonuclear nuclear strikes, and so can the United States. Patay ta tanan. So it is to the best for everyone if these two giants were not to have "war". he he he, 'jaw lang uy.

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